- E-mailendre.tvinnereim@uib.no
- Phone+47 55 58 38 89Office hours: Tuesdays 13:15-14:30
- Visitor AddressChristies gate 175007 Bergen
- Postal AddressPostboks 78025020 Bergen
My main research interests are comparative public opinion on climate policies, quantitative text analysis in survey research and evidence-based evaluations of cap-and-trade and other CO2 pricing mechanisms. My public opinion research using quantitative text analysis and public opinion surveys has been published in journals such as Nature Climate Change, Global Environmental Change and Energy Policy. I rely primarily on survey questions and survey experiments run by my team on the Norwegian Citizen Panel, a probability-sample online infrastructure for collecting people's views on current matters. I have also used data from other opinion surveys and countries in my publications, including China and Bangladesh. Using more traditional survey questions, I find that people working in the fossil fuel industry are less likely to support climate policies that imply high costs to their industry, but are as likely as everybody else to support policies with lower costs.
My second stream of research involves the political origins, practical operations and effects of cap-and-trade systems and other forms of emission pricing. One of my key findings is that systems with emission caps often experience greater emission cuts than initially expected, which in turn leads to lower permit prices and public criticism, but which also implies that greater cuts are possible at a reasonable price. At the same time, my co-author Michael Mehling (MIT) and I find that taxes on emissions rarely lead to absolute emission reductions, which means that additional instruments are needed if deep decarbonization is the goal. We summarise our argument in the article "Carbon pricing and the 1.5°C target : near-term decarbonisation and the importance of an instrument mix," which was cited in the 1.5°C IPCC report (chapter 2).
From February 2020 to February 2022 I served as Vice Mayor for Education and Sports for the City of Bergen. From 2018 until 2020 I served as a member of the Executive Council for the Science, Technology & Environmental Policy (STEP) section of the American Political Science Association. In 2016-2020 I served on the Editorial Board of the Nature journal Scientific Data, organizing reviews and evaluating data descriptors, and with the overall aim of making the current wealth of research data in the world more available for replication and new analysis. I am furthermore coordinator of the Climate Change and Environment research group of the Norwegian Citizen Panel alongside Gisela Böhm (Psychology, University of Bergen).
In my previous position at Thomson Reuters Point Carbon, I analysed emission trading and climate policies in Europe and internationally, writing subscription-based and consultancy reports, maintaining emission data sets and communicating with customers. This work gave me ideas for research topics for later publications, networks in industry and government, and experience in communicating with non-scientific audiences. I also gained experience running large surveys, which I have built on in my current public opinion work. I believe in data sharing and routinely publicise the data and code for my publications in open depositories.
Featured publications:
Tvinnereim E and Fløttum K. (2015) "Explaining topic prevalence in open-ended survey questions on climate change." Nature Climate Change 5: 744–747.
Tvinnereim E and Ivarsflaten E. (2016) "Fossil fuels, employment, and support for climate policies. Energy Policy 96: 364-371 (17 citations).
Mehling, M. and Tvinnereim, E. (2018) "Carbon pricing and the 1.5°C target : near-term decarbonisation and the importance of an instrument mix." Carbon and Climate Law Review, 12 (1). pp. 50-61. (Article cited in the 1.5°C IPCC report, chapter 2.)
Link to my Google Scholar page and my profile on ResearchGate.
- (2023). Generational Divide in Preferences for Forest Carbon Sequestration vs Preservation of Agricultural Landscapes. Climatic Change.
- (2022). Trends in Norwegian views on oil and gas export. 16 pages.
- (2022). Synet på EU og Nato er helt klart i bevegelse – krig i Europa gjør noe med oss. Aftenposten.
- (2022). Lack of Replication or Generalization? Cultural Values Explain a Question Wording Effect. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology. 1121-1147.
- (2022). Gule vester eller gull og grønne skoger? .
- (2022). Demokratisk Energiomstilling i norge – muligheter og barrierer.
- (2022). Citizen perspectives on CCS and international CO2 transportation.
- (2021). Laypersons evaluate CO2-import for storage more negatively.
- (2021). Explaining landscape preference heterogeneity using machine learning-based survey analysis. Landscape Research. 18 pages.
- (2021). Don't send us your waste gases: Public attitudes toward international carbon dioxide transportation and storage in Europe. Energy Research & Social Science.
- (2021). Climate concerned but anti-nuclear: Exploring (dis)approval of nuclear energy in four European countries. Energy Research & Social Science.
- (2020). Who cares about Norway's energy transition? A survey experiment about citizen associations and petroleum. Energy Research & Social Science. 1-10.
- (2020). Verdi-og kunnskapsgrunnlag for fremtidens barnehage.
- (2020). Political orientation moderates the relationship between climate change beliefs and worry about climate change. Frontiers in Psychology. 1-12.
