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Marius Årthun's picture

Marius Årthun

Researcher
Geophysical Institute Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research
Google Scholar
  • E-mailmarius.arthun@uib.no
  • Phone+47 55 58 47 88
  • Visitor Address
    Allégaten 70
    5007 Bergen
    Room 
    SKD
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7803
    5020 Bergen

My current research is concerned with the basin-scale ocean circulation and air-sea interaction in the Arctic-Atlantic region, and whether associated climate variations are predictable on interannual-to-decadal time scales. Previous work has been on regional oceanography and air-sea interaction in both the Arctic and Antarctic, combining observations and fieldwork with numerical models (climate models, regional ice-ocean models and idealized models).

Popular outreach in Norwegian:

Popular science article: Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på fremtiden? High North News 26.01.2021.

Podcast from the Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research: Arven etter Nansen

Presenter in the concert Next Step - Ocean. Part of a collaborative concert series between the University of Bergen and the Philharmonic Orchestra. Audience number: 1300. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y19aJEIcO14&t=7s

Popular science article: Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. https://www.nordisktrykk.no/FLIP/2402-UMB-flip/mobile/index.html

Popular science article: Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/K38EvE/sjoeisen-i-arktis-kan-vokse-selv-om-verden-blir-varmere

Popular science article: Isen i Barentshavet er i ferd med å forsvinne: https://www.aftenposten.no/viten/i/B8vKE/Isen-i-Barentshavet-er-i-ferd-m...

Popular science article: Tror på mer is i Barentshavet denne vinteren: https://forskning.no/meninger/kronikk/2015/01/svalbard-kommer-ut-av-isen

Popular science article: Havis på rømmen. Klima, CICERO, 2014.

Popular science article: Nansen fikk rett. ”Forskning viser at...” Dagens Næringsliv, 25.08.2012.

Polar Oceanography (GEOF338), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway. Teaching assistant (2014-2017).

Field course in Oceanography (GEOF332), Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Norway.   Teaching assistant (2014).

Winter School on Sea Ice Variability in the Arctic, Tromsø, Norway. Invited lecturer (2014).   

International polar field school, Svalbard, Norway. Invited lecturer (2009).

 

 

