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Erling Moxnes

Professor
  • E-mailErling.Moxnes@uib.no
  • Phone+47 55 58 41 19
  • Visitor Address
    Fosswinckelsgt. 6
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7802
    5020 Bergen

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My main interest lies in understanding why the presumably best policies are often ignored in practical decision-making. By using laboratory experiments among students and professionals I contribute to the emerging literature on misperceptions of dynamic systems (MODS). The MODS literature shows that decision makers oversimplify complex dynamic problems in the direction of static systems, with the result that chosen feedback policies are not only inaccurate but also systematically biased. I have investigated the MODS hypothesis for renewable resources, see my article on fishery management in Management Science for which I received the Jay W. Forrester Award. The results show that the predominant theory of mismanagement, the “tragedy of the commons” is not the only explanation. MODS leads to overutilization and to overinvestment even with no commons problem present, MODS exacerbates the commons problem and it makes the commons problem harder to solve. Understanding why decision makers choose biased policies is both a motivation for doing analysis and it is useful knowledge for information dissemination. MODS is only investigated in a limited number of studies thus far. It seems to have the potential to explain and improve a large number of decisions of great importance to humans, businesses and to society at large. Therefore a continuation of this work seems a most fruitful research program for the coming years. We have made experimental investigations of: overgrazing of reindeer pastures, decision tools for multi-species management, leadership in gaming situations, diffusion of environmental policies, CO2 accumulation in the atmosphere, individual transferable quotas and auctioned seasonal quotas, commodity cycles, environmental taxes, and excessive drinking among juveniles. Repeatedly, we find that delays lead to overshoots and that complexity leads to slow learning. This work now continues in the direction of improved teaching methods, starting in the field of physics where Aristotle as well as current day students struggle with even the simplest of dynamics.

In another line of research I have worked with stochastic optimization, and I have developed my own practical adaptation to “Stochastic optimization in policy space” (SOPS). In an article in The Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, SOPS is used to find optimal management strategies for a fish resource when there is measurement error. This problem has not been properly solved with previous methods. The results show that measurement error is typically more important for harvesting policies than stochastic variation, which has been studied earlier. The paper also provides estimates of the value of measurement accuracy, an estimate of importance for decisions regarding the proper amount of measurement effort. In an article in The Journal of Ecological Modelling SOPS is used to study optimal management of reindeer. In several other reports I have used SOPS to examine other issues in renewable resource management: the importance of accuracy in predictions of environmental changes, harvesting strategies in cohort models, harvesting and investment strategies in a fishery model with fleet dynamics, and harvesting strategies in a two-species model. In an article in The System Dynamics Review SOPS is used to study policy sensitivity, and in particular help researchers identify what model parts are most important for policy makers. SOPS is also a valuable tool for laboratory experiments in that the method can be used to find optimal or near-to-optimal solutions in non-linear, stochastic, dynamic systems. The method also gives deep insights into the types of dynamic problems that are central in system dynamics education.

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I am teaching the following courses:

GEO-SD 302: Fundamentals of DYnamic Social Systems

GEO-SD 306: Experimental Methods in Social Systems

GEO-SD 660 / GEO-SD 330: Natural Resources Management (MOOC)

