- E-postsveinung.arnesen@uib.no
- Telefon+47 55 58 25 58
- BesøksadresseChristies gate 175007 Bergen
- PostadressePostboks 78025020 Bergen
Politisk atferd, demokrati, og opinion.
Kvantitative metoder i samfunnsvitenskapen
Det amerikanske politiske systemet
Vitenskapelig artikkel
- (2023). Look to Denmark or not? An experimental study of the Social Democrats’ strategic choices. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 6 sider.
- (2023). Beyond the Myth of Legality? Framing Effects and Public Reactions to High Court Decisions in Europe. Comparative Political Studies. 1537-1566.
- (2022). How to be Gracious about Political Loss—The Importance of Good Loser Messages in Policy Controversies. Comparative Political Studies.
- (2021). Support for electoral system reform among voters and politicians: Studying information effects through survey experiments. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy.
- (2019). Påvirker innvandringsscenarier nordmenns holdninger til innvandrere? Et surveyeksperiment. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 123-139.
- (2019). Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift. 62-76.
- (2019). Do citizens make inferences from political candidate characteristics when aiming for substantive representation? Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 46-60.
- (2019). Conditional Legitimacy: How Turnout, Majority Size and Outcome Affect Perceptions of Legitimacy in EU Membership Referendums. European Union Politics. 176-197.
- (2018). Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets. International Journal of Forecasting. 408-419.
- (2018). Could information about herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity? Evidence from a population representative survey experiment. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 854-858.
- (2017). The Legitimacy of Representation: How Descriptive, Formal, and Responsiveness Representation Affect the Acceptability of Political Decisions. Comparative Political Studies. 868-899.
- (2017). Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favourability: Results from General Population Survey Experiments. Political Studies. 146-161.
- (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Investigating Poll Feedback Loops Using the Novel Dynamic Response Feedback Experimental Procedure. Social science computer review. 735-743.
- (2016). Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 144-150.
- (2016). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. Nordiske organisasjonsstudier. 53-73.
- (2014). Prediction Markets vs Polls – an Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections. The Journal of Prediction Markets. 24-33.
- (2013). ACCURACY AND BIAS IN EUROPEAN PREDICTION MARKETS. Statistica Applicata. 123-138.
- (2012). Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office. International Journal of Forecasting. 789-796.
- (2011). Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 99-121.
- (2011). How prediction markets help us understand events‵ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections. The Journal of Prediction Markets. 42-63.
Rapport
- (2022). Hvordan gjennomføre borgerpanel. .
- (2022). Demokratiske algoritmer. .
- (2021). Deliberativ meningsmåling i Bergen. .
- (2019). Frivillighetens grunnfjell: Hvem gir mest tid og penger til frivillige organisasjoner? 2019:1. 2019:1. .
- (2018). Organisasjonsengasjement blant innvandrarar. 3. 3. .
- (2018). Norwegian Citizen Panel 2018: Study Documentation and data set. .
- (2017). Do Polls Influence Opinions? Testing the Spiral of Silence using a Dynamic Response Feedback Algorithm. 1. 1. .
- (2013). Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. 2013:001. 2013:001. .
- (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. .
- (2013). Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. .
- (2013). Frivillig deltakelse i Norden : Et komparativt perspektiv. 2013-2. 2013-2. .
- (2009). Penger og politikk. .
Faglig foredrag
- (2022). Look to Denmark or Not? An Experimental Study of the Social Democrats' Strategic Choices.
Populærvitenskapelig foredrag
- (2022). Arendalsuka 2022: Er det liberale demokratiet i krise?
- (2008). Prediksjon av det amerikanske presidentvalget 2008.
Vitenskapelig foredrag
- (2023). How Partisan Selective Exposure May Not Be What You Think It Is.
- (2019). The Bounded Legitimacy of Majority Rule.
- (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums.
- (2018). By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums.
- (2017). Referendums as the wiggle room of democracy.