Academic article
  • Show author(s) (2023). Rapid sea ice changes in the future Barents Sea. The Cryosphere.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Communications Earth & Environment.
  • Show author(s) (2023). Future strengthening of the Nordic Seas overturning circulation. Nature Communications. 2065.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. Journal of Climate. 2961-2973.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. Climate Dynamics. 20 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science Advances.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate. 7057-7071.
  • Show author(s) (2021). The Seasonal and Regional Transition to an Ice-Free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communications Earth & Environment. 10 pages.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and Their Predictive Potential along the Atlantic Water Pathway. Journal of Climate. 2111-2131.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming arctic. Journal of Climate. 8635-8653.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate. 3421-3439.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change. 661-666.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Mechanisms underlying recent Arctic atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters. 1-9.
  • Show author(s) (2019). The Role of Atlantic Heat Transport in Future Arctic Winter Sea Ice Loss . Journal of Climate. 3327-3341.
  • Show author(s) (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Mechanisms of Ocean Heat Anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Oceans. 2908-2923.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics. 1-20.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability. Geophysical Research Letters. 3597-3604.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate. 8197-8210.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. . PLOS ONE. 1-13.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Toward an ice-free Barents Sea. Geophysical Research Letters. 8387-8395.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications. 1-11.
  • Show author(s) (2016). On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. Journal of Climate. 689-704.
  • Show author(s) (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the southern Weddell Sea. PLOS ONE.
  • Show author(s) (2015). Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters. 5364-5371.
  • Show author(s) (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of Physical Oceanography. 1230-1243.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined from empirical relationships and modeled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems. 40-50.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Resolving frontal structures: On the pay-off using a less diffusive but computational more expensive advection scheme. Ocean Dynamics. 1457-1470.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. Journal of Climate. 4736-4743.
  • Show author(s) (2011). Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers. 801-817.
  • Show author(s) (2010). Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems. 88-98.
Lecture
  • Show author(s) (2021). Atlantification of the Barents Sea, Presentation at 'The Changing Arctic - 100 years of diplomatic relations Estonia-Norway'.
Popular scientific lecture
  • Show author(s) (2020). Forecasting the Ocean - from temperature to fish.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Havet konsert med Bergen Filharmonisk Orkestra.
Academic lecture
  • Show author(s) (2022). Skillful Prediction of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Present and future influence of ocean heat transport on winter Arctic sea-ice variability.
  • Show author(s) (2022). On the structure and sensitivity of North Atlantic thermohaline circulation.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Future increase in Nordic Seas overturning as a response to enhanced horizontal circulation.
  • Show author(s) (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification by enhanced poleward ocean heat transport.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Atmospheric and oceanic drivers of regional Arctic winter sea-ice variability in present and future climates.
  • Show author(s) (2020). The dominant spatial patterns of Barents Sea ice variance.
  • Show author(s) (2020). How Atlantic heat makes Arctic sea ice retreat.
  • Show author(s) (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss.
  • Show author(s) (2019). The Barents Sea cooler in a warming ocean.
  • Show author(s) (2019). How Atlantic heat makes Arctic sea ice retreat.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.
  • Show author(s) (2018). A simple physical model of the Atlantic inflow in the Nansen Basin.
  • Show author(s) (2017). Multi-year prediction of the Barents Sea cod stock.
  • Show author(s) (2016). The Atlantic Water pathway in the Norwegian Earth System Model.
  • Show author(s) (2014). Circulation in the Filchner Depression and the seasonality of the Filchner outflow, Antarctica.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat.
  • Show author(s) (2011). Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat.
  • Show author(s) (2011). Decadal variability of hydrodynamics and productivity in the Barents Sea.
  • Show author(s) (2010). Ocean acidification response to surface ocean conditioning and transport - processes influencing anthropogenic carbon change in the Arctic and Southern oceans.
  • Show author(s) (2010). Cold Deep Water formation on shallow banks in the Barents Sea.
  • Show author(s) (2010). A carbon system model for the Barents sea.
  • Show author(s) (2010). A CO2 upotake model for the Barents Sea.
  • Show author(s) (2010). "Nordic heat" -processes constraining the Nordic Seas" role in climate.
  • Show author(s) (2009). Ice-Ocean climate variability in the Baretns Sea:model study.
Popular scientific article
  • Show author(s) (2019). Sjøisen i Arktis kan vokse selv om verden blir varmere. Aftenposten Viten.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Klimavarsling - en arv etter Nansen. Bjerknessenteret News.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Klimaendringer bremser Golfstrømmen – men i nord øker farten. NRK Nordland.
  • Show author(s) (2019). Hvor går grensen for iskanten . Dagens næringsliv.
Feature article
  • Show author(s) (2021). Rekordlite is og økt skipstrafikk i Arktis: Hvordan forbereder vi oss på framtiden? . High North News.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Kaldere hav i et varmere klima. Hva er det som foregår? Aftenposten Viten.
Doctoral dissertation
  • Show author(s) (2011). Water mass transformations and air-sea exchange in the Barents Sea.
Interview
  • Show author(s) (2021). Vil varsle om klima flere år frem i tid.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Nansen fikk rett.
  • Show author(s) (2012). Avdekker smelting i Barentshavet.
Poster
  • Show author(s) (2022). Patterns of decadal variability in observed Arctic sea-ice concentration.
  • Show author(s) (2021). Predictability of Barents Sea Phytoplankton Concentration.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Identifying the Time Scale, Pattern, and Mechanisms Underlying North Atlantic Decadal Variability .
  • Show author(s) (2018). Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Sensitivity of submarine melting on North East Greenland towards ocean forcing.
  • Show author(s) (2018). Seasonal Prediction of Temperatures in Europe from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures.
Errata
  • Show author(s) (2021). Erratum: The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss (J. Climate (2019) 32 (3327–3341) DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0750.1). Journal of Climate. 3271.
Academic literature review
  • Show author(s) (2022). Nordic Seas Heat Loss, Atlantic Inflow, and Arctic Sea Ice cover over the last century. Reviews of Geophysics.
Website (informational material)
  • Show author(s) (2020). The elusive sea ice edge.
  • Show author(s) (2020). Iskanten og iskantsonen - Hvor går grensen?
Article in business/trade/industry journal
  • Show author(s) (2019). Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey. EOS.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)

