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  • E-mailNoel.Keenlyside@uib.no
  • Phone+47 55 58 20 32+47 944 25 297
  • Visitor Address
    Allegaten 70
    Bergen
    Room 
    134
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7803
    5020 BERGEN

Current research interest

  • Decadal variability and predictability of climate
  • Tropical interannual climate variability and predictability
  • Extra-tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction
  • Super climate modelling
  • Climate-based predictions of marine ecosystems

Master projects

I can offer the following potential master thesis topics:

  • The Indian summer monsoon in the Norwegian earth system model (Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside)
  • Why is the ITCZ North of the Equator? (Noel Keenlyside, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø)
  • Variability and predictability of the Atlantic Niño (Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki)
  • Atlantic decadal variability and prediction (Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon) 
  • Marine heatwaves, their predictability and implications to Norwegian fishery (Jana Sillman (CICERO), Noel Keenlyside)
  • Hemispheric atmospheric wave resonance and the effect on Nordic energy production (Noel Keenlyside, Tarjei Breiteig (Agder Energi))

You can read more information here, or please contact me by email.

Five recent publications

Book chapters

Master projects

I can offer the following potential master thesis topics:

  • The Indian summer monsoon in the Norwegian earth system model (Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside)
  • Why is the ITCZ North of the Equator? (Noel Keenlyside, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø)
  • Variability and predictability of the Atlantic Niño (Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki)
  • Atlantic decadal variability and prediction (Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon) 
  • Marine heatwaves, their predictability and implications to Norwegian fishery (Jana Sillman (CICERO), Noel Keenlyside)
  • Hemispheric atmospheric wave resonance and the effect on Nordic energy production (Noel Keenlyside, Tarjei Breiteig (Agder Energi))

You can read more information here, or please contact me by email.