- (2015). Opinion Polls’ Effect on Public Opinion - Presentation of A Time Series Survey Experiment Design.
- (2015). Opinion Polls' Effect on Political Attitudes - Results from a time-series survey experiment in a general population web panel.
- (2015). Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion? A time-series surey experiment on the effect of polls on public opinion.
- (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – Results from a real money experiment in a general population survey.
- (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy.
- (2014). The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy.
- (2012). Valgdeltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011.
- (2011). How prediction markets can help us understand events´impact on the vote in presidential elections.
- (2009). Kan man forutsi valgresultater? Resultater fra de amerikanske presidentvalgene i 2004 og 2008.
Leserinnlegg
- (2008). Ingen sviktende prediksjoner. Morgenbladet.
Anmeldelse
- (2009). Amerikansk politikk - politisk system og politisk tenkning. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 403-405.
Kronikk
- (2023). Lite å hente for Ap på et linjeskift. Dagensnæringsliv.
- (2015). Valgets egentlige helter. Bergens Tidende.
Doktorgradsavhandling
- (2012). Leaping into the unknown: Comparing, testing and applying methods of predicting elections.
Intervju
- (2013). Valg i P2.
- (2013). Pølser og politikk.
- (2013). Norway's centre-right on course for election win.
- (2013). History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September’s elections.
- (2013). Following Monday’s elections, Norway has taken a firm step to the right.
- (2013). Els candidats han eludit la massacre d'Utoya en campanya.
- (2013). Dette står på spill.
- (2011). Valgkommentar i Vestlandsrevyen, NRK Hordaland.
- (2008). Kjøpe aksjar på valresultat?
- (2008). Kjøpe Siv-aksjer?
Programdeltagelse
- (2013). TV-intervju om regjeringssammensetningen.
- (2013). Studio BT, valgsending.
- (2013). Studio BT, valgsending.
- (2013). Studio BT, valgsending.
Vitenskapelig Kapittel/Artikkel/Konferanseartikkel
- (2021). Loddet er kastet: Om bruken av innbyggerpaneler i lokalpolitikken. 31 sider.
- (2017). Har kommunevalgkampen noen betydning? 18 sider.
- (2015). Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkte und in Umfragen. 23 sider.
- (2013). Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. 26 sider.
- (2012). Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. 23 sider.
- (2012). Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse. 34 sider.
Vitenskapelig oversiktsartikkel/review
- (2008). Always with the drama. Stat og styring. 20-22.
Faglig kapittel
- (2020). Demokratisk legitimitet – betydning av representasjon og prosess. 19-35. I:
- (2020). Det norske lokaldemokratiets legitimitet. Tillit, deltakelse og ulikhet. 2020:10. 2020:10. .
Se fullstendig oversikt over publikasjoner i CRIStin.
Se CV for oppdatert liste av publikasjoner.
• Democratic innovation in practice: Investigating real-world participatory processes and their influence on democratic legitimacy.” Research Council of Norway project grant, NOK 5.5 million awarded for the period 2019-2023. Role: Principal Scientific Investigator.
• “The Norwegian Local Election Studies of 2019 and 2023”, NOK 12 million awarded for the period2019-2024. Role: Project team member.
• “The Challenge from Terrorism in the Nordic Countries: An analysis of citizens’ reactions, policy responses and legitimacy”, Nordic Research Council (NORDFORSK) project grant, NOK 9 million awarded for the period 2018-2022. Role: Core team member of PI institution.
• “Forskning på demokrati og tillit og politisk ulikhet” (“Research on democracy, trust, and political inequality”), NOK 1.3 million awarded for the period 2018-2020. Role: Core project team member.
• “Can Fair Decision-Making Procedures Increase The Legitimacy of Democracies?”, NOK 8 million awarded for the period 2017-2021, Norwegian Research Council as Young Research Talent for the project. Role: Principal Investigator.