- (2020). PerCCSeptions.
- (2020). Explaining public acceptance of congestion charging: The role of geographical variation in the Bergen case. Case Studies on Transport Policy. 992-1001.
- (2020). Climate change risk perceptions and the problem of scale: Evidence from cross-national survey experiments. Environmental Politics.
- (2020). Can We Price Carbon?, by Barry G. Rabe. Carbon and Climate Law Review.
- (2019). Åpne tekstsvar for å måle klimaholdninger og klimahandlinger.
- (2019). Skoleelever over hele verden streiket for klima.
- (2019). Scientific truth or debate: On the link between perceived scientific consensus and belief in anthropogenic climate change. Public Understanding of Science.
- (2019). Public perceptions of carbon capture and storage: the perCCSeptions project.
- (2019). Predictors of worry about climate change across Europe.
- (2019). Political strategies of fossil fuel workers in times of crisis.
- (2019). Olje- og gassutvinning i Lofoten og Vesterålen. Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2019). Norwegian citizens’ associations with “oil and gas”, “energy” and “transition”.
- (2019). Norwegian citizens' associations with "oil and gas", "energy" and "transition".
- (2019). Miljøløs klimakamp.
- (2019). Kva meiner innbyggjarane om å redusere sitt eige forbruk for å redde miljøet? Nye resultat frå UiB sitt Medborgarpanel.
- (2019). Klimakvoter i spenningen mellom kostnadseffektivitet og avkarbonisering .
- (2019). Karbonpriser og kvoter .
- (2019). Informing socially sustainable afforestation strategies to mitigate climate change.
- (2019). Informing socially sustainable afforestation strategies to mitigate climate change.
- (2019). Informing socially sustainable afforestation strategies.
- (2019). Hvordan fungerer egentlig en klimakvote?
- (2019). Hvilke svar gir en spørreundersøkelse? .
- (2019). Hva mener folk om vindkraft på land og til havs? Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2019). Efficient but contentious. One Earth. 8-8.
- (2019). Day Zero event: Public perceptions of climate change.
- (2019). Combined effects of implementing afforestation as part of climate mitigation strategy in Norway.
- (2019). Bilparken – bare nullutslippsbiler fra 2025? Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2019). Bekymring for klimaendringer. Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2019). Attitudes to public spending on environmental risk reduction: the role of temporal and spatial distance. Environmental Sociology. 362-373.
- (2019). Associations évoquées par le changement climatique chez des citoyens français et norvégiens. Bergen Language and Linguistics Studies (BeLLS). 12 pages.
- (2019). Afforestation to mitigate climate doesn’t always work.
- (2019). Afforestation to mitigate climate doesn’t always work.
- (2019). Afforestation to mitigate climate doesn't always work.
- (2019). A Comparative Analysis of Public Perception on Air Pollution and Climate Change.
- (2018). Who opposes climate regulation? Business preferences for the European emission trading scheme. The Review of International Organizations. 1-32.
- (2018). Survey experiments.
- (2018). Plastic, behavior, attitudes.
- (2018). Norwegian Citizen Panel 2018: Study Documentation and data set. .
- (2018). Norges klimaforpliktelser i internasjonal kontekst.
- (2018). Holdninger til miljø og klima i Nord-Norge, på Arctic Frontiers og i Norge som helhet.
- (2018). Generalization of Classic Question Order Effects across Cultures. Sociological Methods & Research. 567-602.
- (2018). Folks oppfatninger av klimatiltak i transportsektoren: Norsk Medborgerpanels klima- og miljøgruppe.
- (2018). Flykvoter - er det realistisk og hva må til?
- (2018). Firms’ Preferences for Carbon Market Design in the EU.
- (2018). Explaining variation in energy and emission taxes: Interactions of political economy, electoral systems, and environmental policy.
- (2018). Er elbil mer eller mindre miljøvennlig enn bensin- og dieselbil? Fem klimaforskere svarer på samme spørsmål. .
- (2018). Dette mener nordmenn om elbiler.
- (2018). Carbon pricing and deep decarbonisation. Energy Policy. 185-189.
- (2018). Carbon Pricing and the 1.5°C Target: Near-Term Decarbonisation and the Importance of an Instrument Mix. Carbon and Climate Law Review. 50-61.
- (2018). CET Klimasnakk: Flykvoter - er det realistisk og hva må til? Live- innspilling av podcast 13.11.18 med stortingsrepresentant Ketil Kjenseth.
- (2017). Topic modeling of multi-language, open-ended survey responses.
- (2017). The political economy of greenhouse gas emission prices: Theory and practice.
- (2017). Storms, ice and conspiracies: Explaining what people in four European countries associate with climate change.
