GFI/BCCR Seminar: Bias, variability and seasonal forecast in the Tropical Atlantic
Hovedinnhold
Chloé Prodhomme (Earth Department - Barcelona Supercomting Center)
Bias, variability and seasonal forecast in the Tropical Atlantic
Abstract
The Tropical Atlantic is a key region for its local and remote impacts. First, the local fisheries are strongly affected by the oceanic variability. Second, the Tropical Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature (SST) has been shown to influence strongly the rest of the tropics but also the European climate. However, this region suffers of large SST bias (up to 6º), widespread among most of the coupled models. The objective of the present seminar is to explore the processes responsible of the formation of those biases and their impacts on the representation of the variability both in long term simulations and seasonal forecasts.
Short biography
I did my PhD between 2010 and 2013 at the LOCEAN-IPSL under the supervision of Pascal Terray and Sébastien Masson. This thesis aimed at better understand the interactions between the Indian Monsoon and tropical Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs). Since 2013, I am working within the team of Pr. Francisco Doblas-Reyes as a postdoctoral fellow, first at the Institut Català de Ciències del Clima (IC3) and then at the Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). In these two positions, I have been working on the sources of skill at seasonal time scale. My research consists, on one side, in investigating the mechanisms underlying seasonal predictability and model errors, through analysis of case studies, multi-model comparison and investigation of coupled processes in the seasonal forecast systems. On the other side, I work on climate services and user engagement through analysis of seasonal forecast for heat-wave, drought and crop yield. Therefore, my research interests are ocean-atmosphere and land-atmosphere interactions and understanding the causes and consequences of the biases, mainly in a seasonal forecast context.
