• Visitor Address
    Parkveien 9
    Ida Bloms hus
    5007 Bergen
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7805
    5020 Bergen

Andrea Saltelli has worked on physical chemistry, environmental sciences, applied statistics, impact assessment and science for policy. His main disciplinary focus is on sensitivity analysis of model output, a discipline where statistical tools are used to interpret the output from mathematical or computational models, and on sensitivity auditing, an extension of sensitivity analysis to the entire evidence-generating process in a policy context.

He has worked at the European Commission, leading between 2005 and 2015 a unit of econometrics and applied statistics. From November 2016 till June 2020 adjunct professor at the Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities (SVT) - University of Bergen (UIB). He is presently visiting researcher at UIB-SVT, associate researcher at Institute for Cognitive Sciences and Technologies of the Italian National Research Council (CNR) and academic counsellor at UPF Barcelona School of Management.

His most recent papers have tackled sensitivity analysis and auditing, science’s reproducibility crisis, impact assessment, ethics of quantification, regulatory capture, rankings of higher education, science's integrity and the post-truth discussion. In summer 2023 a book entitled The Politics of Modelling, Numbers Between Science and Policy, was published by Oxford University Press, where he contributed as editor and author.

Andrea gives courses in sensitivity analysis, sensitivity auditing, science integrity, and ethics of quantification.

Academic article
  • Show author(s) (2024). An annotated timeline of sensitivity analysis. Environmental Modelling & Software.
  • Show author(s) (2023). What is Post-normal Science? A Personal Encounter. Foundations of Science.
  • Show author(s) (2023). What can mathematical modelling contribute to a sociology of quantification? Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Unpacking the modeling process for energy policy making. Risk Analysis.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Teaching scientific research integrity: A case study. Innovations in Education & Teaching International. 1-14.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Impact assessment culture in the European Union. Time for something new? Environmental Science and Policy. 99-111.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Unpacking the modelling process via sensitivity auditing. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
  • Show author(s) (2022). The Challenge of Quantification: An Interdisciplinary Reading. Minerva.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Models with higher effective dimensions tend to produce more uncertain estimates. Science Advances. 1-11.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Large variations in global irrigation withdrawals caused by uncertain irrigation efficiencies. Environmental Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Improving the reliability of cohesion policy databases. PLOS ONE.
  • Show author(s) (2022). A COMPREHENSIVE COMPARISON OF TOTAL-ORDER ESTIMATORS FOR GLOBAL SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS. International Journal for Uncertainty Quantification. 1-18.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Variance-based sensitivity analysis: The quest for better estimators and designs between explorativity and economy. Reliability Engineering & System Safety.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Variable Selection in Regression Models Using Global Sensitivity Analysis. Journal of Time Series Econometrics. 187-233.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Strange Numbers of Covid-19. Argumenta. 97-107.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Immunity Capital. Argumenta. 109-116.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support. Environmental Modelling & Software. 21 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Sensitivity analysis: A discipline coming of age. Environmental Modelling & Software.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Science, the endless frontier of regulatory capture. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Is VARS more intuitive and efficient than Sobol’ indices? Environmental Modelling & Software.
  • Show author(s) (2020). The technique is never neutral. How methodological choices condition the generation of narratives for sustainability. Environmental Science and Policy. 87-98.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Technoscience, policy and the new media. Nexus or vortex? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 8 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Quantitative Storytelling in the Making of a Composite Indicator. Social Indicators Research. 775-802.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Pandemie post-normali. Perché CoViD-19 richiede un nuovo approccio alla scienza. Recenti Progressi in Medicina. 202-204.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Ethics of quantification: illumination, obfuscation and performative legitimation. Humanities & Social Sciences Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Ethics of quantification or quantification of ethics? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 11 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Current models underestimate future irrigated areas. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) (2020). A sensitivity analysis of the PAWN sensitivity index. Environmental Modelling & Software. 1-7.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Why so many published sensitivity analyses are false: A systematic review of sensitivity analysis practices. Environmental Modelling & Software. 29-39.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Silver as a Constraint for a Large-Scale Development of Solar Photovoltaics? Scenario-Making to the Year 2050 Supported by Expert Engagement and Global Sensitivity Analysis. Frontiers in Energy Research.
  • Show author(s) (2019). A short comment on statistical versus mathematical modelling. Nature Communications.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Why science’s crisis should not become a political battling ground. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 85-90.
  • Show author(s) (2017). What is wrong with evidence based policy, and how can it be improved? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 62-71.
  • Show author(s) (2017). What is science’s crisis really about? Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 5-11.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Statistics at the time of the crisis [Statistiche al tempo della crisi]. Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 165-169.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Problematic Quantifications: a Critical Appraisal of Scenario Making for a Global ‘Sustainable’ Food Production. Food Ethics. 173-179.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Post-normal institutional identities: Quality assurance, reflexivity and ethos of care. Futures: The journal of policy, planning and futures studies. 53-61.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Do PISA data justify PISA-based education policy? International Journal of Comparative Education and Development. 20-34.
  • Show author(s) (2013). What do i make of your latinorum? Sensitivity auditing of mathematical modelling. International Journal of Foresight and Innovation Policy. 213-234.
  • Show author(s) (2023). The more things change, the more they stay the same: promises of bioeconomy and the economy of promises. Sustainability Science.
Short communication
  • Show author(s) (2023). What did COVID-19 really teach us about science, evidence and society? Journal of Evaluation In Clinical Practice. 1237-1239.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Doing the Sum Right or the Right Sums? Techno-Optimist Numbers in Food Security Scenarios. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems. 1-3.
Popular scientific article
  • Show author(s) (2019). Smettiamola di fingere: quantificare non è un’operazione neutrale (Stop pretending: quantification is never neutral). Epidemiologia & Prevenzione. 121-123.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Cargo-cult statistics and scientific crisis. Significance.
Feature article
  • Show author(s) (2020). Post-normal pandemics: Why COVID-19 requires a new approach to science. Blog of ESRC STEPS (Social, Technological and Environmental Pathways to Sustainability) Centre.
Letter to the editor
  • Show author(s) (2018). Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue. Nature. 281-281.
  • Show author(s) (2015). Policy: The future of public trust in science. Nature. 161.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
  • Show author(s) (2022). L’incontro con la scienza post-normale. 5 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Introduction to Sensitivity Analysis. 20 pages.
Encyclopedia article
  • Show author(s) (2023). Uncertainty, risk and ignorance . 507-508. In:
    • Show author(s) (2023). Elgar Encyclopedia of Ecological Economics .
  • Show author(s) (2023). Sensitivity auditing . 467-471. In:
    • Show author(s) (2023). Elgar Encyclopedia of Ecological Economics .
  • Show author(s) (2023). Sensitivity Analysis. 460-466. In:
    • Show author(s) (2023). Elgar Encyclopedia of Ecological Economics .
  • Show author(s) (2023). Ethics of quantification . 265-269. In:
    • Show author(s) (2023). Elgar Encyclopedia of Ecological Economics .
  • Show author(s) (2020). Sustainable development goals - discussion.
Article in business/trade/industry journal
  • Show author(s) (2020). Five ways to ensure that models serve society: a manifesto, . Nature. 482-484.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Views from a continent in flux. Nature asked nine leading Europeans to pick their top priority for science at this pivotal point. Love, money, and trust got most votes. Nature. 481-484.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)