Numbers for policy: Practical problems in quantification
Advanced course directed towards PhD-candidates and postdoctoral fellows in quantitative sciences and in particular fields of research that produce evidence for public policy and decision making. Students from both the natural sciences, social sciences and health sciences are welcome. The five day course will take place 13. - 17. March 2017 at the University of Bergen campus.
Main content
About the course
The course introduces concepts of responsible quantification as an antidote to inconsiderate uses of numbers both within and outside of academia. It shows the pitfalls to be avoided and offers - with examples - tools and recipes for reasonable uses of quantitative methods.
The course takes inspiration from the works of Jerome R. Ravetz, historian and philosopher of science, author of important works on the relation between science and society and science and power, together with Silvio Funtowicz the father of post-normal science.
Ravetz reminds us time and time again that one of the main problems with a scientific education is that we are taught that each problem has one and only one solution, and that nothing can go wrong when reality is framed to a model, all this thanks to proper mathematics.
The damage done to students one day and working scientists the next is dramatically evident in the production of bogus or implausible or irrelevant quantifications against which scholars of different persuasions (from philosophers of science to fathers of the ecological movement) have battled with now for over half a century. The issue is compounded today by the emergence of serious problems in the system of quality control of science which has in statistical and mathematical modelling a point of intense vulnerability and friction, as the daily bulletin on reproducibility, p-hacking and other statistical malpractices - from epidemiology to criminology, from pharmacology to psychology - keeps reminding us.
The present course is intended hence as a modest epistemological therapy, a sort of deprogramming which by way of examples introduces the students to concepts of responsible quantification, while showing the pitfalls of reductionism and how this manifests itself in mathematical or statistical based modelling work.
The course includes an analysis of the genesis of the Cartesian Dream of prediction and control of nature and society thanks to the power of a mathematized science. We discuss the incredible success of the dream as well as its historical, philosophical and ecological critique.
Specifically we explore the role of quantification in the context of the dream and of its variants in the field of Economics. Other themes touched are quantification as reductionism and hypocognition, and cost benefit analysis versus multi-criteria analysis.
The course also tackles current problems of quantification in the context of science's quality control difficulties. Some technical material here touches on statistical procedures and malpractices (p-hacking being but one example), ethics of quantification and instances of corruption - and again focusing on the quantification element in the plot.
The good practices advocated and described in the course are inspired by post normal science. These include:
- the use of pedigrees for quantification such as NUSAP,
- technical sensitivity analysis,
See more resource at: www.andreasaltelli.eu
Presentations
See Andrea Saltelli's website for an overview of the different lectures and presentations held during the course.
Programme
Please note that there might be changes to the programme.
Monday 13.3
9.15–10.00 | Round table presentation. Discussion of participants’ motivations for attending the course. | Trainers and participants 45 m |
10.00–10.15 | Break |
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10.15–11.00 | Introduction to the course. What is wrong with ‘Doubt has been eliminated’? | Professor Roger Strand |
11.00–11.15 | Break |
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11.15–12.00 | Science: is there a crisis? The case of the p-test | Professor Andrea Saltelli |
12.00–12.15 | Break |
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12.15–13.00 | When Laypeople are Right and Experts are Wrong: Lessons from Love Canal. | Professor Ragnar Fjelland |
13.00–14.00 | Lunch |
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14.00–16.00 | Group work |
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Tuesday 14.3
9.15–10.00 | Why Quantify? Quantification and trust; Evidence based policy and its opposite; Evidence as the currency of the lobbies; The Mathiness discussion in Economics; | Professor Andrea Saltelli |
10.00–10.15 | Break |
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10.15–11.00 | The origins of the Cartesian dream; Galileo and modelling | Professor Roger Strand |
11.00–11.15 | Break |
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11.15–12.00 | Climate blues and climate wars; | Professor Jeroen van der Sluijs and Professor Andrea Saltelli |
12.00–12.15 | Break |
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12.15–13.00 | Issues with ethics; Hippocratic oath and policy failures.
