Earthquake Potential in Western Anatolia and the Associated Hazard Assessment Izmir, Turkey

Project coordinator: Prof. Kuvvet Atakan

Project partners: Dept.of Earth Science, UiB, Norway; GFZ, Potsdam, Germany; INGV, Rome, Italy; University of Barcelona, Spain; University of Nice, France; University of Ulster, Northern Ireland; METU, Ankara, Turkey and DEU, Izmir, Turkey

Funding: Meltzerfondet, University of Bergen, Norway

Principal investigator: Prof. Kuvvet Atakan

People involved at UiB: Prof. Ritske Huismans (crustal modeling), Assoc.Prof. Harald Walderhaug (paleomagnetism) and Louise W.Bjerrum (ground motion modeling), Dept.Earth Sci. Univ.Bergen, Norway

Project period: 2007-04-01 to 2009-04-01

The Anatolian microplate moves westward due to the plate tectonic convergence between the African and Eurasian plates. This results in N-S oriented extension and reactivation of faults in both geological and historical times with catastrophic consequences in Izmir. The main objective of the proposed study is therefore assessing seismic hazard in western Anatolia with a focus in the city of Izmir. Realistic estimate of seismic hazard is highly dependent upon the understanding of the fault behavior and hence the project aims to focus on investigating the earthquake potential of the selected active faults and preparing hazard maps as outlined below.

-Study the regional geology and tectonics to identify significant faults.

-Investigate the reactivation potential of faults by studying the earthquake focal mechanisms and their inversion for regional crustal stress.

-Develop a model for fault interaction using stress transfer analysis.

-Understand the block rotations by studying the GPS velocity vectors and paleomagnetic signatures.

-Develop a kinematic model and segmentation for a selected fault to understand fault behavior. Determine trench sites along selected fault segments for future studies.

-Integrate these results to build earthquake rupture scenarios.

-Compute ground motions using hybrid kinematic methods and produce seismic hazard maps for Izmir.