Courses

GEOF348: Advanced Climate Dynamics

Previous

GEOF327: The General Circulation of the Atmosphere

GEOF212Physical Climatology

Academic article
  • Show author(s) 2021. Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics. 2617-2630.
  • Show author(s) 2021. NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geoscientific Model Development.
  • Show author(s) 2021. Diabatic heating governs the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. Nature Communications. 1-10.
  • Show author(s) 2020. The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability. The Cryosphere. 693-708.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model. Climate Dynamics. 4759-4773.
  • Show author(s) 2020. North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific. Weather and Climate Extremes.
  • Show author(s) 2020. El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast. Progress in Oceanography.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science.
  • Show author(s) 2020. A Satellite Era Warming Hole in the Equatorial Atlantic Ocean. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Oceans.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming. Indian Journal of Pure & Applied Physics. 1-10.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Significant multidecadal variability in German wind energy generation. Wind Energy Science. 515-526.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF. Climate Dynamics. 5777-5797.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Role of wind stress in driving SST biases in the tropical Atlantic. Climate Dynamics. 3481-3504.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Pantropical climate interactions. Science.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Key Role of the Ocean Western Boundary currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate. Scientific Reports.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Inconsistent Wind Speed Trends in Current Twentieth Century Reanalyses. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Space Physics. 1931-1940.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels. Earth System Dynamics. 789-807.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Impact of snow initialization in subseasonal-to-seasonal winter forecasts with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres. 10033-10048.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. 4147-4166.
  • Show author(s) 2019. An Atlantic-driven rapid circulation change in the North Pacific Ocean during the late 1990s. Scientific Reports. 1-8.
  • Show author(s) 2019. A North-South Contrast of Subsurface Salinity Anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific From 2002 to 2013. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Space Physics. 1795-1806.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Time Scales and Sources of European Temperature Variability. Geophysical Research Letters. 3597-3604.
  • Show author(s) 2018. The role of the sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics. 1-20.
  • Show author(s) 2018. The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector. Climate Dynamics. 1-22.
  • Show author(s) 2018. The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Industrial Revolution is intrinsic to the climate system. Environmental Research Letters. 1-9.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 38-51.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Pacific contribution to the early twentieth-century warming in the Arctic. Nature Climate Change. 793-797.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa. Monthly Weather Review. 4339-4356.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Importance of late fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). 1337-1343.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas. Climate Dynamics. 1-27.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Evaluating Impacts of Recent Arctic Sea Ice Loss on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Climate Change. Geophysical Research Letters. 3255-3263.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola building Angolan oceanographic capacities. Bulletin of The American Meteorological Society - (BAMS). 1589-1605.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. . PLOS ONE. 1-13.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change. 101-108.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas current. Geophysical Research Letters. 5185-5193.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. Weather and Climate Extremes. 65-74.
  • Show author(s) 2017. The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics. 1-17.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports. 1-11.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications. 1-11.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models. Environmental Research Letters.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate. Chaos.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Optimising assimilation of hydrographic profiles into isopycnal ocean models with ensemble data assimilation. Ocean Modelling. 33-44.
  • Show author(s) 2017. On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective. Climate Dynamics. 1-20.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November. Climate Dynamics. 1881-1899.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Impact of Oceanic Front on the Tropospheric Climatic Trend Induced by Ozone Depletion. CLIVAR Newsletter Exchanges. 37-42.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Effects of surface orography and land-sea contrast on the Madden-Julian oscillation in the maritime continent: A numerical study using ECHAM5-SIT. Journal of Climate. 9725-9741.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola–Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System Model. Climate Dynamics. 1-20.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices. Atmospheric Science Letters. 396-402.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Uncertainty in twenty-first century projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Climate Dynamics.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Troposphere–stratosphere response to large-scale North Atlantic Ocean variability in an atmosphere/ocean coupled model. Climate Dynamics. 1397-1415.
  • Show author(s) 2016. The fingerprint of global warming in the Tropical Pacific. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 533-534.
  • Show author(s) 2016. The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics. 1-19.
  • Show author(s) 2016. The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall. Climate Dynamics. 1-19.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Interannual to interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Atmospheres.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Flow-dependent assimilation of sea surface temperature in isopycnal coordinates with the Norwegian climate prediction model . Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Dynamically combining climate models to "supermodel" the tropical Pacific. Geophysical Research Letters. 359-366.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack thereof) come from? Climate Dynamics. 3593-3612.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Can reducing the incoming energy flux over the Southern Ocean in a CGCM improve its simulation of tropical climate? Geophysical Research Letters. 11,057-11,063.
  • Show author(s) 2016. An equatorial-extratropical dipole structure of the Atlantic Niño. Journal of Climate. 7295-7311.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Thermodynamic controls of the Atlantic Niño. Nature Communications.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The impact of mean state errors on equatorial Atlantic interannual variability in a climate model. Journal of Geophysical Research (JGR): Oceans. 1133-1151.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world. Geophysical Research Letters. 6034-6042.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Ozone-induced climate change propped up by the Southern Hemisphere oceanic front. Geophysical Research Letters. 10056-10063.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Multiple timescales of stochastically forced North Atlantic Ocean variability: A model study. Ocean Dynamics. 1367-1381.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere. Climate Dynamics. 1185-1195.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditions. Climate Dynamics. 649-663.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: a model study. Climate Dynamics. 271-288.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region. Climate Dynamics. 715-731.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble kalman filter and the Norwegian earth System Model: A twin experiment. Tellus. Series A, Dynamic meteorology and oceanography.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Climate Dynamics. 1487-1503.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Marine-based multiproxy reconstruction of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Geophysical Research Letters. 1295-1300.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. 92-114.
  • Show author(s) 2014. An inter-hemispheric comparison of the tropical storm response to global warming. Climate Dynamics. 2147-2157.
  • Show author(s) 2014. A multi-model comparison of Atlantic multidecadal variability. Climate Dynamics. 2333-2348.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. Climate Dynamics. 11 pages.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Climate Dynamics. 775-785.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Potential of equatorial Atlantic variability to enhance El Niño prediction. Geophysical Research Letters. 2278-2283.
  • Show author(s) 2013. North Atlantic Ocean control on surface heat flux on multidecadal timescales. Nature. 464-467.
  • Show author(s) 2013. A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Climate Dynamics. 2133-2144.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climate. Climate Dynamics. 1447-1455.
Lecture
  • Show author(s) 2019. The role of model bias for prediction skill and methods to constrain it.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Status of climate prediction and future challenges: a perspective from Norway.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Recent developments of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model for seasonal to decadal predictions.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Enhancing the skill of dynamical climate prediction: Avenue explored with the NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Enhanced skill of dynamical prediction in the Arctic.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Dynamical climate predictions at the Bjerknes Center.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Development and current S2D prediction skill of the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model .
  • Show author(s) 2017. Interannual tropical Pacific SST anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere in November.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Reanalysis and climate prediction with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model .
  • Show author(s) 2016. Reanalysis and climate prediction with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model .