| Professor Matthias Kaiser |
13.00–14.00 | Lunch |
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14.00–16.00 | Group work |
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Wednesday 15.3
9.15–10.00 | Prodromes of PNS: Trans-science; Three types of risk assessment: The rainbow diagram and its evolution; Post-normal science & legacy: Facts-Values, Models of Science & Policy. | Professor Silvio Funtowicz |
10.00–10.15 | Break |
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10.15–11.00 | Continuing “Prodromes of PNS…” | Professor Silvio Funtowicz |
11.00–11.15 | Break |
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11.15–12.00 | NUSAP’s history and practice | Professor Jeroen van der Sluijs |
12.00–12.15 | Break |
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12.15–13.00 | The now of science. | Professor Andrea Saltelli and Professor Silvio Funtowicz |
13.00–14.00 | Lunch |
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14.00–16.00 | Group work |
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Thursday 16.3
9.15–10.00 | Sensitivity analysis; Why most published sensitivity analysis are wrong; Good practices; A bit of calculus; The case of the Stern Review; The secrets of sensitivity analysis | Professor Andrea Saltelli |
10.00–10.15 | Break |
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10.15–11.00 | Continuing “Sensitivity analysis …” | Professor Andrea Saltelli |
11.00–11.15 | Break |
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11.15–12.00 | Continuing “Sensitivity analysis …” | Professor Andrea Saltelli |
12.00–12.15 | Break |
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12.15–13.00 | Sensitivity analysis in and with NUSAP. | Professor Jeroen van der Sluijs |
13.00–14.00 | Lunch |
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14.00–16.00 | Group work |
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Friday 17.3
9.15–10.00 | On Reductionism | Professor Ragnar Fjelland |
10.00–10.15 | Break |
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10.15–11.00 | Sensitivity auditing; The seven rules with illustrations; Quantitative story telling against hypocognition & Socially constructed ignorance; Decalogue of the diligent quantifier | Professor Andrea Saltelli and Professor Silvio Funtowicz |
11.00–11.15 | Break |
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11.15–12.00 | Continuing “Sensitivity auditing…” | Professor Andrea Saltelli and Professor Silvio Funtowicz |
12.00–12.15 | Break |
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12.15–13.00 | Discussion |
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13.00–14.00 | Lunch |
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14.00–15.00 | Lessons learned and discussion.
| Professor Andrea Saltelli |
Supporting Material
‘Resource’ means material for further reading. ‘Read’ means material for the course.
Lesson 1
Read excerpts: Resource Ravetz, J., 1971, Scientific Knowledge and its Social Problems, Oxford University Press.
Lesson 2
Read Chapter 8. Resource: Winner, L., 1986. The Whale and the Reactor: a Search for Limits in an Age of High Technology. The University of Chicago Press.
Read excerpts. Resource: E. F. Schumacher, 1973, Small Is Beautiful. Economics as if People Mattered, Harper Perennial 2010.
Lesson 3
Lesson 4
Lesson 5
Read Saltelli, A., Giampietro, M., Ravetz, J.R., 2016, Decalogue of the diligent quantifier. A Pledge.
Audio-visual material:
Workshop on responsible quantification, with videos.
Admission
PhD-candidates and postdocs are eligible to apply. Applicants will be asked to describe their research project (max. 2000 words) while signing up.
Early bird - sign up before 16. January and receive an answer (Yes/No/Waiting list) by 19 January.
Late registration - sign up before 23. February and receive answer by 26. February.
After 23. February - contact course admin.
Accreditation
3 / 5 ECTS
Requirements for 3 ECTS version:
a) preparation: reading of course material
b) preparation: submission of 1-2 page text where they explain their "problem" or "concern" or other reflection that fit the course topic
c) attendance
d) short "reflection memo" after the course
Requirements for 5 ECTS version:
a) preparation: reading of course material
b) preparation: submission of 1-2 page text where they explain their "problem" or "concern" or other reflection that fit the course topic
c) attendance
d) submission of outline/topic for final essay
e) final essay
The course participants themselves are each responsible for course approval at home institution / department.
Arranged by
Centre for the Study of the Sciences and the Humanities
University of Bergen
Intake
18
Language of instruction
English
Contact
Academic contact person: Andrea Saltelli
Administrative contact person: Idunn B. Tandstad
No course fee
