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Andrea Saltelli has worked on physical chemistry, environmental sciences, applied statistics, impact assessment and science for policy. His main disciplinary focus is on sensitivity analysis of model output, a discipline where statistical tools are used to interpret the output from mathematical or computational models, and on sensitivity auditing, an extension of sensitivity analysis to the entire evidence-generating process in a policy context. An application to water security can be found here.
He lives and works in Barcelona. His recent research includes a collaboration with Paul-Marie Boulanger on applications of the theories of Niklas Luhmann (1,2), and with Erik Reinert and other scholars on responsible modelling and the ethics of quantification. A work on post-thruth was published with Dan Sarewitz in June 2022. He continues his work on sensitivity analysis with Arnald Puy, Samuele Lo Piano and others.
See Andrea Saltelli on ORCID
See Andrea Saltelli on Google Scholar
Overview of publications in Cristin:
- (2023). What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification? Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
- (2023). The more things change, the more they stay the same: promises of bioeconomy and the economy of promises. Sustainability Science.
- (2023). Teaching scientific research integrity: A case study. Innovations in Education & Teaching International. 1-14.
- (2023). Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science and Policy. 99-111.
- (2022). Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
- (2022). The Challenge of Quantification: An Interdisciplinary Reading. Minerva.
- (2022). Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates. Science Advances. 1-11.
- (2022). L’incontro con la scienza post-normale. 5 pages.
- (2022). Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies. Environmental Research Letters.
- (2022). Improving the reliability of cohesion policy databases. PLOS ONE.
- (2022). A COMPREHENSIVE COMPARISON OF TOTAL-ORDER ESTIMATORS FOR GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification. 1-18.
- (2021). Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
- (2021). Variable Selection in Regression Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of Time Series Econometrics. 187-233.
- (2021). The Strange Numbers of Covid-19. Argumenta. 97-107.
- (2021). The Immunity Capital. Argumenta. 109-116.
- (2021). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support. Environmental Modelling & Software. 21 pages.
- (2021). Sensitivity analysis: A discipline coming of age. Environmental Modelling & Software.
- (2021). Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
- (2021). Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol’ indices? Environmental Modelling & Software.
- (2020). The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability. Environmental Science and Policy. 87-98.
- (2020). Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 8 pages.
- (2020). Sustainable development goals - discussion.
- (2020). Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator. Social Indicators Research. 775-802.
- (2020). Post-normal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science. Blog of ESRC STEPS (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability) Centre.
- (2020). Pandemie post-normali. Perché CoViD-19 richiede un nuovo approccio alla scienza. Recenti Progressi in Medicina. 202-204.
- (2020). Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, . Nature. 482-484.
- (2020). Ethics of quantiﬁcation: illumination, obfuscation and performative legitimation. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
- (2020). Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 11 pages.
- (2020). Current models underestimate future irrigated areas. Geophysical Research Letters.
- (2020). A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index. Environmental Modelling & Software. 1-7.
- (2019). Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices. Environmental Modelling & Software. 29-39.
- (2019). Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes. Nature. 481-484.
- (2019). Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Stop pretending: quantification is never neutral). Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 121-123.
- (2019). Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Frontiers in Energy Research.
- (2019). A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling. Nature Communications.
- (2018). Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 85-90.
- (2018). Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue. Nature. 281-281.
- (2018). Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 1-3.
- (2018). Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis. Significance.
- (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 62-71.
- (2017). What is science’s crisis really about? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 5-11.
- (2017). Statistics at the time of the crisis [Statistiche al tempo della crisi]. Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 165-169.
- (2017). Problematic Quantifications: a Critical Appraisal of Scenario Making for a Global ‘Sustainable’ Food Production. Food Ethics. 173-179.
- (2017). Post-normal institutional identities: Quality assurance, reflexivity and ethos of care. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 53-61.
- (2017). Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. 20 pages.
- (2017). Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy? International Journal of Comparative Education and Development. 20-34.
- (2015). Policy: The future of public trust in science. Nature. 161.
- (2013). What do i make of your latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. 213-234.
A book is in preparation with Oxford University Press entitled "Views on respondible modelling."
I am reflecting with some colleagues on a possible observatory on Ethics of Quantification; here a working paper:
Saltelli, A., Andreoni, A., Drechsler W., Ghosh, J., Kattel, R., Kvangraven, I. H., Rafols, I., Reinert, E. S., Stirling, A. and Xu, T. (2021). Why ethics of quantification is needed now. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2021/05).
and a seminar with fellow scholars:
Webinar on ‘Ethics of quantification’, with Andrea Saltelli, Wendy Espeland, & Andy Stirling. The webinar is organized by CWTS Hub on Engagement and Responsibility in R&I, CWTS, Leiden, February 5, 2021.