• E-mailandrea.saltelli@uib.no
  • Visitor Address
    Parkveien 9
    Ida Bloms hus
    5007 Bergen
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7805
    5020 Bergen

Andrea Saltelli has worked on physical chemistry, environmental sciences, applied statistics, impact assessment and science for policy. His main disciplinary focus is on sensitivity analysis of model output, a discipline where statistical tools are used to interpret the output from mathematical or computational models, and on sensitivity auditing, an extension of sensitivity analysis to the entire evidence-generating process in a policy context. An application to water security can be found here.  

He lives and works in Barcelona. His recent research includes a collaboration with Paul-Marie Boulanger on applications of the theories of Niklas Luhmann (1,2), and with Erik Reinert and other scholars on responsible modelling and the ethics of quantification. A work on post-thruth was published with Dan Sarewitz in June 2022. He continues his work on sensitivity analysis with Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano and others. 

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See my lectures - presentation

Video on Science and Reformation June 2022

Video on Ethics of Quantification curated by the Open University of Catalonia, September 2021, Barcelona.

Video on Science and Regulatory Capture, May 2021, L'Aquila (I).


See Andrea Saltelli on ORCID

See Andrea Saltelli on Google Scholar

Overview of publications in Cristin:

  • Show author(s) (2023). What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification? Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2023). The more things change, the more they stay the same: promises of bioeconomy and the economy of promises. Sustainability Science.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Teaching scientific research integrity: A case study. Innovations in Education & Teaching International. 1-14.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science and Policy. 99-111.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
  • Show author(s) (2022). The Challenge of Quantification: An Interdisciplinary Reading. Minerva.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates. Science Advances. 1-11.
  • Show author(s) (2022). L’incontro con la scienza post-normale. 5 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies. Environmental Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Improving the reliability of cohesion policy databases. PLOS ONE.
  • Show author(s) (2022). A COMPREHENSIVE COMPARISON OF TOTAL-ORDER ESTIMATORS FOR GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification. 1-18.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Variable Selection in Regression Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of Time Series Econometrics. 187-233.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Strange Numbers of Covid-19. Argumenta. 97-107.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Immunity Capital. Argumenta. 109-116.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support. Environmental Modelling & Software. 21 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Sensitivity analysis: A discipline coming of age. Environmental Modelling & Software.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol’ indices? Environmental Modelling & Software.
  • Show author(s) (2020). The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability. Environmental Science and Policy. 87-98.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 8 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Sustainable development goals - discussion.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator. Social Indicators Research. 775-802.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Post-normal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science. Blog of ESRC STEPS (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability) Centre.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Pandemie post-normali. Perché CoViD-19 richiede un nuovo approccio alla scienza. Recenti Progressi in Medicina. 202-204.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, . Nature. 482-484.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscation and performative legitimation. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 11 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Current models underestimate future irrigated areas. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) (2020). A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index. Environmental Modelling & Software. 1-7.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices. Environmental Modelling & Software. 29-39.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes. Nature. 481-484.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Stop pretending: quantification is never neutral). Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 121-123.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Frontiers in Energy Research.
  • Show author(s) (2019). A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling. Nature Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 85-90.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue. Nature. 281-281.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 1-3.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis. Significance.
  • Show author(s) (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 62-71.
  • Show author(s) (2017). What is science’s crisis really about? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 5-11.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Statistics at the time of the crisis [Statistiche al tempo della crisi]. Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 165-169.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Problematic Quantifications: a Critical Appraisal of Scenario Making for a Global ‘Sustainable’ Food Production. Food Ethics. 173-179.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Post-normal institutional identities: Quality assurance, reflexivity and ethos of care. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 53-61.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. 20 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy? International Journal of Comparative Education and Development. 20-34.
  • Show author(s) (2015). Policy: The future of public trust in science. Nature. 161.
  • Show author(s) (2013). What do i make of your latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. 213-234.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)