  • Show author(s) 2016. Flow dependent assimilation of SST in isopycnal coordinate with the NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The super model approach to climate projections for the Tropical Pacific.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The super model approach to climate projections for the Tropical Pacific.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The super model approach to climate projections for the Tropical Pacific.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) and Pacemaker experiments.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The North Atlantic Ocean role in shaping regional climate change.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a Warming World.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Mid-Latitude Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Linking Barents Kara sea ice in autumn to the winter atmospheric circulation.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere.
Popular scientific lecture
  • Show author(s) 2020. Forecasting the Ocean - from temperature to fish.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Impact of global warming on tropical cyclones, The Rising Ocean: The Pacific Islands and Global Climate Change.
Academic lecture
  • Show author(s) 2020. Pacific versus Atlantic Contributions to Multidecadal Variability in the Arctic: A Multi-Model Intercomparison.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Damped multidecadal stratosphere/troposphere/Ocean-coupled oscillation as framework for northern hemisphere climate variability.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Attribution of Predictive Skill Along the Atlantic Water Pathway.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Approaches to reduce model biases and initialize high-resolution climate models.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating SST data with the EnKF.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Pacific contribution to decadal temperature trends in the Arctic during the 20th century.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM).
  • Show author(s) 2019. NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) Winter Forecasts with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Assessing the contribution of ocean and sea ice initialization for seasonal prediction in the Arctic.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Tropical Atlantic model error and regional projections of climate change.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Subtropical North Atlantic preconditioning key to skilful subpolar gyre prediction.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Seasonal prediction skill in the tropical Atlantic using anomaly coupling.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Optimised assimilation of sea ice concentration and implications for climate prediction.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Evaluating impacts of the Arctic sea ice loss and variation on the northern hemisphere climate.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Evaluating impacts of recent Arctic sea-ice loss on the northern hemisphere winter climate change.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Driver of the recent decadal warming over Greenland and Northern Canada.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Can we use flow dependent assimilation with a high resolution Earth System Model ?
  • Show author(s) 2017. Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change -GREENICE project.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Impact of Sea Ice/SST Changes for the Observed Climate Change.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemisphere land areas in multi-model ensemble simulations.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Climate prediction with the Norwegian model NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Climate prediction with NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Arctic Climate Predictions: Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies .
  • Show author(s) 2017. A coordinated multi-model study on the impacts of recent Arctic sea ice loss on northern hemisphere climate changes.
  • Show author(s) 2017. A coordinated multi-model study on the impacts of recent Arctic sea ice loss on northern hemisphere climate changes.
  • Show author(s) 2016. The link between Atlantic multi-decadal variability and the Indian summer monsoon.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Importance of mid-latitude oceanic frontal zone and associated baroclinic eddies on the ozone-induced stratosphere/troposphere coupling.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change –GREENICE project–.
  • Show author(s) 2016. External forcing as a source for the observed multi-decadal relation between AMV and the Indian summer monsoon.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Data assimilation of sea ice within the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Assimilating sea ice in the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The Pacific Ocean as a climate change frontline: Anthropology and Meteorology.
  • Show author(s) 2015. The Indian Summer Monsoon and Atlantic Multi-decadal variability.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Role of the Midlatitude Oceanic Front in the Ozone-induced Climate Change in the Southern Hemisphere as Revealed by Aqua Planet experiments.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Potential Importance of a Midlatitude Oceanic Frontal Zone in the Annular-Mode Variability and Relevant Climate Change as Revealed in Aqua Planet Experiments.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Investigating the role of the Atlantic and Pacific in the early 20th century warming.
  • Show author(s) 2015. Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change –GREENICE project–.
  • Show author(s) 2014. The influence of Atlantic multi-decadal variability on the Indian summer monsoon.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Seasonal-to-decadal prediction with NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Seasonal to decadal prediction with NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Seasonal to decadal prediction with NorCPM.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Weakening AMOC connects equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability.
  • Show author(s) 2013. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STRATOSPHERE FOR WINTERTIME ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY.
  • Show author(s) 2013. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE STRATOSPHERE FOR WINTERTIME ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE TO ATLANTIC MULTI-DECADAL VARIABILITY.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM: a twin experiment.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM: a twin experiment.
  • Show author(s) 2013. SENSITIVITY OF EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC VARIABILITY TO MEAN STATE BIASES.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Multi-decadal variability in Atlantic SST and Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in proxy records.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments.
  • Show author(s) 2012. The role of the stratosphere in decadal climate variability in the extra-tropical Northern Hemisphere in winter.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM.
  • Show author(s) 2012. SENSITIVITY OF EQUATORIAL ATLANTIC VARIABILITY TO MEAN STATE BIASES.
  • Show author(s) 2012. OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE INTERACTION KEY ASPECT OF THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION.
  • Show author(s) 2012. North Atlantic Decadal-to-Multidecadal Variability - Mechanism and Predictability.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Near-term climate prediction: new opportunities and challenge.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Near-term climate prediction: new opportunities and challenge.
  • Show author(s) 2012. NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTROL ON SURFACE HEAT FLUX AT MULTIDECADAL TIMESCALES.
  • Show author(s) 2012. ATLANTIC OCEAN CONTROL ON SURFACE HEAT FLUX AT MULTIDECADAL TIMESCALES.
Popular scientific article
  • Show author(s) 2014. “Svakere vinder kan redde Sydhavsøyene – enn så lenge”. Bergens Tidende. 16-17.
Doctoral dissertation
  • Show author(s) 2019. Ocean-atmosphere interactions in the tropical Atlantic seasonal cycle and multidecadal variability of ENSO.
  • Show author(s) 2017. Impacts of the Walker-Circulation on inter-annual Ethiopian rainfall variability and future changes in tropical cyclones.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Impacts of Atlantic multi-decadal variability on the Indo-Pacific and Northern Hemisphere climate.
Interview
  • Show author(s) 2013. Vi har de flinkeste klimaforskerne i landet.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Havet styrer været.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
  • Show author(s) 2020. The Climate Model: An ARCPATH Tool to Understand and Predict Climate Change.
  • Show author(s) 2020. The ARCPATH Project: Assessing Risky Environments and Rapid Change: Research on Climate, Adaptation and Coastal Communities in the North Atlantic Arctic. 20 pages.
  • Show author(s) 2020. Basin Interactions and predictability. 35 pages.
  • Show author(s) 2019. Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels. . 5 pages.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Supermodeling: Synchronization of Alternative Dynamical Models of a Single Objective Process. 21 pages.
  • Show author(s) 2015. North Atlantic multi-decadal variability - mechanisms and predictability. 18 pages.
Poster
  • Show author(s) 2019. Sensitivity of decadal climate predictions in the North Atlantic to anomaly initialisation choices.
  • Show author(s) 2016. Does the impact of Atlantic Niños on the Indian summer monsoon depend on the background state?
  • Show author(s) 2015. Impacts of sea ice / SST changes for the observed climate change –GREENICE project–.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Marine-based multiproxy reconstruction of Atlantic multidecadal variability.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability.
  • Show author(s) 2013. Marine-based multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic multi-decadal variability.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Wim Wiegerinck, Reducing Model Systematic Error through Super Modellin.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Simulated response of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation to a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in the Bergen Climate Model.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Seasonal changes in Arctic sea ice – atmosphere interaction.
  • Show author(s) 2012. Marine proxy and model links between the extra-tropical North Pacific and North Atlantic on decadal timescales.
Academic literature review
  • Show author(s) 2019. The tropical Atlantic observing system. Frontiers in Marine Science. 1-36.
  • Show author(s) 2019. The dominant patterns of intraseasonal rainfall variability in May-October and November-April over the tropical western Pacific. Monthly Weather Review. 2941-2960.
  • Show author(s) 2018. Equatorial Atlantic variability?Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change (WIRESs).
  • Show author(s) 2015. Advancements in decadal climate predictability: The role of nonoceanic drivers. Reviews of Geophysics. 165-202.
  • Show author(s) 2014. Has a warm North Atlantic contributed to recent European cold winters? Environmental Research Letters.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)

