- Visitor AddressParkveien 9Ida Bloms hus5007 Bergen
- Postal AddressPostboks 78055020 Bergen
Andrea Saltelli has worked on physical chemistry, environmental sciences, applied statistics, impact assessment and science for policy. His main disciplinary focus is on sensitivity analysis of model output, a discipline where statistical tools are used to interpret the output from mathematical or computational models, and on sensitivity auditing, an extension of sensitivity analysis to the entire evidence-generating process in a policy context. He lives and works in Barcelona. His most recent research includes a collaboration with Paul-Marie Boulanger on applications of the theories of Niklas Luhmann (1,2), and with Erik Reinert and other scholars on responsible modelling and the ethics of quantification.
See Andrea Saltelli on ORCID
See Andrea Saltelli on Google Scholar
- (2022). Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies. Environmental Research Letters.
- (2021). Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
- (2021). Variable Selection in Regression Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of Time Series Econometrics. 187-233.
- (2021). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support. Environmental Modelling & Software. 21 pages.
- (2021). Sensitivity analysis: A discipline coming of age. Environmental Modelling & Software.
- (2021). Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
- (2021). Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol’ indices? Environmental Modelling & Software.
- (2020). The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability. Environmental Science and Policy. 87-98.
- (2020). Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 8 pages.
- (2020). Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator. Social Indicators Research. 775-802.
- (2020). Pandemie post-normali. Perché CoViD-19 richiede un nuovo approccio alla scienza. Recenti Progressi in Medicina. 202-204.
- (2020). Ethics of quantiﬁcation: illumination, obfuscation and performative legitimation. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
- (2020). Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 11 pages.
- (2020). Current models underestimate future irrigated areas. Geophysical Research Letters.
- (2020). A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index. Environmental Modelling & Software. 1-7.
- (2019). Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices. Environmental Modelling & Software. 29-39.
- (2019). Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Frontiers in Energy Research.
- (2019). A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling. Nature Communications.
- (2018). Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 85-90.
- (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 62-71.
- (2017). What is science’s crisis really about? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 5-11.
- (2017). Statistics at the time of the crisis [Statistiche al tempo della crisi]. Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 165-169.
- (2017). Problematic Quantifications: a Critical Appraisal of Scenario Making for a Global ‘Sustainable’ Food Production. Food Ethics. 173-179.
- (2017). Post-normal institutional identities: Quality assurance, reflexivity and ethos of care. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 53-61.
- (2017). Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy? International Journal of Comparative Education and Development. 20-34.
- (2018). Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 1-3.
- (2019). Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Stop pretending: quantification is never neutral). Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 121-123.
- (2018). Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis. Significance.
- (2020). Post-normal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science. Blog of ESRC STEPS (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability) Centre.
- (2018). Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue. Nature. 281-281.
- (2017). Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. 20 pages.
- (2020). Sustainable development goals - discussion.
- (2020). Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, . Nature. 482-484.
- (2019). Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes. Nature. 481-484.
At present I am reflecting with some colleagues on a possible observatory on Ethics of Quantification; here a working paper:
Saltelli, A., Andreoni, A., Drechsler W., Ghosh, J., Kattel, R., Kvangraven, I. H., Rafols, I., Reinert, E. S., Stirling, A. and Xu, T. (2021). Why ethics of quantification is needed now. UCL Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, Working Paper Series (IIPP WP 2021/05).
and a seminar with fellow scholars:
Webinar on ‘Ethics of quantification’, with Andrea Saltelli, Wendy Espeland, & Andy Stirling. The webinar is organized by CWTS Hub on Engagement and Responsibility in R&I, CWTS, Leiden, February 5, 2021.