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Forskerprofil

Noel Keenlyside

professor

Geofysisk institutt

Meteorologi

Klimadynamikk

Stilling: professor

Telefon: 55 58 20 32

E-post:

Besøksadresse: Allegt. 70

Current research interest

  • Decadal variability and predictability of climate
  • Tropical interannual climate variability and predictability
  • Past and future tropical and extra-tropical storm activity
  • Development of coupled climate models of intermediate to full complexity

Five recent publications

 

 

Employment

2011 - Professor, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen

2008 -  Head, Emmy Noether Research Group, IFM-GEOMAR/GFI

2005-2008 Research Scientist, IFM-GEOMAR

2003-2005 Postdoctoral fellow, IFM-GEOMAR (formerly IFM), University of Kiel

2001-2003 Postdoctoral fellow, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

1997-2001 Tutor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Monash University

Education

1997-2001  Doctor of Philosophy, Monash University, Australia

1996 First Class Honours in Physics, University of Tasmania

1992-1995   Bachelor of Science (Physics and Mathematics), University of Tasmania

Awards

2007 Fellow in the Emmy Noether Program of the DFG (German Research Foundation)

2006 NORBERT GERBIER - MUMM International Award

Publikasjoner i Cristin

Google user profile

Submitted manuscripts

  • Gao, Y., J. Sun, F. Li, S. He, S. Sandven, Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, K. Lohmann, N. Keenlyside, T. Furevik, L. Suo, Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: a review, submitted
  • Omrani, N.-E., J. Bader, N. S. Keenlyside and E. Manzini, Troposphere-stratosphere response to large-scale North Atlantic Ocean variability in an atmosphere/ocean coupled model, Clim. Dyn. submitted
  • King, M.P., M. Hell, N. Keenlyside, Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere, submitted
  • Reintges, A., T. Martin, M. Latif, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2012: Uncertainty in Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Projections for the 21st Century and the North Atlantic/Arctic Freshwater Budget, submitted to J.Clim
  • Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, W. Park, and S. Wahl, 2013: The Impact of Mean State Errors on the Simulated Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability. JGR Oceans, Submitted.
  • Omrani, N.-E., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2013: Tropical Ocean Control of Northern Hemisphere Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change. submitted.