Google user profile

Researcher ID

Submitted manuscripts

  • Payne, M. R., G. Danabasoglu, N. Keenlyside, D. Matei, A. K. Miesner, S. Yang and S. G. Yeager (2021), Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts, submitted
  • Hermanson, L., ..... N. Keenlyside, .... et al. (2021), WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A forecast for 2021-2025, submitted to BAMS
  • Athanasiadis, P. J., .... N. Keenlyside, .... et al. (2021), Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet., submitted to J Climate
  • Shin, S.-J., S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, N. Keenlyside and S.-P. Xie (2021). Systematic biases in the Southern Ocean control the Near-Term Rate of Global Warming in climate models, submitted.
  • Crespo, L. R., S. Koseki, N. Keenlyside and Y.-C. He (2021). Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions control the equatorial Atlantic seasonal cycle, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: submitted.
  • Bethke, I., Y. Wang, F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimmritz, F. Fransner, A. Samuelsen, H. Langehaug, L. Svendsen, P. G. Chiu, L. Passos, M. Bentsen, C. Guo, A. Gupta, J. Tjiputra, A. Kirkevåg, D. Olivié, Ø. Seland, J. Solsvik Vågane, Y. Fan and T. Eldevik (2021). NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 2021: 1-84.
  • Langehaug, H. R., P. Ortega, F. Counillon, D. Matei, E. Maroon, N. Keenlyside, J. Mignot, Y. Wang, D. Swingedouw, I. Bethke, S. Yang, G. Danabasoglu, A. Bellucci, P. Ruggieri, D. Nicolì, Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential in the Northern North Atlantic, submitted to J. Climate
  • Leung, M.Y.T., W. Zhou, R. H. Zhang, N. Keenlyside, W. Chen, S.C. Kang, H.N. Cheung, D. X. Wang, C. Y. Li (2020) Weakened seasonal cycle of Arctic surface temperature with sea ice reduction, submitted to J. Climate
  • Nkwinkwa Njouodo, A. S. I., M. Rouault, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki (2020) Impact of the Agulhas current on southern Africa precipitation: a modelling study, submitted to J. Climate
  • Crespo, L., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Polo, N. Keenlyside, D. Dommenget, 2020, Multidecadal variability of ENSO in a recharge oscillator framework, submitted
  • Cheung, H. N., N. Keenlyside, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, T. Tian, Z. Xu, Y. Gao, F. Ogawa, N.-E. Omrani, S. Qiao, and W. Zhou, 2019: Projected Uncertainties in the Northern Winter Climate: Role of Interhemispheric Sea Surface Temperature Gradient and Arctic Sea Ice Cover. J. Clim., submitted.
  • Sarre, A., P. Brehmer, H. Demarcq, N. Keenlyside, and others, 2017: Spatial shift of small pelagic fish as early warning for food security in North-West Africa. submitted

