System Dynamics Modeling for Manila Bay: The Case of Metro Manila

Abstract

System Dynamics is a methodology based on modeling, simulation, and analysis. It helps to investigate and model structures that cause problematic dynamic developments on social systems, and to re-design prescriptive models in the management of such systems. In the Coastal Ocean Assessment for Sustainability and Transformation (COAST Card) project, the method has been introduced to investigate the complex and dynamic problems that cause challenges in resilient and sustainable utilization of coastal and marine environments in iconic locations in the world – Chesapeake Bay (USA), Manila Bay (Philippines), Goa Coast (India), Tokyo Bay and Ishigaki Island (Japan); and to provide guidance that would facilitate the sustainable management of these coastal and marine environments. In this talk, we highlight how the system dynamics methodology has been applied in the COAST Card project drawing on a case from Manila Bay. Using system dynamics models, we assess how the population dynamics and the sewage system in Metro Manila affect the pollution in the Manila Bay. Also, we highlight the feedback we received from our stakeholders in a recent workshop conducted in Manila, the Philippines.

Keynote Speakers Bio

Dr. Tadesse is a postdoctoral research fellow at the University of Bergen, Department of Geography, System Dynamics Group. In the COAST Card project, he leads the System Dynamics model development. Broadly, Dr. Tadesse´s research focuses on model-based study of complex dynamic systems and the dissemination of insights about such systems with students, decision makers, stakeholders, and the public in general. Dr. Tadesse has a bachelor and master’s degrees in Physics and a master and PhD degrees in System Dynamics.

Prof Emeritus Davidsen is Professor of System Dynamics (SD) at University of Bergen (UiB), Norway. He has a Mag. Art. in Information Science. Pål has served with Professor Jay W. Forrester (MIT) as Associate Chair of the Pre-College Education Project. At UiB, he founded the System Dynamics Group and the Educational Information Science and Technology Programme and is cofounder of the European Masters Programme in SD. He served as President and as VP of Publications in the System Dynamics Society (SDS) and received the SDS Outstanding Service Award. Prof Emeritus Davidsen has published e.g. on natural resource management, public health, analysis of complex, dynamic systems, and model-based interactive learning environments.

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