- (2017). Public concerns and preferences regarding energy supply systems: A comparison across four European countries.
- (2017). Public acceptance of energy sources.
- (2017). Pricing not enough for deep carbon cuts. Nature. 175-175.
- (2017). Physical changes and risks to humans: Explaining what people in four European countries associate with climate change.
- (2017). Norwegian citizens' conception of energy and energy transition.
- (2017). Narrative as a method for eliciting tacit knowledge of climate variability in Bangladesh. Weather, Climate, and Society. 669-686.
- (2017). Is support for international climate action conditional on perceptions of reciprocity? Evidence from survey experiments in Canada, the US, Norway, and Sweden. COSMOS, the Journal of the Singapore National Academy of Science.
- (2017). Introduction to cap-and-trade.
- (2017). Holdninger til klima- og energispørsmål i Norge.
- (2017). Hidden costs of implementing afforestation as a climate mitigation strategy: A comprehensive assessment of direct and indirect impacts.
- (2017). European Perceptions of Climate Change: Topline findings of a survey conducted in four European countries in 2016. .
- (2017). European Perceptions of Climate Change - Six Recommendations for Public Engagement. .
- (2017). Emotional reactions to climate change: A comparison across four European countries.
- (2017). Emotional reactions to climate change: A comparison across Norway, Great Britain, Germany, and France.
- (2017). Climate policy - an international perspective.
- (2017). Citizens' preferences for tackling climate change. Quantitative and qualitative analyses of their freely formulated solutions. Global Environmental Change. 34-41.
- (2017). Carbon prices: Models, practice, and the political economy of induced emission reductions.
- (2017). CO2 pricing: Economics, energy security, and implications for climate models.
- (2017). Aksept for lavutslippstiltak: Data, metoder og modeller.
- (2017). A contingent valuation study comparing citizen’s willingness-to-pay for climate change mitigation in China and the United States. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies. 451-475.
- (2016). Åpne surveysvar og kvantitativ tekstanalyse.
- (2016). Research ethics: methods for safeguarding respondent anonymity.
- (2016). Public perceptions of air pollution and climate change: Different manifestations; similar causes and concerns. Climatic Change. 399-412.
- (2016). Klimaendringer på Svalbard: effekter på naturmangfold og konsekvenser for den fremtidige naturforvaltningen. Delprosjekt: de samfunnsmessige aspektene av klimaendringer på Svalbard. Rokkansenteret Notat. 35 pages.
- (2016). Klimaendringer på Svalbard: effekter på naturmangfold og konsekvenser for den fremtidige naturforvaltningen. -. -. .
- (2016). Informantintervjuing: eksempler fra Norsk Medborgerpanel.
- (2016). Holdninger til miljø og klima: Medborgerpanelet, surveyeksperimenter og åpne spørsmål.
- (2016). Holdninger til klimaendringer og -løsninger: Norsk medborgerpanel og åpne spørsmål .
- (2016). Fossil Fuels, Employment, and Support for Climate Policies. Energy Policy. 364-371.
- (2016). Folkelig aksept for klima- og energitiltak i Norge. Samfunnsøkonomen. 77-86.
- (2016). Folk vil bidra til klimakutt. Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2016). European Perceptions of Climate Change. Socio-political profiles to inform a crossnational survey in France, Germany, Norway and the UK. .
- (2016). Empirical record of emissions under cap-and-trade and public understanding of climate solutions using open-ended survey questions.
- (2016). Death or taxes? Explaining what people associate with climate change in four countries. SRA.
- (2016). Death or taxes: Explaining what citizens associate with climate change in four countries.
- (2016). CO2-priser og teknologisk utvikling.
- (2016). 43,112 and counting: Prat om USA-valget ispedd litt statistikk.
- (2015). Åpne spørsmål.
- (2015). Who supports the EU ETS? Trends in the Carbon Market Survey. Carbon Market Monitor. 5-7.
- (2015). Som du roper i skogen, får du svar. Bergens Tidende.
- (2015). Kvantitativ tekstanalyse og kvalitativ metode: Eksempler på praktiske applikasjoner på klimafeltet.
- (2015). Klimakvoter: Bedre enn sitt rykte, men langt fra nok. Røyst. 73-80.
- (2015). Klimaforhandlingene på syv minutter.
- (2015). Klimaendringer og norsk opinion.
- (2015). Karbonprising, kvoter og kvotemarknad.
- (2015). Exploring citizens’ views of climate solutions in their own words.
- (2015). Explaining topic prevalence in answers to open-ended survey questions about climate change. Nature Climate Change. 744-747.
- (2015). Economic Interest and Public Support for Climate Policies.
- (2015). Climate Regulations and Carbon Pricing: Business Preferences for the European Emission Trading Scheme .