􏰢􏰝Peer-reviewed

  1. Svendsen, L., N. Keenlyside, M. Muilijk, I. Bethke, N.-E. Omrani, Y. Gao (2020) Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature 1 trends in the Arctic2 during the twentieth century, Climate Dynamics, accepted
  2. Counillon, F., N. Keenlyside, T. Toniazzo, S. Koseki, T. Demissie, I. Bethke, Yiguo Wang (2021), Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic, Clim Dyn 56, 2617–2630
  3. Nnamchi, H. C., M. Latif, N. S. Keenlyside, J. Kjellsson, and I. Richter, 2019: Diabatic heating variability controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. Nat Commun 12, 376 
  4. Smith, D. M., ... N. Keenlyside ... (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583(7818), 796-800. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
  5. Pariyar, S. K., N. Keenlyside, A. Sorteberg, T. Spengler, B. Chandra Bhatt, and F. Ogawa, 2020: Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100262.
  6. Akinsanola, A. A., W. Zhou, T. Zhou, N. Keenlyside, 2020, Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 21.
  7. López-Parages, J., P.-A. Auger, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, N. Keenlyside, C. Gaetan, A. Rubino, M. Woldeyes Arisido, and T. Brochier, 2020: El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast. Progress in Oceanography, 186, 102341.
  8. Luo, H., F. Zheng, N. Keenlyside, and J. Zhu, 2020: Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 54, 4759-4773.
  9. Nnamchi, H. C., M. Latif, N. S. Keenlyside, and W. Park, (2020) A satellite era warming hole in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. JGRO, e2019JC015834.
  10. Yang, X.-Y., G. Wang, N. Keenlyside, (2020) The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability, The Cryosphere, 14, 693–708, 2020
  11. Schevenhoven, F., F. Selten, A. Carrassi, and N. Keenlyside (2019), Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10(4), 789-807, 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019.
  12. Kimmritz, M., F. Counillon, L. H. Smedsrud, I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, F. Ogawa, and Y. Wang (2019), Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10.1029/2019MS001825.
  13. Wohland, J., N. E. Omrani, N. Keenlyside, and D. Witthaut (2019), Significant multidecadal variability in German wind energy generation, Wind Energ. Sci., 4(3), 515-526, 10.5194/wes-4-515-2019.
  14. Wu, C.-R., Y.-F. Lin, Y.-L. Wang, N. Keenlyside, and J.-Y. Yu (2019), An Atlantic-driven rapid circulation change in the North Pacific Ocean during the late 1990s, Scientific Reports, 9(1), 14411, 10.1038/s41598-019-51076-1.
  15. Li, F., Y. J. Orsolini, N. Keenlyside, M. L. Shen, F. Counillon, and Y. G. Wang, 2019: Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 10033-10048
  16. Wang, Y., F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, L. Svendsen, S. Gleixner, M. Kimmritz, P. Dai, and Y. Gao 2019: Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF, Climate Dynamics, 53, 5777–5797
  17. Jia, F., W. Cai, L. Wu, B. Gan, G. Wang, F. Kucharski, P. Chang, and N. Keenlyside, 2019: Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming, Science Advances, 5(8), eaax4111, 10.1126/sciadv.aax4111.
  18. Pariyar, S, N. Keenlyside, B. Bhatt, N.-E. Omrani: The dominant patterns of intra-seasonal boreal summer and winter Tropical western Pacific rainfall variability, Monthly Weather Review, 147, 2941-2960
  19. Foltz, G. R., ....... N. Keenlyside ...... 2019: The Tropical Atlantic Observing System. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, 206.
  20. Voldoire, A., E. Exarchou, E. Sanchez-Gomez, T. Demissie, A.-L. Deppenmeier, C. Frauen, K. Goubanova, W. Hazeleger, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki, C. Prodhomme, J. Shonk, T. Toniazzo, A.-K. Traoré. 2019: Role of wind stress in driving SST biases in the Tropical Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., 53, 3481–3504
  21. Wohland, J., N.-E. Omrani, D. Witthaut, and N. S. Keenlyside 2019: Inconsistent wind speed trends in current 20th century reanalyses, JGR Atmos, 124
  22. Yan, Y., L. Svendsen, C. Wang, N. Keenlyside, Y. Qi, 2019: Did the global warming slowdown cause the north-south contrast of subsurface salinity anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific?, JGR Oceans,  124, 1795–1806
  23. Cai, W., ...., N. Keenlyside, et al., 2019: Pan-tropical climate interactions, Science, 363, eaav4236.
  24. Omrani, N.-E., F. Ogawa, H. Nakamura, N. Keenlyside, S. Lubis, K. Matthes, 2019: Key role of the Ocean Western Boundary Currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate, Scientific Reports, 9, 3014
  25. Crespo, L. R., N. Keenlyside, and S. Koseki, 2019: The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 52, 5927-5946.
  26. Koenigk, T., Y. Gao, G. Gastineau, N. Keenlyside, T. Nakamura, F. Ogawa, Y. Orsolini, V. Semenov, L. Suo, T. Tian, T. Wang, J. J. Wettstein, and S. Yang, 2019: Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas. Clim. Dyn., 52, 3111-3137 
  27. Årthun,  M., B. Bogstad, U. Daewel, N. S. Keenlyside, A. B. Sandø, C. Schrum, and G. Ottersen, 2018: Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PLOS ONE, 13, e0206319.
  28. Koseki, S., B. Pohl, B. C. Bhatt, N. Keenlyside, and A. S. Nkwinkwa Njouodo, 2018: Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 4339-4356
  29. Luo, F., S. Li, Y. Gao, L. Svendsen, T. Furevik, and N. Keenlyside, 2018: The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Industrial Revolution is intrinsic to the climate system. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 094020.
  30. Svendsen, L., N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, and Y. Gao, 2018: Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 793-797
  31. Nkwinkwa Njouodo, A. S., S. Koseki, N. Keenlyside, M. Rouault, Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current, GRL, 45, 5185-5193
  32. Lübbecke, J. F., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Richter, M. Martín-Rey, T. Losada, I. Polo, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2018: Equatorial Atlantic variability—Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9, e527.
  33. Årthun, M., E.W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N.S. Keenlyside, 2018, Time scales and sources of European temperature variability, GRL, 45, 3597-3604.
  34. Hand, R., N.S. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani, J. Bader, and R. J. Greatbatch, 2018: The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector. Clim Dyn., published online 
  35. Ogawa, F., N. Keenlyside, Y. Gao, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, L. Suo, T. Wang, G. Gastineau, T. Nakamura, H. N. Cheung, N.-E. Omrani, J. Ukita, and V. Semenov, 2018: Evaluating impacts of the Arctic sea-ice loss on the northern hemisphere climate changes, GRL, 45, 3255-3263.
  36. Tchipalanga, P.,  M. Dengler, P. Brandt, R. Kopte, M. Macuéria, P. Coelho, M. Ostrowski, N.S. Keenlyside, 2018: Eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola – building Angolan oceanographic capacities, BAMS, in press
  37. King, M. P., I. Herceg-Bulić, I. Bladé, J. García-Serrano, N. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, C. Li, S. Sobolowski, 2018: Importance of late fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro- Atlantic sector, BAMS, in press
  38. Collins, M., S. Minobe, M. Barreiro, S. Bordoni, Y. Kaspi, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Keenlyside, E. Manzini, C. H. O’Reilly, R. Sutton, S.-P. Xie, and O. Zolina, 2018: Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change, 8, 101-108.
  39. Luo, F., S. Li, Y. Gao, N. Keenlyside, L. Svendsen, T. Furevik, 2018: The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 models, Clim. Dyn., 1-17.
  40. Cheung, H. H. N., N. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani, and W. Zhou, 2018: Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate. Adv. Atm. Sci., 35, 38-51.
  41. King, M. P., I. Herceg-Bulić, F. Kucharski, and N. Keenlyside, 2018: Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1881-1899. 