  1. Shu, Q., Wang, Q., Årthun, M., Wang, S., Song, Z., Zhang, M., & Qiao, F. (2022). Arctic Ocean Amplification in a warming climate in CMIP6 models. Science advances, 8(30), eabn9755
  2. Passos, L., Langehaug, H.R., Årthun, M. et al. Impact of initialization methods on the predictive skill in NorCPM: an Arctic–Atlantic case study. Clim Dyn (2022).
  3. Langehaug, H. R., Ortega, P., Counillon, F., Matei, D., Maroon, E., Keenlyside, N., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway. Journal of Climate, 35(7), 2111-2131
  4. Efstathiou, E., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., & Lind, S. (2022). Spatial Patterns, Mechanisms, and Predictability of Barents Sea Ice Change. Journal of Climate, 35(10), 2961-2973.
  5. Smedsrud, L. H., Muilwijk, M., Brakstad, A., Madonna, E., Lauvset, S. K., Spensberger, C., ... & Årthun, M. (2022). Nordic Seas heat loss, Atlantic inflow, and Arctic sea ice cover over the last century. Reviews of Geophysics, 60(1), e2020RG000725
  6. Dörr, J., M. Årthun, T. Eldevik, E. Madonna (2021). Mechanisms of regional winter sea-ice variability in a warming Arctic. Journal of Climate, 34(21), 8635-8653.
  7. Koul, V., C. Sguotti, M. Årthun et al. (2021). Skilful prediction of cod stocks in the North and Barents Sea a decade in advance. Communication Earth & Environment, 2, 140.
  8. Asbjørnsen, H., H.L. Johnson, M. Årthun (2021). Variable Nordic Seas Inflow Linked to Shifts in North Atlantic Circulation. Journal of Climate, 34(17), 7057-7071.
  9. Årthun, M., Wills, R. C., Johnson, H. L., Chafik, L., & Langehaug, H. R. (2021). Mechanisms of decadal North Atlantic climate variability and implications for the recent cold anomaly. Journal of Climate, 34(9), 3421-3439.
  10. Årthun, M., Onarheim, I. H., Dörr, J., & Eldevik, T.. (2021). The seasonal and regional transition to an ice‐free Arctic. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GC009054. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL090825
  11. Skagseth, Ø., Eldevik, T., Årthun, M., Asbjørnsen, H., Lien, V. S., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2020). Reduced efficiency of the Barents Sea cooling machine. Nature Climate Change, 1-6.
  12. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2020). Mechanisms Underlying Recent Arctic Atlantification. Geophysical Research Letters, 47(15), e2020GL088036.
  13. Paasche, Øyvind, et al. "Addressing Arctic Challenges Requires a Synoptic Ocean Survey." Eos: Earth & Space Science News 100 (2019).
  14. Årthun, M., Eldevik, T., & Smedsrud, L. H. (2019). The role of Atlantic heat transport in future Arctic winter sea ice loss. Journal of Climate, 32(11), 3327-3341
  15. Asbjørnsen, H., Årthun, M., Skagseth, Ø., & Eldevik, T. (2019). Mechanisms of ocean heat anomalies in the Norwegian Sea. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 124(4), 2908-2923
  16. Langehaug, H. R., Sandø, A. B., Årthun, M., & Ilıcak, M. (2019). Variability along the Atlantic water pathway in the forced Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics, 1-20.
  17. Heuzé, C. & Årthun, M. (2019). The Atlantic inflow across the Greenland-Scotland ridge in global climate models (CMIP5). Elementa: Science of the Anthropocene, 7.
  18. Årthun, M., Bogstad, B., Daewel, U., Keenlyside, N. S., Sandø, A. B., Schrum, C., & Ottersen, G. (2018). Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PloS one, 13(10), e0206319.
  19. Kolstad, E. W., & Årthun, M. (2018). Seasonal Prediction from Arctic Sea Surface Temperatures: Opportunities and Pitfalls. Journal of Climate, 31(20), 8197-8210.
