GFI/BCCR Seminar: MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS). An operational convection permitting ensemble prediction system. Challenges and use

Morten Ødegaard Køltzow (MET-Norway)

Abstract:

The MetCoOp Ensemble Prediction System (MEPS) is a 10-member short-range convection permitting ensemble prediction system that has been operational since November 2016. MetCoOp is the cooperation around NWP production between Norway, Sweden and Finland. At MET-Norway MEPS is the main tool for short-range forecasts distributed via Yr.no, api.met.no, thredds.met.no, twitter, radio, television etc.

This talk will give a brief introduction to why we need convection permitting EPS by a few examples of predictability that differs on different spatial scales. Then MEPS will be presented; the MetCoOp organization; the NWP model (HARMONIE-AROME configuration of the Harmonie system); and the EPS configuration including the different perturbation techniques. Several operative and scientific challenges will be discussed. The present quality of the MEPS-system is further highlighted by verification and case studies. A brief description of how MEPS is used in daily forecasting at MET-Norway will be included together with an outlook on further use and development.