  42. Shen, M.-L., N. Keenlyside, B. C. Bhatt, and G. S. Duane, 2017: Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27, 126704.
  43. Sillmann, J., T. Thorarinsdottir, N. Keenlyside, N. Schaller, L. V. Alexander, G. Hegerl, S. I. Seneviratne, R. Vautard, X. Zhang, and F. W. Zwiers, 2017: Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. WACE, 18, 65-74.
  44. Gleixner, S., N. S. Keenlyside, T. D. Demissie, F. Counillon, Y. Wang, and E. Viste, 2017: Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models. ERL, 12, 114016.
  45. Zanchettin, D., C. Gaetan, M. W. Arisido, K. Modali, T. Toniazzo, N. Keenlyside, and A. Rubino, 2017: Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports, 7, 12862.
  46. Nnamchi, H. C., F. Kucharski, N. S. Keenlyside, and R. Farneti, 2017: Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices. ASL, 18, 396-402.
  47. Koseki, S., N. Keenlyside, T. Demissie, T. Toniazzo, F. Counillon, I. Bethke, M. Ilicak, and M.-L. Shen, 2017: Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System ModelClim. Dyn., published online
  48. Tseng, W.-L., H.-H. Hsu, N. Keenlyside, C.-W. June Chang, B.-J. Tsuang, C.-Y. Tu, and L.-C. Jiang, 2017: Effects of Surface Orography and Land–Sea Contrast on the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent: A Numerical Study Using ECHAM5-SIT. J. Clim., 30, 9725-9741
  49. Richter, I., T. Doi, S. K. Behera, and N. Keenlyside, 2017: On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective. Climate Dynamics.
  50. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnson, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2017: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications, 8, 15875.
  51. Wang, Y., Counillon, F., I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, Marc Bocquet, and Mao-lin Shen, 2017: Optimising assimilation of hydrographic profiles into isopycnal ocean models with ensemble data assimilation, Oce. Mod., 114 33–44
  52. Gleixner, S., N. Keenlyside, E. Viste, and D. Korecha, 2017: The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall. Clim. Dyn., 49, 1865-1883.
  53. Cabos, W., D. V. Sein, J. G. Pinto, A. H. Fink, N. V. Koldunov, F. Alvarez, A. Izquierdo, N. Keenlyside, and D. Jacob, 2017: The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics, 48, 4051-4069.
  54. Counillon, F., N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, Y. Wang, S. Billeau, M.-L. Shen, and M. Bentsen 2016: Flow dependent assimilation of SST in isopycnal coordinate with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Tellus A, 68, 32437
  55. Mohino, E., N.Keenlyside, H.Pohlmann, 2016: Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack of) come from?, Clim. Dyn. 47 (11), 3593-3612
  56. Mechoso, C. R., T. Losada, S. Koseki, E. Mohino-Harris, N. Keenlyside, A. Castaño-Tierno, T. A. Myers, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, and T. Toniazzo, 2016: Can reducing the incoming energy flux over the Southern Ocean in a CGCM improve its simulation of tropical climate? Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 11,057-11,063.
  57. Reintges, A., T. Martin, M. Latif, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2016: Uncertainty in 21st Century Projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn., 1-17
  58. Dieppois, B., B. Pohl, M. Rouault, M. New, D. Lawler, and N. Keenlyside, 2016: Interannual to Interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections. JGR Atmos., 121, 6215-6239.
  59. Nnamchi, H. C., J. Li, F. Kucharski, I.-S. Kang, N. Keenlyside, P. Chang, and R. Farneti, 2016: An equatorial-extratropical dipole structure of the Atlantic Niño. J. Clim.29, 7295-7311.
  60. Shen, M.-L., N. Keenlyside, F. Selten, W. Wiegerinck, and G. S. Duane, 2016: Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific. GRL, 43, 359-366.
  61. Ogawa, F., N.-E. Omrani, K. Nishii, H. Nakamura, and N. Keenlyside, 2015: Ozone-induced climate change propped up by the Southern Hemisphere oceanic front. Geophys. Res. Lett, 42, 10,056-10,063.
  62. Nnamchi, H.C., J. Li,, F. Kucharski, I.-S. Kang , N.S. Keenlyside, P. Chang and R.Farneti, Thermodynamic Controls of the Atlantic Niño, Nat. Comm. 6:8895 
  63. Mecking, J., N.S. Keenlyside, R.J. Greatbatch, Multiple Timescales of Stochastically Forced North Atlantic Ocean Variability: A model study, Oce. Dyn., 1-15
  64. Chang, C.-W. J., W.-L. Tseng, H.-H. Hsu, N. Keenlyside, and B.-J. Tsuang, 2015: The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world. GRL, 42, 6034-6042.
  65. Omrani, N. E., J. Bader, N. S. Keenlyside, and E. Manzini, 2016: Troposphere–stratosphere response to large-scale North Atlantic Ocean variability in an atmosphere/ocean coupled model. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1397-1415.
  66. King, M. P., M. Hell, and N. Keenlyside, 2016: Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1185-1195.
  67. Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, W. Park, and S. Wahl, 2015: The Impact of Mean State Errors on the Simulated Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability. JGR Oceans, 120, 1133-1151
  68. Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, N. Bellouin, B. Booth, C. Cagnazzo, B. v. d. Hurk, N. Keenlyside, T. Koenigk, F. Massonnet, S. Materia, and M. Weiss, 2015: Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of non-oceanic drivers. Rev. of Geophy., 53, 165–202
  69. Gao, Y., J. Sun, F. Li, S. He, S. Sandven, Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, K. Lohmann, N. Keenlyside, T. Furevik, and L. Suo, 2015: Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Adv. Atm. Sci., 32, 92-114.
  70. Tseng, W.-L., B.-J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H.-H. Hsu, and C.-Y. Tu, 2015: Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 44, 1487-1503.
  71. Svendsen, L., S. Hetzinger, N. S. Keenlyside, and Y. Gao, 2014: Marine-based multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic multi-decadal variabilityGRL, 41, 2013GL059076.
  72. Counillon, F., I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino, and F. Zheng, 2014: Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM: a twin experimentTellus A, 66, 21074
  73. Ba, J., N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, W. Park, H. Ding, K. Lohmann, J. Mignot, M. Menary, O. Otterå, B. Wouters, D. Salas y Melia, A. Oka, A. Bellucci, and E. Volodin, 2014: A multi-model comparison for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim. Dyn., 1-16
  74. Mecking, J.V., N.S. Keenlyside, and R.J. Greatbatch 2014: Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: A model study, Clim. Dyn., 1-18
  75. Gleixner, S., N. Keenlyside, K. Hodges, W.-L. Tseng and L. Bengtsson 2014: An inter-hemispheric comparison of the Tropical Storm response to global warmingClim. Dyn., 42, 2147-2157
  76. Svendsen, L., N.G. Kvamstø, and N.S. Keenlyside, 2014: Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. Clim. Dyn., 1-11
  77. Omrani, N.-E., N. S. Keenlyside, J. Bader and E. Manzini, 2014: Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditionsClim. Dyn., 42:649–663
  78. Gulev, S.K., M. Latif, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, and K. P. Koltermann, 2013: North Atlantic Ocean Control on Surface Heat Flux at Multidecadal Timescales, Nature, 499, 464-467
  79. Keenlyside, N., H. Ding, and M. Latif, 2013: Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño PredictionGRL, 40, 2278-2283.
  80. Hand, R., N. S. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani and M. Latif, 2013: Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region, Clim. Dyn., 1-17
  81. Pohlmann, H., D. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, and P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim. Dyn., 41, 775-785
  82. Ba, J., N. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, E. Hawkins, and H. Ding, 2013: A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2133-2144
  83. Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif (2012), Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern OscillationClim. Dyn.38(9), 1965-1972.
  84. Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N. Keenlyside, V. Semenov, and T. Martin 2012: Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments, Clim. Dyn.38(9), 1757-1773
