Noel Keenlysides bilde

Noel Keenlyside

  • E-postNoel.Keenlyside@uib.no
  • Telefon+47 55 58 20 32
  • Besøksadresse
    Allegt. 70
  • Postadresse
    Postboks 7803
    5020 BERGEN

Current research interest

  • Decadal variability and predictability of climate
  • Tropical interannual climate variability and predictability
  • Extra-tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction
  • Super climate modelling

Five recent publications


GEOF327: The General Circulation of the Atmosphere

GEOF212: Physical Climatology

  • King, Martin Peter; Herceg-Bulic, Ivana; Blade, Ileana; García-Serrano, Javier; Keenlyside, Noel; Kucharski, Fred; Li, Camille; Sobolowski, Stefan Pieter. 2018. Importance of late fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-17-0020.1
  • Gleixner, Stephanie Nikola; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Counillon, Francois; Wang, Yiguo; Viste, Ellen. 2017. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models. Environmental Research Letters. 12. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/aa8cfa
  • King, Martin Peter; Herceg-Bulić, Ivana; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel. 2017. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November. Climate Dynamics. 50: 1881-1899. Publisert 2017-05-10. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3727-5
  • Koseki, Shunya; Keenlyside, Noel; Demissie, Teferi Dejene; Toniazzo, Thomas; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Ilicak, Mehmet; Shen, Mao-Lin. 2017. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics. 1-20. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3896-2
  • Luo, Feifei; Li, Shuanglin; Gao, Yongqi; Keenlyside, Noel; Svendsen, Lea; Furevik, Tore. 2017. The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics. 1-17. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-4062-6
  • Nnamchi, Hyacinth C; Kucharski, Fred; Keenlyside, Noel; Farneti, Riccardo. 2017. Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices. Atmospheric Science Letters. 18: 396-402. doi: 10.1002/asl.781
  • Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Nakamura, Hisashi; Nishii, Kazuaki; Keenlyside, Noel. 2017. Impact of Oceanic Front on the Tropospheric Climatic Trend Induced by Ozone Depletion. CLIVAR Newsletter Exchanges. 71: 37-42. Publisert 2017-03-22.
  • Richter, Ingo; Doi, Takeshi; Behera, Swadhin K; Keenlyside, Noel. 2017. On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective. Climate Dynamics. 1-20. doi: 10.1007/s00382-017-3809-4
  • Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Bhatt, Bhuwan Chandra; Duane, Gregory. 2017. Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate. Chaos. 27. doi: 10.1063/1.4990713
  • Sillmann, Jana; Thorarinsdottir, Thordis Linda; Keenlyside, Noel; Schaller, Nathalie; Alexander, L. V.; Hegerl, Gabi; Seneviratne, Sonia I.; Vautard, Robert; Zhang, Xuebin; Zwiers, Francis W. 2017. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate Extremes. 18: 65-74. doi: 10.1016/j.wace.2017.10.003
  • Tseng, Wan-Ling; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Keenlyside, Noel; Chang, Chiung-Wen June; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Tu, Chen-Yi; Jiang, Li-Chiang. 2017. Effects of surface orography and land-sea contrast on the Madden-Julian oscillation in the maritime continent: A numerical study using ECHAM5-SIT. Journal of Climate. 30: 9725-9741. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0051.1
  • Wang, Yiguo; Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Bocquet, Marc; Shen, Mao-Lin. 2017. Optimising assimilation of hydrographic profiles into isopycnal ocean models with ensemble data assimilation. Ocean Modelling. 114: 33-44. doi: 10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.04.007
  • Zanchettin, Davide; Gaetan, Carlo; Arisido, Maeregu Woldeyes; Modali, Kameswarrao; Toniazzo, Thomas; Keenlyside, Noel; Rubino, Angelo. 2017. Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports. 7:12862: 1-11. doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-13144-2
  • Årthun, Marius; Eldevik, Tor; Viste, Ellen; Drange, Helge; Furevik, Tore; Johnson, Helen L.; Keenlyside, Noel. 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications. 8:15875: 1-11. doi: 10.1038/ncomms15875
  • Cabos, William; Sein, Dmitry V.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Fink, Andreas H.; Koldunov, Nikolay V.; Alvarez, Francisco; Izquierdo, Alfredo; Keenlyside, Noel; Jacob, Daniela. 2016. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics. Published ahead of print: 1-19. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3319-9
  • Counillon, Francois; Keenlyside, Noel; Bethke, Ingo; Wang, Yiguo; Billeau, Sebastien; Shen, Mao-Lin; Bentsen, Mats. 2016. Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian climate prediction model. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 68:32437. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v68.32437
  • Dieppois, Bastien; Pohl, Benjamin; Rouault, Mathieu; New, Mark; Lawler, Damian; Keenlyside, Noel. 2016. Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections. Journal of Geophysical Research - Atmospheres. doi: 10.1002/2015JD024576
  • Gleixner, Stephanie Nikola; Keenlyside, Noel; Viste, Ellen; Korecha, Diriba. 2016. The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall. Climate Dynamics. 1-19. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3421-z
  • Keenlyside, Noel; Dommenget, Dietmar. 2016. The fingerprint of global warming in the Tropical Pacific. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 33: 533-534. doi: 10.1007/s00376-016-6014-1
  • Mechoso, Carlos R.; Losada, Teresa; Koseki, Shunya; Mohino, Elsa; Keenlyside, Noel; Castaño-Tierno, Antonio; Myers, Timothy A.; Rodriguez-Fonseca, Belén; Toniazzo, Thomas. 2016. Can reducing the incoming energy flux over the Southern Ocean in a CGCM improve its simulation of tropical climate? Geophysical Research Letters. 43: 11,057-11,063. doi: 10.1002/2016GL071150
  • Mohino, Elsa; Keenlyside, Noel; Pohlmann, Holger. 2016. Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? Climate Dynamics. 47: 3593-3612. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3416-9
  • Nnamchi, Hyacinth C.; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Kang, In-Sik; Keenlyside, Noel; Chang, Ping; Farneti, Riccardo. 2016. An equatorial-extratropical dipole structure of the Atlantic Niño. Journal of Climate. 29: 7295-7311. doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0894.1
  • Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Bader, Jürgen; Keenlyside, Noel; Manzini, Elisa. 2016. Troposphere–stratosphere response to large-scale North Atlantic Ocean variability in an atmosphere/ocean coupled model. Climate Dynamics. 46: 1397-1415. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2654-6