Academic article
  • 2016. Intuitive understanding of steady-state and transient behaviors. System Dynamics Review. 128-153.
  • 2015. Natural capital in integrated assessment models of climate change. Ecological Economics. 354-361.
  • 2015. Exploration of smoking addiction health education model for teenagers based on system dynamics. Shanghai Jiaotong Daxue xuebao. Yixue ban. 161-165.
  • 2014. Economics and Management. Ekonomia i Zarządzanie. 245-257.
  • 2014. Discounting, climate and sustainability. Ecological Economics. 158-166.
  • 2013. Why advice on task selection may hamper learning in on-demand education. Computers in Human Behavior. 145-154.
  • 2013. Leading by example to protect the environment: do the costs of leading matter? Journal of Conflict Resolution. 307-326.
  • 2012. Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas: An experimental investigation. Marine Policy. 339-349.
  • 2012. GHG taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of misperceptions and biases. Environmental Economics. 44-56.
  • 2012. Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Expanding the cobweb experiment. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 321-334.
  • 2009. Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies. Climatic Change. 15-37.
  • 2009. Drunker than intended: Misperceptions and information treatments. Drug and Alcohol Dependence. 63-70.
  • 2005. Policy sensitivity analysis: simple versus complex fishery models. System Dynamics Review. 123-145.
  • 2004. Misperceptions of basic dynamics: the case of renewable resource management. System Dynamics Review. 139-162.
  • 2004. Estimating customer utility of energy efficiency standards for refrigerators. Journal of Economic Psychology. 707-724.
  • 2003. Uncertain measurements of renewable resources: Approximations, harvest policies, and value of accuracy. Journal of Environmental Economics and Management. 85-108.
  • 2003. The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment. Journal of Conflict Resolution. 773-795.
  • 2003. Do numerical simulation and optimization results improve management? Experimental evidence. Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 117-131.
  • 2001. Reindeer husbandry: Natural variation and measurement error. Ecological Modelling. 225-241.
Report
  • 2005. SOPS - A tool to find optimal policies in stochastic dynamic systems. WPSD 2/05. WPSD 2/05. .
  • 2002. Policy sensitivity analysis: Simple versus complex fishery models. .
  • 2001. Value of predicting environmental variation in fishery management. .
  • 1997. Virkemidler i miljøpolitikken: Kostnader og sektorvirkninger (Environmental Policy: Efficiency Costs and Sectoral Effects). 19. 19. .
  • 1989. TIL MINNE OM COURNOT. .
Popular scientific lecture
  • 2009. Presidential address: Diffusion of System Dynamics.
Academic lecture
  • 2012. Teaching resource management with web-based models and multi-player games.
  • 2011. Towards a unifying theory of local and global overshoots. From discounting to simulation.
  • 2011. The tragedy of overshoots. From discounting to simulation.
  • 2011. System Dynamic Analysis for Development of Renewable Energy Resources in Country.
  • 2011. Residential Energy Efficiency Policy in Latvia: A System Dynamics Approach.
  • 2011. Complex dynamics of indirect taxes analyzed by policy informatics.
  • 2011. A note on the bathtub analogy.
  • 2009. Peak oil, biofuels, and long-term food security.
  • 2009. Misperceptions of climate change dynamics.
  • 2009. Are advice adhered to? Populist versus activist or expert advice.
  • 2008. Overshooting alcohol intoxication, an experimental study of one cause and two cures.
  • 2007. The unavoidable a priori, revisited.
  • 2007. Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas, an experimental investigation.
  • 2007. Guidelines for the analysis of complex, dynamic systems.
  • 2007. Green tax, trucker actions, media coverage, misperception and political reversal.
  • 2007. GHG taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of biased decisions.
  • 2007. Cyclical behaviour in electricity markets: an experimental study.
  • 2006. Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas, an experimental investigation.
  • 2006. CO2 taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of biased decisions.
  • 2005. SOPS - A tool to find optimal policies in stochastic dynamic systems.
  • 2005. Private eller auksjonerte fiskekvoter?
  • 2004. Misperceptions of Global Climate Change: Information Policies.
  • 2004. Misperceptions of Global Climate Change: Information Policies.
  • 2003. The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment.
  • 2002. Value of predicting environmental variation in fishery management.
  • 2002. Decisions in dynamic systems: heuristics and biases.
  • 2002. Aggregate versus cohort models; a policy sensitivity analysis.
  • 2001. Verdien av målenøyaktighet.
  • 2001. Systemdynamikk for lærere.
  • 2001. Lær å unngå ineffektiv politikk med systemdynamikk.
Editorial
  • 2010. Complex alcohol pharmacokinetics: A response to Moss et al. Drug and Alcohol Dependence. 4-5.
Thesis at a second degree level
  • 2004. Spatial urban dynamics. A vision on the future of urban dynamics: Forrester revisited.
Masters thesis
  • 2017. Smart Electricity Grid with Real Time Pricing (RTP): An Alternative to Fixed Electricity Pricing In the Ghana Electricity Market.
  • 2017. Groundwater Level Declination in Bangladesh:System dynamics approach to solve irrigation waterdemand during Boro season.
  • 2017. Blackouts in Nepal&Dynamic pricing.