  85. Hetzinger, S., J. Halfar, J. V. Mecking, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Kronz, R. S. Steneck, W. H. Adey, and P. A. Lebednik 2012: Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climateClim. Dyn.39, 1447-1455
  86. Champion, A. J., K. I. Hodges, L. O. Bengtsson, N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Esch, 2011: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Tellus, 63, 893-906.
  87. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, S. Koumoutsaris, M. Zahn, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: The changing atmospheric water cycle in Polar Regions in a warmer climate. Tellus, 63, 907-920.
  88. Bader, J., M. D. S. Mesquita, K. I. Hodges, N. Keenlyside, S. Østerhus, and M. Miles, 2011: A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes. Atmos. Res., 101, 809-834.
  89. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2011: A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability. Deep Sea Research, 58, 1880-1894.
  90. Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Clim. Dyn., 1-15.
  91. Tozuka, T., T. Doi, T. Miyasaka, N. Keenlyside, and T. Yamagata, 2011: Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal sea surface temperature gradient in a coupled general circulation model. JGR Oce., 116.
  92. Wahl, S., M. Latif, W. Park, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate ModelClim. Dyn., 36, 891-906
  93. Keenlyside, N. S., and J. Ba, 2010: Prospects for decadal climate prediction, WIRES, 1, 627-635
  94. Semenov, V. A., M. Latif, D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Strehz, T. Martin, and W. Park, 2010: The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature. J. Clim., 23, 5668-5677.
  95. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2010: Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability: the role of heat content, JGR Oce., 115, C09020
  96. Lübbecke, J. F., C. W. Böning, N. S. Keenlyside, and S.-P. Xie, 2010: On the connection between Benguela and Equatorial Atlantic Niños and the role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone, JGR Oce., 115, C09015
  97. Lan, Y. Y., B. J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, S. L. Wang, C. T. A. Chen, B.J. Wang, and T.H Liu, 2010: Error estimations of dry deposition velocities of air pollutants using bulk sea surface temperature under common assumptions. Atm. Env., 44, 2532-2542
  98. Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel, 2009: ENSEMBLES - a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, GRL, 36, L21711
  99. Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, & T. Stockdale, 2009: Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 1467-1485
  100. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith, T. N. Palmer, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts, QJRMS, 135, 1538 - 1559
  101. Latif, M., W. Park, H. Ding, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Internal and External North Atlantic Sector Variability in the Kiel Climate Model, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, 433-443
  102. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif 2009: Seasonal cycle in the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean, JGR., 114, C09016, doi:10.1029/2009JC005418
  103. Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2009: Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A Multimodel comparison. Clim. Dyn., DOI  - 10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2
  104. Zhou, T., R. Yu, J. Zhang, H. Drange, C. Cassou, C. Deser, D. L. R. Hodson, E. Sanchez-Gomez , J. Li, N. Keenlyside, X. Xin, Y. Okumura, 2009: Why the Western Pacific Subtropical High has Extended Westward since the Late 1970s?, J. Clim., 22, 2199–2215
  105. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Will extra-tropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301
  106. Jansen, M. F., D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside,2009: Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework, J. Clim., 22, 550–567
  107. Park, W., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Stroeh, R. Redler, E. Roeckner, G. Madec, 2009: Tropical Pacific Climate and its Response to Global Warming in the Kiel Climate Model, J. Clim., 22 (1), 71-92
  108. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2009: El Niño/Southern Oscillation Response to Global Warming, PNAS, 20578-20583
  109. Sanchez-Gomez, E., C. Cassou, D. L. R. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okmura, and T. Zhou, 2008: Multi-model signature of the Indian and Western Pacific oceans warming in the occurrence of the North Atlantic weather regimes, GRL., 35, L15706
  110. Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88
  111. Matei, D., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Jungclaus, 2008: Subtropical Forcing of Tropical Pacific Climate and Decadal ENSO Modulation. J. Climate, 21, 4691-4709
  112. Hetzinger, S., M. Pfeiffer, W.-C. Dullo, N.S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Zinke, 2008: Caribbean Brain Coral Tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Past Hurricane Intensity. Geology, 36, 11-14
  113. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. S. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may Tropical Cyclones Change in a Warmer Climate? Tellus, 59A, 539-561
  114. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, A. Dürkop, 2007: On Sub-ENSO variability. J. Clim., 20, 3452–3469
  115. Latif, M., N. Keenlyside, and J. Bader, 2007: Tropical Sea Surface Temperature, Vertical Wind Shear, and Hurricane Development, GRL, 34, L01710
  116. Keenlyside, N., and M. Latif, 2007: Understanding Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability, J. Clim., 20, 131-142
  117. Latif, M. M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A Review of Predictability Studies of Atlantic Sector Climate on Decadal Time Scales, J. Clim., 19, 5971–5987
  118. Latif, M., C. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, J. Dengg, N. Keenlyside, and U. Schweckendiek, G. Madec, 2006: Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?, J. Clim., 19, 4631-4637
  119. Jungclaus, J. H., N. Keenlyside, M. Botzet, H. Haak, J.-J. Luo, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, U. Mikolajewicz, and E. Roeckner, 2006: Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Clim., 19, 3952-3972
  120. Wetzel, P., E. Maier-Reimer, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2006: Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model, J. Clim., 19, 3973-3987
  121. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2005: Retrospective El Niño hindcasts/forecasts using an improved intermediate coupled model, Mon. Weath. Rev., 133, 2777-2802
  122. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, and U. Schulzweida, 2005:A coupled method for initialising ENSO forecasts using SST, Tellus, 57A, 340-356
  123. Zhang, R.-H., R. Kleeman, S. E. Zebiak, N. Keenlyside, and S. Raynaud, 2005: An empirical parameterization of subsurface entrainment temperature for improved SST anomaly simulations in an intermediate ocean model, J. Clim., 18(2), 350-371
  124. Palmer, T.N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Délécluse, M. Déqué, E. Díez, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J.-F. Guérémy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A. P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J.-M. Terres and M. C. Thomson, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), BAMS, 85(6), 853-872
  125. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2003: A new intermediate coupled model for El Niño simulation and prediction, GRL, 30, 2012, doi:10.1029/2003GL018010
  126. Keenlyside, N., and R. Kleeman, 2002: Annual cycle of equatorial zonal currents in the Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (8), 10.1029/2000JC000711
  127. Arif, I., I. A. Newman, and N. Keenlyside, 1995: Theoretical paper: Proton flux measurements from tissues in buffered solution, Plant, Cell and Environment, 18,1319-1324 