  • Reintges, Annika; Martin, Thomas; Latif, Mojib; Keenlyside, Noel. 2016. Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics. doi: 10.1007/s00382-016-3180-x
  • Shen, Mao-Lin; Keenlyside, Noel; Selten, Frank; Wiegerinck, Wim; Duane, Gregory. 2016. Dynamically combining climate models to "supermodel" the tropical Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters. 43: 359-366. doi: 10.1002/2015GL066562
  • Bellucci, Alessio; Haarsma, Reindert J.; Bellouin, Nicolas; Booth, Beatrice; Cagnazzo, Chiara; Van Den Hurk, Bart; Keenlyside, Noel; Koenigk, Torben; Massonnet, François; Materia, Stefano; Weiss, Martina M. 2015. Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers. Reviews of geophysics. 53: 165-202. doi: 10.1002/2014RG000473
  • Chang, Chiung-Wen June; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Huang-Hsiung, Hsu; Keenlyside, Noel; Tsuang, Ben-Jei. 2015. The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters. 42: 6034-6042. Publisert 2015-07-31. doi: 10.1002/2015GL065095
  • Ding, Hui; Keenlyside, Noel; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Wahl, Sebastian. 2015. The impact of mean state errors on equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in a climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research - Oceans. 120: 1133-1151. doi: 10.1002/2014JC010384
  • King, Martin Peter; Hell, Momme; Keenlyside, Noel. 2015. Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics. 46: 1185-1195. doi: 10.1007/s00382-015-2639-5
  • Mecking, Jennifer V.; Keenlyside, Noel; Greatbatch, Richard J. 2015. Multiple timescales of stochastically forced North Atlantic Ocean variability: A model study. Ocean Dynamics. 65: 1367-1381. doi: 10.1007/s10236-015-0868-0
  • Nnamchi, Hyacinth C; Li, Jianping; Kucharski, Fred; Kang, In-Sik; Keenlyside, Noel; Chang, Ping; Farneti, Riccardo. 2015. Thermodynamic controls of the Atlantic Niño. Nature Communications. 6. doi: 10.1038/ncomms9895
  • Ogawa, Fumiaki; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Nishii, Kazuaki; Nakamura, Hisashi; Keenlyside, Noel. 2015. Ozone-induced climate change propped up by the Southern Hemisphere oceanic front. Geophysical Research Letters. 42: 10056-10063. doi: 10.1002/2015GL066538
  • Ba, Jin; Keenlyside, Noel; Latif, Mojib; Park, Wonsun; Ding, Hui; Lohmann, Katja; Mignot, Juliette; Menary, Matthew; Otterå, Odd Helge; Wouters, Bert; Salas y Mélia, David; Oka, Akira; Bellucci, Alessio; Volodin, Evgeny. 2014. A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dynamics. 43: 2333-2348. Publisert 2014-01-30. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2056-1
  • Counillon, Francois; Bethke, Ingo; Keenlyside, Noel; Bentsen, Mats; Bertino, Laurent; Zheng, Fei. 2014. Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble kalman filter and the Norwegian earth System Model: A twin experiment. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography. 66:21074. doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074
  • Furevik, Tore; Hviding, Edvard; Keenlyside, Noel. 2014. “Svakere vinder kan redde Sydhavsøyene – enn så lenge”. Bergens Tidende. 16-17. Publisert 2014-09-29.
  • Gao, Yongqi; Sun, Jianqi; Li, Fei; He, Shengping; Sandven, Stein; Yan, Qing; Zhang, Zhongshi; Lohmann, Katja; Keenlyside, Noel; Furevik, Tore; Suo, Lingling. 2014. Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 32: 92-114. doi: 10.1007/s00376-014-0009-6
  • Gleixner, Stephanie Nikola; Keenlyside, Noel; Hodges, Kevin I.; Tseng, Wan-Ling; Bengtsson, Lennart. 2014. An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming. Climate Dynamics. 42: 2147-2157. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1914-6
  • Hand, Ralf; Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib. 2014. Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region. Climate Dynamics. 42: 715-731. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1715-y
  • Keenlyside, Noel; Omrani, Nour-Eddine. 2014. Has a warm North Atlantic contributed to recent European cold winters? Environmental Research Letters. 9. doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/9/6/061001
  • Mecking, J. V.; Keenlyside, Noel; Greatbatch, R. J. 2014. Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study. Climate Dynamics. 43: 271-288. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1930-6
  • Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Keenlyside, Noel; Bader, Jürgen; Manzini, E. 2014. Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions. Climate Dynamics. 42: 649-663. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1860-3
  • Svendsen, Lea; Hetzinger, Steffen; Keenlyside, Noel; Gao, Yongqi. 2014. Marine-based multiproxy reconstruction of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters. 41: 1295-1300. doi: 10.1002/2013GL059076
  • Tseng, Wan-Ling; Tsuang, Ben-Jei; Keenlyside, Noel; Hsu, Huang-Hsiung; Tu, Chia-Ying. 2014. Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Climate Dynamics. 44: 1487-1503. doi: 10.1007/s00382-014-2315-1
  • Ba, Jin; Keenlyside, Noel; Park, Wonsun; Latif, Mojib; Hawkins, Ed; Ding, Hui. 2013. A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics. 41: 2133-2144. doi: 10.1007/s00382-012-1633-4
  • Gulev, Sergey K.; Latif, Mojib; Keenlyside, Noel; Park, Wonsun; Koltermann, Klaus Peter. 2013. North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales. Nature. 499: 464-467. doi: 10.1038/nature12268
  • Keenlyside, Noel; Ding, Hui; Latif, Mojib. 2013. Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction. Geophysical Research Letters. 40: 2278-2283. doi: 10.1002/grl.50362
  • Pohlmann, Holger; Smith, Doug M.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Keenlyside, Noel; Masina, Simona; Matei, Daniela; Müller, Wolfgang A.; Rogel, Philippe. 2013. Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics. 41: 775-785. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1663-6
  • Svendsen, Lea; Kvamstø, Nils G; Keenlyside, Noel. 2013. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. Climate Dynamics. 11 sider. doi: 10.1007/s00382-013-1904-8
  • Hetzinger, Steffen; Halfar, Jochen; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Keenlyside, Noel; Kronz, Andreas; Steneck, Robert S.; Adey, Walter H.; Lebednik, Phil A. 2012. Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate. Climate Dynamics. 39: 1447-1455. doi: 10.1007/s00382-011-1229-4
  • Keenlyside, Noel; Ba, Jin; Mecking, Jennifer V.; Omrani, Nour-Eddine; Latif, Mojib; Zhang, Rong; Msadek, Rym. 2015. North Atlantic multi-decadal variability - mechanisms and predictability. Chapter 9, sider 141-158. I:
    • Chang, Chih-Pei; Ghil, Michael; Latif, Mojib; Wallace, John M. 2015. Climate Change: Multidecadal and Beyond. 388 sider. ISBN: 978-981-4579-92-6.