  • 2016. The role of technological change on abatement costs: A comparison of a top-down and a bottom-up system dynamics model.
  • 2016. Jordvern i bynære område. Landbruksareal ved Kalandsvatnet i Bergen kommune. (Region og regioanlisering).
  • 2016. Dynamic Pricing: The Future of Nepelese Electricity Market.
  • 2016. Coral reef degradation in the Philiphines. A SD approach.
  • 2015. Residential Rooftop Solar and the Utilities Death Spiral: A system dynamics analysis of the potential effects of rooftop solar diffusion on utilities’ electricity rates and 𝑪𝑶𝟐 emissions.
  • 2015. Long-Term Dynamics of Electricity Generation Expansion Optimal Investments for the Next 50 Years.
  • 2015. Importance of Financing for Nepalese Agriculture and Economic Development.
  • 2015. Energy Investment pathways for sustainable future: A System Dynamics approach to solving the Electricity shortfall in Ghana .
  • 2015. Corruption – Can Brazil win this war?
  • 2014. The Impacts of Governmental Policies on the Investment Decision for Renewable Energies in the Swiss Electricity Market.
  • 2014. MuSIASEM framework testing from a System Dynamics perspective.
  • 2014. Dynamics and Cost of Insurgency: the Maoist Insurgency in Nepal.
  • 2014. Disease eradication and the challenges of global resource mobilization.
  • 2014. Biofuel and Food Security: Insights from a System Dynamics Model. The Case of Ghana.
  • 2014. Biofuel and Food Security: Insights from a System Dynamics Model. The Case of Ghana.
  • 2012. The Dynamic Ecological footprint – Endogenizing the Ecological Footprint of Forestry in the Threshold21 Model of Senegal.
  • 2012. Parameters Estimation Using Bootstrapping for System Dynamics Models.
  • 2012. Effects of design characteristics of information presentation on performance and learning in a dynamic decision environment.
  • 2011. Predicting learning curves for algae biodiesel,estimates and uncertainty.
  • 2011. ELECTRICITY SHORTAGE AND POWER THEFT IN CAMEROON.
  • 2011. Costs and Dynamics of War: System Dynamics approached to Maritime Disputes in the South China Sea.
  • 2011. Cheating and other student strategies: A system dynamics policy analysis for students that want to graduate.
  • 2010. Profit motive and natural resource overexploitation: Misperception of the bioeconomic dynamics; the case of a fishery.
  • 2010. PRODUCTION PERFORMANCE INDICATORS IN SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT; THE CASE OF THE AUTOMOTIVE SECTOR A System Dynamics Approach for Policy Development.
  • 2010. Misperceptions of Energy Taxes: An Experimental Study.
  • 2010. How to correct misperceptions of delays: an interactive learning environment to reduce binge drinking.
  • 2010. Ghana Petroleum Fund Experiment: 'Can a Petroleum Fund help Ghana manage its pertroleum revenue (wealth)? An Experimental Ingviry'.
  • 2010. Free Competition vs. Auctioning of Licenses for Electriecity Producion. An Experimental Study.
  • 2010. Can people learn behaviours of stock and flow using their ability to calculate running total? An Experimental study.
  • 2009. Information processing in forecasts of commodity prices. An experimental study.
  • 2007. The Role of System Dynamics in Knowledge Restructuring.
  • 2007. Misperception of alcohol consuption.
  • 2007. Gasoline Tax? A System Dynamics Study of Private Passenger Vehicles in China.
  • 2007. Does System Dynamics Facilitate Learning in Resource Management?
  • 2007. A System Dynamic Based Study of Policies on Reducing Energy Use and Expense for Chinese Steel Industry.
  • 2006. What we don't measure about human resources: Towards a conceptual framework for analysing the role of soft variables in human resources management modelling.
  • 2006. Terminators of Gamekeepers? A model based analysis of antipoaching policies for Tibetan Antelope in China.
  • 2006. System Dynamics Based Study of Affordable Housing in Shanghai.
  • 2005. CO2 taxes or tradeable quotas, experimental evidence of biased decisions.
  • 2004. Urban transportation dynamics - A laboratory investigation of the choice between road and subway.
  • 2004. Transpotation Policies in a Dynamically Complex and Growing Urban Area, the Case of Shanghai.
  • 2004. SOPS - A Tool to Find Optimal Policies in Stochastic Dynamic Systems.
Software
  • 2012. SOPS - Stochastic Optimization in Policy Space.
Feature article
  • 2013. Start nedtrappingen. Dagens næringsliv. 4.
  • 2012. Investeringene må ned nå. Klassekampen. 22-22.
  • 2010. Vi må få fram vår beste viten. Bergens Tidende. 34-34.
  • 2009. Legg ned Forskningsrådet. Aftenposten (morgenutg. : trykt utg.). 4.
  • 2007. Utslippsreduksjon hjemme eller ute. Nationen.
  • 2005. Private eller auksjonerte fiskekvoter. Bergens Tidende. 23.
  • 2002. Elpriser og ansvar. Bergens Tidende.
  • 2001. Norge støtter EU. Bergens Tidende.
Doctoral dissertation
  • 2019. Feedback effects of natural capital in the integrated assessment of global warming.
  • 2018. Essays on dynamic noncooperative games based on simulations and experiments.
  • 2010. The Vulnerability Black Market: Maps, Model, Data.
Programme participation
  • 2009. Legg ned Forskningsrådet.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
  • 2018. A systems education at Bergen. 7 pages.
  • 2015. An Introduction to Deterministic and Stochastic Optimization. 34 pages.
  • 2010. Complexities in fisheries management: misperceptions and communication. 13 pages.
Poster
  • 2002. Reindeer husbandry: a practical decision-tool for adaptation of herds to rangelands.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)