- (2014). What do we talk about when we talk about climate change? Explaining topic prevalence in open-ended survey answers.
- (2014). The bears are right: Why cap-and-trade yields greater emission reductions than expected, and what that means for climate policy. Climatic Change. 447-461.
- (2014). Stoler nordmenn på klimavitenskapen? Hva mener de unge om klimaendringene?
- (2014). Regulating greenhouse gases around the world: Emissions, emission prices, and complementary policies.
- (2014). Public support for climate and energy policies: The use of survey experiments.
- (2014). Når det snakkes om klima, bør vi se oljearbeideren i rommet. Yrke, arbeidsplass og holdninger til klimaendringer. 18 pages.
- (2014). Nye retninger i forskning på klimaendringer og opinion.
- (2014). Norsk ungdom: Klimaendringene er i stor grad menneskeskapte. Energi og Klima : Norsk klimastiftelses nettmagasin.
- (2014). Is support for international climate action conditional on perceptions of reciprocity? Evidence from three population-based survey experiments in Canada, the US, and Norway.
- (2014). Inducing Information Structures for Data-driven Text Analysis. Association for Computational Linguistics (ACL). Annual Meeting Conference Proceedings.
- (2014). Hva mener borgerne? Vi analyserer opinionen med Norsk Medborgerpanel.
- (2014). Hva er en klimakvote?
- (2014). Climate policy and markets for emissions.
- (2014). Climate change governance at multiple levels: Constraining and enabling policies from the local to the global.
- (2014). Climate change and Norwegian public opinion.
- (2014). Ambiguous messaging on climate change and fossil fuel production: Evidence from the Norwegian Citizen Panel.
- (2013). Virkemidler i klimapolitikken: Utslippsbegrensninger og støtteordninger.
- (2013). Urban Climate Change Policies in the Transportation Sector: Approaches and Outcomes.
- (2013). Public opinion about climate change: The role of individual employment in fossil-fuel intensive sectors.
- (2013). Paths Toward Large, Unilateral Climate Policies: Policy-Seeking, Attenuated Accountability and Second-Order Government Assertiveness. Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law. 379-405.
- (2013). Norsk energi i europeisk perspektiv - kva vil EU og korleis påverkar dette oss?
- (2013). Kvotehandel: Flaggskip i dødvanne. .
- (2013). Kullkraft berger strømprisen. Gjest i studio: Endre Tvinnereim.
- (2013). Frykter at EUs klimaplan havarerer.
- (2013). Den lange vegen mot CO₂-lagring.
- (2013). Cool markets, cool planet: Why cap-and-trade yields greater emission reductions than expected.
- (2013). Cool markets, cool planet: Why cap-and-trade yields greater emission reductions than expected.
- (2013). Climate policy: a global perspective.
- (2013). Carbon markets and climate policy.
- (2013). Ambiguous messaging and Norwegians’ views on climate change.
- (2012). Tar for hardt i. Klima. 25-25.
- (2012). Statoil sponser giftig industri.
- (2012). Measuring Mitigation Policy.
- (2012). Karbonhandel og debatten om ’kutt hjemme og ute’.
- (2012). EU ved grønn korsvei.
- (2012). Climate scepticism: Science literacy, world views, and economic interests.
- (2012). Climate regulations around the world: Domestic and international approaches.
- (2011). Stressing the 'A' in AGW: The Bergen program on governance and climate.
- (2011). Climate regulations and carbon trading.
- (2011). Brazil's domestic emission reductions and international climate policy stance.
More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)
2020-2025 Ocean-based Negative Emission Technologies - analyzing the feasibility, risks, and cobenefits of ocean-based negative emission technologies for stabilizing the climate. Horizon 2020. Lead: David Keller, Geomar, Kiel. (Norwegian presentation here)
2020-2024 Carbon Intensive Regions in Transition - Unravelling the Challenges of Structural Change (CINTRAN). Horizon 2020. Lead: Lukas Hermwille, Wuppertal Institute.
2019-2022 Public perceptions of carbon capture and storage (PERCCSEPTIONS)
2017-2020 Hidden costs of implementing afforestation as a climate mitigation strategy: A comprehensive assessment of direct and indirect impacts. Work package leader. An interdisciplinary project on ecosystem and societal effects of afforestation, using innovative survey experiments informed by in-house biogeochemistry results. Funder: Research Council Norway (RCN).
2017-2020 Analyzing past and future energy industry contractions: Towards a better understanding of the flip-side of energy transitions. Work package leader. My role is to analyse historical cases of decline in energy industries including societal effects. Funder: RCN.
2016-2019 Pathways to Energy Transition. Project coordinator. Survey experiments on perceptions of energy transitions using open-ended questions and quantitative text analysis. Funder: Akademia agreement UiB-Statoil.