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2011 - Professor, Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen

2014 - Adjunct position, Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center 

2008-2013 Head, Emmy Noether Research Group, IFM-GEOMAR/GFI

2005-2008 Research Scientist, IFM-GEOMAR

2003-2005 Postdoctoral fellow, IFM-GEOMAR (formerly IFM), University of Kiel

2001-2003 Postdoctoral fellow, Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg

1997-2001 Tutor, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Monash University


1997-2001  Doctor of Philosophy, Monash University, Australia

1996 First Class Honours in Physics, University of Tasmania

1992-1995   Bachelor of Science (Physics and Mathematics), University of Tasmania


2015 ERC Consolidator Grant

2007 Fellow in the Emmy Noether Program of the DFG (German Research Foundation)

2006 NORBERT GERBIER - MUMM International Award



2015-2020, ERC Consolidator Grant, Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate prediction (STERCP)

2014-2017 NordForsk TRI, Impact of Future Cryospheric Changes on Northern Hemisphere. Climate, Green Growth and Society (GREENICE)

2013-2017 NFR, Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)

2014-2017 EU FP7, Enhancing prediction of Tropical Atlantic climate and its impacts (PREFACE)

2012-2016 EU: Marie Curie Career Integration Grants (CIG), Strategies toward enhancing prediction of climate and its impacts (STEPS)


Previous (selected)

2010-2013 EU: STREP, Supermodeling by combining imperfect models (SUMO)

2008-2013 Emmy Noether research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG): "Mechanisms and predictability of North Atlantic Decadal Climate variability"