Peer-reviewed

  1. Tseng, W.-L., B.-J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H.-H. Hsu, and C.-Y. Tu, Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., accepted
  2. Svendsen, L., S. Hetzinger, N. S. Keenlyside, and Y. Gao, 2014: Marine-based multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic multi-decadal variability. Geophys. Res. Lett., 41, 2013GL059076
  3. Counillon, F., I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino, and F. Zheng, 2014: Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66, 21074
  4. Ba, J., and Coauthors, 2013: A multi-model comparison for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim Dyn. accepted.
  5. Keenlyside, N.S., J. Ba, J. Mecking, N.-O., Omrani, M. Latif, R. Zhang, and R. Msadek, North Atlantic multi-decadal variability - mechanisms and predictability, In: Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond, Editors: Chih-Pei Chang, Michael Ghil, Mojib Latif, Mike Wallace, accepted
  6. Mecking, J.V., N.S. Keenlyside, and R.J. Greatbatch, Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the 2 North Atlantic: A model study, Clim. Dyn., 1-18
  7. Gleixner, S., N. Keenlyside, K. Hodges, W.-L. Tseng and L. Bengtsson, An inter-hemispheric comparison of the Tropical Storm response to global warming. Climate Dynamics, 42, 2147-2157
  8. Svendsen, L., N.G. Kvamstø, and N.S. Keenlyside, 2013: Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. Clim. Dyn., 1-11
  9. Omrani, N.-E., N. S. Keenlyside, J. Bader and E. Manzini, 2013: Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions, Clim. Dyn., 1-15
  10. Gulev, S.K., M. Latif, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, and K. P. Koltermann, 2013: North Atlantic Ocean Control on Surface Heat Flux at Multidecadal Timescales, Nature, 499, 464-467
  11. Keenlyside, N., H. Ding, and M. Latif, 2013: Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño PredictionGRL, 40, 2278-2283.
  12. Hand, R., N. S. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani and M. Latif, 2013: Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region, Clim. Dyn, 1-17
  13. Pohlmann, H., D. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, and P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics, 41, 775-785
  14. Ba, J., N. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, E. Hawkins, and H. Ding, 2013: A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics, 41, 2133-2144
  15. Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif (2012), Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern Oscillation, Climate Dynamics, 38(9), 1965-1972.
  16. Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N. Keenlyside, V. Semenov, and T. Martin (2012), Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments, Climate Dynamics, 38(9), 1757-1773
  17. Hetzinger, S., J. Halfar, J. V. Mecking, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Kronz, R. S. Steneck, W. H. Adey, and P. A. Lebednik (2012), Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate, Climate Dynamics, 39(6), 1447-1455
  18. Champion, A. J., K. I. Hodges, L. O. Bengtsson, N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Esch, 2011: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography63, 893-906.
  19. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, S. Koumoutsaris, M. Zahn, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: The changing atmospheric water cycle in Polar Regions in a warmer climate. Tellus Series a-Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography63, 907-920.
  20. Bader, J., M. D. S. Mesquita, K. I. Hodges, N. Keenlyside, S. Østerhus, and M. Miles, 2011: A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes.Atmospheric Research101, 809-834.
  21. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2011: A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability. Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography58, 1880-1894.
  22. Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Climate Dynamics, 1-15.
  23. Tozuka, T., T. Doi, T. Miyasaka, N. Keenlyside, and T. Yamagata, 2011: Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal sea surface temperature gradient in a coupled general circulation model. J. Geophys. Res. Oce., 116.
  24. Keenlyside, N. S., and J. Ba, 2010: Prospects for decadal climate prediction, Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 1, 627-635
  25. Semenov, V. A., M. Latif, D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Strehz, T. Martin, and W. Park, 2010: The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature. Journal of Climate, 23, 5668-5677.
  26. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2010: Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability: the role of heat content, J. Geophys. Res. Oce., 115, C09020
  27. Lübbecke, J. F., C. W. Böning, N. S. Keenlyside, and S.-P. Xie, 2010: On the connection between Benguela and Equatorial Atlantic Niños and the role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone, J. Geophys. Res. Oce., 115, C09015
  28. Lan, Y. Y., B. J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, S. L. Wang, C. T. A. Chen, B.J. Wang, and T.H Liu, 2010: Error estimations of dry deposition velocities of air pollutants using bulk sea surface temperature under common assumptions. Atmospheric Environment, 44, 2532-2542, Doi 10.1016/J.Atmosenv.2010.04.021
  29. Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel, 2009: ENSEMBLES - a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, Geophys. Res. Letts. Vol. 36, No. 21, L21711
  30. Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, & T. Stockdale, 2009: Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 90, 1467-1485
  31. Wahl, S., M. Latif, W. Park, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate Model, Climate Dyn., DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0690-9
  32. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith, T. N. Palmer, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts, Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 135, 1538 - 1559
  33. Latif, M., W. Park, H. Ding, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Internal and External North Atlantic Sector Variability in the Kiel Climate Model,Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, 433-443
  34. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif 2009: Seasonal cycle in the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean, J. Geophys. Res., 114, C09016, doi:10.1029/2009JC005418
  35. Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2009: Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A Multimodel comparison. Climate Dyn., DOI  - 10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2
  36. Zhou, T., R. Yu, J. Zhang, H. Drange, C. Cassou, C. Deser, D. L. R. Hodson, E. Sanchez-Gomez , J. Li, N. Keenlyside, X. Xin, Y. Okumura, 2009: Why the Western Pacific Subtropical High has Extended Westward since the Late 1970s?, J. Climate, 22, 2199–2215
  37. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009:  Will extra-tropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301
  38. Jansen, M. F., D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside, 2009: Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework, J. Climate, 22, 550–567
  39. Park, W., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Stroeh, R. Redler, E. Roeckner, G. Madec, 2009: Tropical Pacific Climate and its Response to Global Warming in the Kiel Climate Model, J. Climate, 22 (1), 71-92
  40. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2008: El Niño/Southern Oscillation Response to Global Warming, PNAS, doi:10.1073/pnas.0710860105
  41. 26.  Sanchez-Gomez, E., C. Cassou, D. L. R. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okmura, and T. Zhou, 2008: Multi-model signature of the Indian and Western Pacific oceans warming in the occurrence of the North Atlantic weather regimes, Geophys. Res. Letts., 35, L15706
  42. Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88
  43. Matei, D., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Jungclaus, 2008: Subtropical Forcing of Tropical Pacific Climate and Decadal ENSO Modulation. J. Climate, 21, 4691-4709
  44. Hetzinger, S., M. Pfeiffer, W.-C. Dullo, N.S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Zinke, 2008: Caribbean Brain Coral Tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Past Hurricane Intensity. Geology, 36, 11-14
  45. Latif, M., C. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, F. Alvarez, N. S. Keenlyside, and H. Pohlmann, 2007: Decadal to Multidecadal Variability of the Atlantic MOC: Mechanisms and Predictability. In AGU Monograph 173 “Ocean Circulation: Mechanisms and Impacts – Past and Future Changes of Meridional  Overturning”, A. Schmittner, J.C.H. Chiang, and S.R. Hemming (Eds.), 149 -166
  46. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. S. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may Tropical Cyclones Change in a Warmer Climate? Tellus, 59A, 539-561
  47. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, A. Dürkop, 2007: On Sub-ENSO variability. J. Climate, 20, 3452–3469
  48. Latif, M., N. Keenlyside, and J. Bader, 2007: Tropical Sea Surface Temperature, Vertical Wind Shear, and Hurricane Development, Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L01710, doi:10.1029/2006GL027969
  49. Keenlyside, N., and M. Latif, 2007: Understanding Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability, J. Climate, 20, 131-142
  50. Latif, M. M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A Review of Predictability Studies of Atlantic Sector Climate on Decadal Time Scales, J. Climate, 19, 5971–5987
  51. Latif, M., C. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, J. Dengg, N. Keenlyside, and U. Schweckendiek, G. Madec, 2006: Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?, J. Climate, 19, 4631-4637
  52. Jungclaus, J. H., N. Keenlyside, M. Botzet, H. Haak, J.-J. Luo, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, U. Mikolajewicz, and E. Roeckner, 2006: Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Climate, 19, 3952-3972
  53. Wetzel, P., E. Maier-Reimer, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2006: Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model, J. Climate, 19, 3973-3987
  54. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2005: Retrospective El Niño hindcasts/forecasts using an improved intermediate coupled model, Mon. Weath. Rev., 133, 2777-2802
  55. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, and U. Schulzweida, 2005: A coupled method for initialising ENSO forecasts using SST, Tellus, 57A, 340-356
  56. Zhang, R.-H., R. Kleeman, S. E. Zebiak, N. Keenlyside, and S. Raynaud, 2005: An empirical parameterization of subsurface entrainment temperature for improved SST anomaly simulations in an intermediate ocean model, J. Climate, 18(2), 350-371
  57. Palmer, T.N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Délécluse, M. Déqué, E. Díez, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J.-F. Guérémy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A. P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J.-M. Terres and M. C. Thomson, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 85(6), 853-872
  58. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2003: A new intermediate coupled model for El Niño simulation and prediction, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(19), 2012, doi:10.1029/2003GL018010
  59. Keenlyside, N., and R. Kleeman, 2002: Annual cycle of equatorial zonal currents in the Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (8), 10.1029/2000JC000711
  60. Arif, I., I. A. Newman, and N. Keenlyside, 1995: Theoretical paper: Proton flux measurements from tissues in buffered solution, Plant, Cell and Environment, 18, 1319-1324