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Papers in refereed journals and book sections:

Moxnes, E. (fortcoming 2014). Optimization and System Dynamics as Complements.”in Analytical methods for Dynamic Modelers, edited by Osgood, N. and Oliva, R., MIT Press.

Moxnes, E. (2014). "Discounting, climate and sustainability." Ecological Economics 102 158-166.

Davidsen, P. I., Kopainsky, B., Moxnes, E., Pedercini, M., & Wheat, I. D. (2014). Systems Education at Bergen. Systems, 2(2), 159-167.

Van der Heijden E, Moxnes E (2013) “Leading by example to protect the environment; do the costs of leading matter?” Journal of Conflict Resolution.57(2): 344-363.

Taminiau EMC, Kester L, Corbalan G, Alessi SM, Moxnes E, Gijselaers WH, Kirschner PA, and Merriënboer JJGV (2013). Why advice on task selection may hamper learning in on-demand education. Computers in Human Behavior. 29 (1). 145-154.

Moxnes, E (2012) “Expensive oil = Expensive food” in 2052, A Global Forecast for the Next Fourty Years, main author J. Randers, Chelsea Green Publishing, White River Junction, Vermont.

Moxnes, E (2012) Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas; an experimental investigation. Marine Policy 36: 339-349.

Arango, S. and Moxnes, E. (2012) “Commodity cycles, a function of market complexity? Extending the cobweb experiment.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization. 84. 321-334.

Moxnes, E. and S. Assuad (2012). "GHG taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of misperceptions and biases." Environmental Economics 3(2).

Moxnes, E., and Jensen, L.C. (2010). “Complex alcohol pharmacokinetics: A response to Moss et al.” Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 109, 4-5.

Moxnes, E. (2010). “Complexities in fisheries management: misperceptions and communication.” in Handbook of Marine Fisheries Conservation and Management, edited by Hilborn, R., Squires, D., Williams, M., Tait, M., and Grafton, Q.: Oxford University Press.

Moxnes, E. and Jensen, L. C. (2009). "Drunker than intended; misperceptions and information treatments." Drug and Alcohol Dependence 105, 63-70.

Moxnes, E., and Saysel, A.K. (2009). “Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies.” Climatic Change 93(1-2):15-37.

Arango, S., and Moxnes, E. (2008). “Experimentos de Laboratorio en Dinámica de Sistemas.” Pp. 100-124 in Dinámica de Sistemas: Casos y Aplicaciones en Latino América, edited by Dyner, I. and Rodríguez, L.: Capítulo Latinoamericano – Sociedad Dinámica de Sistemas Centro de Complejidad – CeiB

Moxnes, E. (2005). "Policy Sensitivity Analysis: simple versus complex fishery models." System Dynamics Review 21 (2) 123-145.

Moxnes, E. (2004). "Estimating customer costs or benefits of energy efficiency standards." Journal of Economic Psychology 25(6): 707-724.

