GFI/BCCR Seminar: Decadal predictability of SST in the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea in three CMIP5 models

Helene Langehaug, NERSC:

Decadal predictability of SST in the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea in three CMIP5 models

Abstract
We have investigated predictability of SST in the Nordic Seas and Barents Sea, using hindcast simulations from three climate models (MPI-ESM-LR, CNRM-CM5, IPSL-CM5-LR). Initialization of the hindcasts is done every fifth year, starting in 1960. These hindcasts have been compared with HadISST data in the time period 1961 – 2010.

Only MPI-ESM-LR has significant skill in reproducing SST in the Atlantic domain at both short and at longer lead time (6-10 yrs). The two other models show significant skill at either short (CNRM-CM5) or longer lead time (IPSL-CM5, at 4-6 yrs). Investigating spatial maps of correlation skill at different lead times, domains of high skill appear to move from south to north in MPI-ESM-LR and IPSL-CM5. This could be caused by advection of SST anomalies from the south, contributing to higher skill at longer lead time.