  20. Årthun, M., E. W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N. S. Keenlyside, 2018. Time scales and sources of European temperature variability. Geophysical Research Letters. doi: 10.1002/2018gl077401
  21. Onarheim, I. H., and M. Årthun (2017), Toward an ice-free Barents Sea, Geophys. Res. Lett., 44, 8387–8395.
  22. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnsson, N. S. Keenlyside, 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications 8. 
  23. Årthun, M and T. Eldevik, 2016. On anomalous ocean heat transport toward the Arctic and associated climate predictability. Journal of Climate, 29, 689-704.
  24. Boehme, L., Baker, A., Fedak, M., Årthun, M., Nicholls, K., Robinson, P., ... & Photopoulou, T. (2016). Bimodal winter haul-out patterns of adult Weddell seals (Leptonychotes weddellii) in the Southern Weddell Sea. PloS one, 11(5), e0155817
  25. Onarheim, I. H., T. Eldevik, M. Årthun, R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, 2015. Skillful prediction of Barents Sea ice cover. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (13), 5364-5371.
  26. Darelius, E., Strand, K. O., Østerhus, S., Gammeslrød, T., Årthun, M., & Fer, I. (2014). On the seasonal signal of the Filchner overflow, Weddell Sea, Antarctica. Journal of physical oceanography, 44(4), 1230-1243.
  27. Årthun, M., P. R. Holland, K. W. Nicholls, D. L. Feltham 2013. Eddy-driven exchange between the open ocean and a sub-ice shelf cavity. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 2372-2387.
  28. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, L. Boehme 2013. Wintertime water mass modification near an Antarctic Ice Front. Journal of Physical Oceanography, 43, 359-365.   
  29. Barthel, K., Daewel, U., Pushpadas, D., Schrum, C., Årthun, M., H. Wehde 2012. Resolving frontal structures: on the payoff using a less diffusive but computationally more expensive advection scheme. Ocean Dynamics, 62, 1457-1470.
  30. Årthun, M., K. W. Nicholls, K. Makinson, M. A. Fedak, L. Boehme 2012. Seasonal inflow of warm water onto the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf, Antarctica. Geophysical Research Letters, 39, L17601.
  31. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, L. H. Smedsrud, Ø. Skagseth, R. B. Ingvaldsen, 2012. Quantifying the influence of Atlantic heat on Barents Sea ice variability and retreat. Journal of Climate, 25, 4736-4743.    
  32. Årthun, M., R. G. J. Bellerby, A. Omar, C. Schrum., 2012. Spatiotemporal variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes in the Barents Sea, as determined by empirical relationships and modelled hydrography. Journal of Marine Systems, 98-99, 40-50. 
  33. Årthun, M., R. B. Ingvaldsen, L. H. Smedsrud, C. Schrum., 2011. Dense water formation and circulation in the Barents Sea. Deep Sea Research I, 58(8), 801-817.    
  34. Årthun, M. and C. Schrum., 2010. Ocean surface heat flux variability in the Barents Sea. Journal of Marine Systems 83, 88-98.

Ongoing projects:

Overturning circulation in the new Arctic (ArMOC), Project leader, starting in 2023

Arven etter Nansen, WP-leader (https://arvenetternansen.com/).

Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit, WP-leader (https://bjerknes.uib.no/en/project/bjerknes-climate-prediction-unit).

Dynamics of the North Atlantic surface and overturning circulation (DYNASOR), WP-leader

 

Previous projects:

Pathways, processes, and impacts of poleward ocean heat transport (PATHWAY), Project leader

Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (http://www.blue-action.eu/)

Predictability of Arctic/North Atlantic climate (PRACTICE)

Seasonal Forcasting Engine