Moxnes, E. (2004). "Misperceptions of basic dynamics, the case of renewable resource management." System Dynamics Review 20 (2) 139-162. Experiment T1, Instruction T1, Experiment T2, Instruction T2

Moxnes, E., Danell,Ö., Gaare, E., Kumpula, J.(2003). "A decision-tool for adaptation of reindeer herds to rangelands: the user's manual". Rangifer Report No.8 Download TOOL, Download SIMULATOR, Download Textbook, Download HINTS, Download Security hint.

Moxnes, E. and E. van der Heijden (2003). "The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment." Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(6): 773-795.

Moxnes, E. (2003). “Uncertain measurements of renewable resources: Approximations, harvest policies, and value of accuracy.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 45(1): 85-108. Download instructions. Download program

Brekke, K.A. and Moxnes, E. (2003). "Do Numerical Simulation and Optimization Results improve Management. Experimental Evidence." Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 50(1) 117-131.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (2001). "Optimal strategies for the use of reindeer rangelands" Ecological Modelling 145 (2-3): 225-241.

Moxnes, E. (2000). “Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development.” System Dynamics Review 16(4).

Moxnes, E. (1998). “Not only the tragedy of the commons, misperceptions of bioeconomics.” Management Science 44(9):1234-1248.

Moxnes, E. (1998). “Overexploitation of renewable resources: The role of misperceptions.” Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization 37(1):107-127.

Moxnes, Erling (1998). “"Stockfish", a Multispecies Model for Stochastic Analysis.” in Models for Multispecies Management, edited by Tor Rødseth. Heidelberg: Physica-Verlag.

Moxnes, E. (1992). “Positive Feedback Economics and the Competition between "hard" and "soft" Energy Supplies.” Journal of Scientific and Industrial Research 51(March):257-265.

Moxnes, E. (1990). "Oljeprisfall betyr arbeidsledighet; politikken avgjør hvor stor den blir." (Oil price falls imply unemployment; policies determine how large it gets) Norsk Økonomisk Tidskrift 104:29-67

Moxnes, E. (1990): "Interfuel substitution in OECD-European electricity production", System Dynamics Review. 6 (1): 44-65.

Flåm, S.D., and Moxnes, E. (1989). "Til minne om Cournot." (In memory of Cournot) Norsk Økonomisk Tidskrift, 103:115-124.

Moxnes, E (1987). "The dynamics of Interfuel Substitution in the OECD-Europe Industrial Sector", in Natural Gas Markets and Contracts by R. Golombek, M. Hoel, and J. Vislie (editors), North-Holland.

Flåm, S.D. and E. Moxnes (1987). "Exploration for Petroleum and the Inventory of Proven Reserves", Energy Economics, 9 (3): 190-194.

 

Papers and comments in Sosialøkonomen (a popular Norwegian economics journal):

 

Moxnes, E. (1997). “Phillipskrøller og konjunktursykler.” (Phillips curls and business cycles) Sosialøkonomen 51(3):12-13.

Moxnes, E. (1994). “Finans- og lønnspolitikk i en petroleumsøkonomi med flukturerende oljepriser.” (Finance- and wage policy in a petroleum economy with fluctuating oil prices). Sosialøkonomen 48(3):13-15.

Hatlebakk, M. and E. Moxnes (1993). “Informasjonstiltak som supplement til CO2-avgift.” (Information as a supplement to CO2 taxes). Sosialøkonomen 47(3):2-5.

Amundsen, E.S., G.B. Asheim, E. Moxnes, and B. Sandvik (1991): "Hva er bærekraftig utvikling?" (What is sustainable development?) Sosialøkonomen, 45 (3): 20-26.

Moxnes, E.(1989). "Kommende problem for leverandører til petroleumsvirksomheten" (Expected problems for suppliers to the petroleum sector) Sosialøkonomen, 43 (7), 8-11.

Moxnes, E.(1988). "Lange bølger i verdensøkonomien?"(Long waves in the world economy?) Sosialøkonomen, 42 (6): 16-23.

Moxnes, E. (1986): "Oljeprisprognose fram mot 1990" (Oil price forecast towards 1990), Sosialøkonomen 40(8): 17-24.

Ervik, L.K og E. Moxnes (1979): Optimal leverings-sikkerheit av el.kraft, Sosialøkonomen, 33 (4): 16-21.

  

Simulators and program packages.  

  

Program package SOPS for user-friendly stochastic, dynamic optimisation.

Moxnes, E. (2004). "Misperceptions of basic dynamics, the case of renewable resource management." System Dynamics Review 20 (2) 139-162. See downloads in publications list above.