Non-peer-reviewed publications

  • Keenlyside, N. S., 2011: Commentary on "Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change"International Journal of Forecasting,27, 1000-1003.
  • Murphy, J., V. Kattsov, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, J. Meehl, V. Mehta, H. Pohlmann, A. Scaife, D. Smith, 2009: Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change, White paper for World Climate Conference - 3
  • Hurrell, J., T. Delworth, G. Danabasoglu, H. Drange, S. Griffies, N. Holbrook, B. Kirtman, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, G. Meehl, T. Palmer, H. Pohlmann, T. Rosati, R. Seager, D. Smith, R. Sutton, A. Timmermann, K. Trenberth, and J.Tribbia, 2009, Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges, Community White Papers for OceanObs'09
  • Latif, M., T. Delworth, D. Dommenget, H. Drange, W. Hazeleger, J. Hurrell, N. Keenlyside, G. Meehl, and R. Sutton, 2009: Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction, Community White Papers for OceanObs'09
  • N. Keenlyside, 2009: Clean air policy and Arctic warming, Nature Geosciences (News & Views), 2, 243 - 244
  • N. Keenlyside, N. Omrani, K. Krüger, M. Latif and A. Scaife, 2008: Decadal predictability: How might the stratosphere be involved? SPARC Newsletter 31, 23-27
  • Latif, M. M. Collins, R. J. Stouffer, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2004: The physical basis for prediction of Atlantic sector climate on decadal timescales, CLIVAR Exchanges 9, 6-8

Courses

GEOF327: The General Circulation of the Atmosphere

GEOF212: Physical Climatology

Current

2014-2016 NordForsk TRI, Impact of Future Cryospheric Changes on Northern Hemisphere. Climate, Green Growth and Society (GREENICE)

2013-2017 NFR, Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)

2014-2017 EU FP7, Enhancing prediction of Tropical Atlantic climate and its impacts (PREFACE)

2012-2016 EU: Marie Curie Career Integration Grants (CIG), Strategies toward enhancing prediction of climate and its impacts (STEPS)

2010-2013 EU: STREP, Supermodeling by combining imperfect models (SUMO)

 

Previous (selected)

2008-2013 Emmy Noether research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG): "Mechanisms and predictability of North Atlantic Decadal Climate variability"

2009-2011 German Research Foundation (DFG) – Japan Society for the Promotion Science (JSPS): Atmospheric response to Gulf Stream and Kuroshio variability: its role in the climate system

2005-2008 Joint DFG - Taiwan NSC scientific exchange grant: Scale Interactions in a Coupled Climate Model