Postgraduate course

Models and Methods in Numerical Weather Prediction

  • ECTS credits10
  • Teaching semesterSpring
  • Course codeGEOF321
  • Number of semesters1
  • LanguageEnglish
  • Resources

Level of Study


Semester of Instruction

Spring. The course is only offered if enough students enrol.

Place of Instruction


Objectives and Content

GEOF321 is an introduction to modern weather forecasting based on numerical models, as well as presenting initialisation and post-processing methods. The elements of numerical models for weather and climate prediction are explained and guidance for their interpretation is given. Weaknesses and caveats associated with spatial and temporal resolution, parameterised processes, boundary and initial conditions are explored. An introduction is given to the analysis and tracing of forecasting errors, predictability, data assimilation, and ensemble forecasting. Physical and dynamical processes in the atmosphere related to weather systems are revisited and used in connection with the interpretation of output of numerical weather prediction models.

Learning Outcomes

Upon completing GEOF321 the student should:

- know about the construction and limitations of numerical weather prediction models

- understand the concepts of predictability, ensemble forecasting, and data assimilation

- know the products of modern weather forecasting

- be able to prepare basic weather forecasts

- assess uncertainties of weather forecasts

- relate model uncertainties to relevant atmospheric processes

- display and analyse numerical weather prediction model output

Required Previous Knowledge

Bachelor in meteorology and oceanography, or equivalent programs.

Recommended Previous Knowledge

GEOF211, GEOF220 together with either GEOF311 or GEOF310, or equivalent courses.

Teaching Methods and Extent of Organized Teaching

2 lectures à 2 hours per week

1 exercise à 2 hours per week

Compulsory Assignments and Attendance

Regular attendance of the course exercises including presentation of own solutions.

Valid for four semesters: The semester mandatory activities have been approved and the three following semesters.

Forms of Assessment

Written mid-term exam, counts 20% of the final grade and is valid for two semester. Must have attended the mid-term exam to take the final oral exam.

Final oral exam, 45 min, counts 80% of the grade, must be passed. No auxiliaries allowed for the exam.

Grading Scale

The grading scale used is A to F. Grade A is the highest passing grade in the grading scale, grade F is a fail.

Subject Overlap



Geophysical Institute

Exam information

  • Type of assessment: Written and oral examination

    Withdrawal deadline