Moxnes, E., Danell,Ö., Gaare, E., Kumpula, J.(2003). "A decision-tool for adaptation of reindeer herds to rangelands: the user's manual". Rangifer Report No.8 Download TOOL, Download SIMULATOR, Download Textbook, Download HINTS, Download Security hint.

Moxnes, E. (1995). “Simulator for forvaltning av reinbeiter.” (Simulator for the management of reindeer pastures) SNF-rapport 83/95. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1993). “"Fiskebåtreder" - En simulator for ressursforvaltning.” (“Fishing vessel owner” - A simulator for resource management) SNF-Report 81/93. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1992). “En simuleringsmodell for analyse av verdens oljemarked”. (A simulator for analysing the world oil market, for Statoil), CMI.

 

Papers at conferences (since 1992):

 

Moxnes, E. (2009). “Are advice adhered to? Populist versus activist or expert advice.” in International System Dynamics Conference. Albuequerque (Plenary session).

Sandvik, S., and Moxnes, E. (2009). “Peak oil, biofuels, and long-term food security.” in International System Dynamics Conference. Albuquerque USA.

Jensen, L. and Moxnes, E. (2008): “Overshooting alcohol intoxication, an experimental study of one cause and two cures.” The International System Dynamics Conference, Athens, Greece: The System Dynamics Society.

Assuad, S. and Moxnes, E. (2007): “GHG taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of biased decisions.” Economic Science Association, World Meeting, 28.06-30.06, Rome.

Moxnes, E. (2007): “Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas, an experimental investigation.” Economic Science Association, World Meeting, 28.06-30.06, Rome.

Moxnes, E. (2007): “Green tax, trucker actions, media coverage, misperception and political reversal.” The International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, USA: The System Dynamics Society.

Moxnes, E. (2007): “Guidelines for the analysis of complex, dynamic systems.” The International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, USA: The System Dynamics Society.

Arango, S. and Moxnes, E. (2007): “Cyclical behaviour in electricity markets: an experimental study.” The International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, USA: The System Dynamics Society.

Moxnes, E. (2007): “The unavoidable a priori, revisited.” Invited Meeting of the European System Dynamics Society, March, St. Gallen, Switzerland.

Moxnes, E. (2006): “Individual transferable quotas versus auctioned seasonal quotas, an experimental investigation.” The International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegen, The Netherlands: The System Dynamics Society.

Assuad, C.S. and Moxnes, E. (2006): "CO2 taxes and tradable quotas, experimental evidence of biased decisions." The International System Dynamics Conference, Nijmegen, The Netherlands: The System Dynamics Society.

Moxnes, E. and A.Kråkenes (2005). SOPS - A tool to find optimal policies in stochastic dynamic systems. International System Dynamics Conference, Boston, July 17-21.

Moxnes, E. and A.K. Saysel (2004). Misperceptions of Global Climate Change: Information Policies. International System Dynamics Conference, Oxford, Aug. 26-28.

Moxnes, E. and A.K. Saysel (2004). Misperceptions of Global Climate Change: Information Policies. ISEE 2004 Montréal, 8th Biennial Scientific Conference, International Society for Ecological Economics, July 11-14

Moxnes, E. and E. van der Heijden (2003): "The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment", invited paper at the workshop: "Leadership and social interactions in economics", Lyon, France, March 28-29.

Moxnes, E. (2002). "Aggregate versus cohort models; a policy sensitivity analysis." in The International System Dynamics Conference. Palermo, Italy: The System Dyanics Society.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (2002). "Reindeer husbandry: a practical decision-tool for adaptation of herds to rangelands." in The International System Dynamics Conference. Palermo, Italy: The System Dyanics Society.

Moxnes, E. (2002). "Value of predicting environmental variation in fishery management." in The International System Dynamics Conference. Palermo, Italy: The System Dyanics Society.

Moxnes, E.(2001): "Verdien av målenøyaktighet." NFR seminar on fish stock assessments, Trondheim, October 17.

Moxnes, E. and E. van der Heijden (2000): “The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment.” The International Arne Ryde Symposium in Experimental Economics in Lund, Sweden, November.

Moxnes, E. and E. van der Heijden (2000): “The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment.” The European Meeting of the ESA (Economic Science Association ) in Amsterdam, October 18-21.

Moxnes, E. (2000). “Not only the tragedy of the commons: misperceptions of feedback and policies for sustainable development.” (Jay Forrester Award paper). 2000 International System Dynamiccs Conference  in Bergen, Norway.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (2000). “Reindeer husbandry: A practical decision tool for adaptation of herds to rangelands.” 2000 International System Dynamics Conference  in Bergen, Norway.

Brekke, K.A. and Moxnes, E. (2000). “Do Numerical Simulation and Optimization Results improve Management. Experimental Evidence.” 2000 International System Dyna­mics Conference  in Bergen, Norway.

Moxnes, E. (1998): “Misperceptions of Renewable Resources”. Invited speaker at an International Workshop “Education for the 21st Century in Environmental Sciences: A Global Perspective”, University of Bergen, Sept.

Moxnes, E. (1997). “The value of stock measurments in a stochastic predator-prey system”. FMU-Fisheries Management under Uncertainty, International Symposium in Bergen, June.

Moxnes, E. (1996). "Optimal quota policies for a stochastic predator-prey system." Paper presented at international workshop on assessment and distribution of harvest quotas in fisheries, Geiranger.

Moxnes, E. (1996). "Crisis management of a renewable resource" 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Boston.

Moxnes, E. (1996). "Stochastic optimization in policy space using simulation models." 1996 International System Dynamics Conference, Boston.

Moxnes, E. (1995). "Crisis management of a renewable resource: The case of reindeer management." 1995 International Conference of the International Association for Research in Economic Psychology (IAREP), Bergen, Norway.

Moxnes, E. (1994). "Search Costs and Energy Efficiency." International Conference of the IAEE, Stavanger, Norway.

Moxnes, E. (1994). "Management of Renewable Resources", 1994 International System Dynamics Conference  in Stirling, Scotland.

Moxnes, E. (1994). "Management of Renewable Resources." Paper at the Barents Euroarctic Region Environmental Conference, Apatity, Russia.

Moxnes, E. (1992). "Cartel Behaviour in Commodity Markets."  1992 International System Dynamics Conference in Utrecht.

Moxnes, E. (1992). "Continuous Models and Discrete Time Series Data."  1992 International System Dynamics Conference  in Utrecht.

 

Reports and working papers (since 1992):

 

Kraakenes, A. and Moxnes. E. (2005). SOPS - A Tool to Find Optimal Policies in Stochastic Dynamic Systems. WPSD 2/05. System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen.

Moxnes, E. and Saysel, A.K. (2004). Misperceptions of global climate change: information policies. WPSD 1/04. System Dynamics Group, University of Bergen.

Moxnes, E. (2003). “Estimating customer utility of energy efficiency standards for refrigerators.” WPSD 4/03, http://www.ifi.uib.no/sd/wp.html: Information Science, University of Bergen.

Moxnes, E. (2003). “Policy sensitivity analysis: simple versus complex fishery models.” WPSD 3/03, http://www.ifi.uib.no/sd/wp.html: Information Science, University of Bergen.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (2003). “A decision-tool for adaptation of reindeer herds to rangelands: the user’s manual.” 19/03. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (2002). “Policy sensitivity analysis: Simple versus complex fishery models.” WP 88/02. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (2002). “Reindeer husbandry: A practical decision-tool for adaptation of herds to rangelands.” Report No. 49/02. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (2001). “Value of Predicting Environmental Variation in Fishery Management.” Report No. 13/00. Bergen: SNF

Heijden, E.v.d., and Moxnes, E. (2000). “Leadership and following in a public bad experiment.”. Report No. 13/00. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (2000). “Diffusion of environmental policies; Bayesian learning or heuristics. Report No. 14/00. Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E., and Heijden, E.v.d. (2000). “The effect of leadership in a public bad experiment.”. Report No. 15/00. Bergen: SNF.

Brekke, K.A. and Moxnes, E. (2000). “Do Numerical Simulation and Optimization Results improve Management. Experimental Evidence.” 27/00. Bergen: SNF.

Heijden, E.v.d., and Moxnes, E. (1999). “Information feedback in public-bad games: A cross-country experiment.” WP No.42/1999 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1999). “Near-to-optimal harvesting strategies for a stochastic multicohort fishery.” Report No. 57/99 . Bergen: SNF. Download report.

Moxnes, E. (1999). “Optimale kvoter og investeringer i kapasitet.” in Kapasitet og fornyelse av fiskeflåten: Senter for fiskeriøkonomi, SNF/NHH.

Holmås, T. H., and E. Moxnes (1998). “Sikre minimumsstandarder. Ei operasjonali­ering av føre-var prinsippet.” SNF-rapport 17/98 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1998). “Catch policy for a predator-prey system: measurement error and value of accuracy.” SNF Report 56/98 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1998). “Uncertain measurements of renewable resources: Harvest policy and value of accuracy.” SNF Report 51/98 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E., Danell, Ö., Gaare, E., and Kumpula, J. (1998). “Reindeer husbandry: Natural variation and measurement error.” 59/98 . Bergen: SNF.

Brekke, K.A. and Moxnes, E. (1998). “Do Models Improve Fishery Management. Empirical Evidence from an Experimental Study.” Discussion Paper No. 228. Oslo: Statistics Norway.

Moxnes, E. (1997). “Stockfish II: Testing aggregate models for cod and capelin in the Barents Sea.” SNF Report 88/97 . Bergen: SNF.

Hatlebakk, M., E. Moxnes, and B. Singh (1997): Efficiency Standards for Refrigerators in India: An Analysis of Consumer Preferences. SNF-report 13/97.

Moxnes, E. (1996). "Mismanagement of renewable resources." Working paper No. 1/1996, SNF, Bergen.

Hatlebakk, M., and E. Moxnes (1996). “Estimating the economic gain of energy standards on refrigerators.” SNF-report 79/96 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1996). “Testing Methods for 'Stochastic Optimization in Policy Space'.” Working Paper No.38/1996 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E., A. Greve, E. van der Heijden, and B. Singh (1996). “Spredning av miljø- og energipolitikk over landegrenser.” . SNF-rapport 73/96, Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1996). “Optimal quota policies for a stochastic predator-prey system.” SNF-report no. 76/96 . Bergen: SNF.

Moxnes, E. (1995). "Multispecies Management: Optimal Quotas." Report, SNF, Bergen.

Moxnes, E. (1995). "Testing Methods for Stochastic Optimization in Multispecies Models." Working Paper, SNF, Bergen.  

Moxnes, E., Kristiansen, F. and Walderhaug, K. (1995). "Etterspørsel etter varer og tjenester fra transportsektoren." Arbeidsnotat 12/95, SNF, Bergen.

Moxnes, E. and Wulff, E. (1995). "Satsing på transport som industrielt næringsområde, STRAIN forprosjekt." SNF-Report 10/95, SNF, Bergen. 

Moxnes, E. (1995). "Crisis management of a renewable resource." Working Paper 57/95, SNF, Bergen.

 Moxnes, E. (1994). ""Stockfish", a Multispecies Model for Stochastic Analysis." SNF-Report 82/94, SNF, Bergen.

Moxnes, E. and Nyhus, H. (1994). "Monte Carlo simulering. Metode og program." SNF-Rapport 39/94, SNF, Bergen.

Moxnes, E. and Nyhus, H. (1994). "Multispecies management under uncertainty: Optimization and/or simulation." SNF-Report 97/94, SNF, Bergen.

Moxnes, E. (1994). "Forbrenning av spesialavfall: En samfunnsøkonomisk analyse av to alternativ." SNF-Report 64/94, SNF, Bergen.

 Moxnes, E. (1993). "Mismanagement of fish resources." SNF-Report 41/93.

Moxnes, E., Sara, A.N., Solbakken, J.I. and Stenseth, N.C. (1993). "Reindrift og beitegrunnlag. En modellanalyse." SNF-report 35/93, SNF, Centre for Research in Economics and Business Administration, Bergen. 

Hatlebakk, M. and Moxnes, E. (1992). "CO2-avgift mest effektivt?" WP 92/03, Chr. Michel­sens Institutt.

Hatlebakk, M. and Moxnes, E. (1992). "Energy Policy and Bounded Rationality." WP 92/01, Chr. Michelsen Institute,

Moxnes, E. (1992). "Cartel Behaviour in Commodity Markets." WP, Chr. Michelsen Institute

Moxnes, E. (1992). "Continuous Models and Discrete Time Series Data." WP, Chr. Michelsen Institute

Moxnes, E. (1992). "Multispecies Management under Uncertainty", SNF-report 95/92.

 

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