Book chapters (peer reviewed)

Non-peer-reviewed publications

  • Ogawa, F. N.-E. Omrani, H. Nakamura, K. Nishii, N. Keenlyside, 2017: Impact of Oceanic Front on the Tropospheric Climatic Trend Induced by Ozone Depletion, CLIVAR Exchanges, 71, 37-42
  • Keenlyside, N. and D. Dommenget, 2016: The Fingerprint of Global Warming in the Tropical Pacific. Adv. Atmos. Sci., 33, 533-534.
  • Peings, Y., G. Magnusdottir, N.-E. Omrani, and N. Keenlyside, 2014, Can high latitude boundary forcings (ocean-ice-snow) improve predictability on seasonal and decadal time scales? Clivar Variations Newsletter, 12 (3), 18-23
  • Keenlyside, N. and N.-E. Omrani, 2014: Has a warm North Atlantic contributed to recent European cold winters? Environmental Research Letters, 9, 061001.
  • Keenlyside, N. S., 2011: Commentary on "Validation and forecasting accuracy in models of climate change". International Journal of Forecasting, 27, 1000-1003.
  • Murphy, J., V. Kattsov, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, J. Meehl, V. Mehta, H. Pohlmann, A. Scaife, D. Smith, 2009: Towards Prediction of Decadal Climate Variability and Change, White paper for World Climate Conference - 3
  • Hurrell, J., T. Delworth, G. Danabasoglu, H. Drange, S. Griffies, N. Holbrook, B. Kirtman, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, G. Meehl, T. Palmer, H. Pohlmann, T. Rosati, R. Seager, D. Smith, R. Sutton, A. Timmermann, K. Trenberth, and J.Tribbia, 2009, Decadal Climate Prediction: Opportunities and Challenges, Community White Papers for OceanObs'09
  • Latif, M., T. Delworth, D. Dommenget, H. Drange, W. Hazeleger, J. Hurrell, N. Keenlyside, G. Meehl, and R. Sutton, 2009: Dynamics of Decadal Climate Variability and Implications for its Prediction, Community White Papers for OceanObs'09
  • N. Keenlyside, 2009: Clean air policy and Arctic warming, Nature Geosciences (News & Views), 2, 243 - 244
  • N. Keenlyside, N. Omrani, K. Krüger, M. Latif and A. Scaife, 2008: Decadal predictability: How might the stratosphere be involved? SPARC Newsletter 31, 23-27
  • Latif, M. M. Collins, R. J. Stouffer, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2004: The physical basis for prediction of Atlantic sector climate on decadal timescales, CLIVAR Exchanges 9, 6-8

Current

2020-2028, RCN SFI Climate Futures

2019-2023, EU H2020, South and Tropical Atlantic Climate-Based Marine Ecosystem Prediction for Sustainable Management (TRIATLAS)

2018-2023, Trond Mohn Foundation, Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit (BCPU)

2015-2021, ERC Consolidator Grant, Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate prediction (STERCP)

2016-2020, NordForsk, Arctic Climate Predictions - Pathways to Resilient, Sustainable Societies (ARCPATH)

2016-2021, EU H2020, Blue-Action: Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate

2020-2023, JPI Climate JPI Oceans, The Role of Ocean Dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in Driving Climate Variations and Future Projections of Impact-Relevant Extreme Events (ROADMAP)

2020-2023, JPI Climate JPI Oceans, Improving the representation of small-scale nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interactions in Climate Models by an innovative joint observing and modelling approaches (EUREC4AOA)

2020-2023, Belmont Forum, Rapid Arctic environmental Changes: implications for well-being, resilience and Evolution of Arctic communities (RACE)

Previous (selected)

2016-2019, JPI Climate, The potential of seasonal-to-decadal-scale inter-regional linkages to advance climate predictions

2014-2016 NordForsk TRI, Impact of Future Cryospheric Changes on Northern Hemisphere. Climate, Green Growth and Society (GREENICE)

2013-2017 NFR, Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)

2014-2017 EU FP7, Enhancing prediction of Tropical Atlantic climate and its impacts (PREFACE)

2008-2013 Emmy Noether research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG): "Mechanisms and predictability of North Atlantic Decadal Climate variability"

 

How predictable is climate? Answering this question is my long-term research goal and that of my research group—Climate Dynamics and Predictability Laboratory

About me

I am a climate researcher with a broad range of interests that extend from climate dynamics to understand the impacts of climate on marine ecosystems, and to the development of climate services. I received a PhD in meteorology from Monash University in 2020. I am a professor in Tropical Meteorology at the University of Bergen since 2011. Prior to this I worked in German at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (2001-2003) and at GEOMAR (2003-2011). I have received prestigious the German Research Foundation (DFG) Emmy Noether Award, the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant, and a Mega-grant of the Government of the Russian Federation. I am currently co-chair of the WCRP CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel and Research Foci Tropical Basin Interactions. I have led major national and international projects, including from the European Union, NordForsk, Resarch Council of Norway, and the Trond Mohn Foundation.

My research focuses on the role of the ocean in climate system, with studies on ocean-atmosphere interaction in all of the ocean basins and from diurnal to centennial timescales. To gain a deeper understanding of climate dynamics I combine numerical models (conceptual to full complexity Earth System Models) and observations, using advanced statistical analysis and novel experimental designs. Among my key achievements is to be the first to show that North Atlantic climate could be predicted on decadal timescales (Keenlyside et al., Nature, 2008), a result that helped initiate the field of near-term climate prediction. I have led the development of the Norwegian Prediction model and of novel approaches to reduce model systematic error (i.e., supermodelling). I have a great interest in interdisciplinary research, and have collaborated with ecologists, social anthropologists, climate historians, political scientists and economists. I have also played a leading role in the development of applied research in the field of climate services (e.g., SFI Climate Futures). 

My group

My research group is mainly supported by external funding (projects indicated in brackets) 

PhD students

  • Ashneel Chandra (UiB, Mare Nulius)
  • Lilian Carolina Garcia Oliva (UiB/NERSC, BCPU)
  • Edson Silva (NERSC)

Master students

  • Martin Pecnjak

Postdoctoral Scientists

  • Fei Li (Nansen Legacy)
  • Vandhna Kumar (Mare Nulius)
  • Francine (UiB, STERCP)

Researchers 

  • Sebastien Barthelemy (Blue-Action, ARCPATH)
  • Ingo Bethke (BCPU, Climate Futures)
  • Lina Boljka (BCPU)
  • Hai Bui (STERCP)
  • Lander Crespo (TRIATLAS)
  • Gregory Duane (STERCP)
  • Martin King (BCPU, Blue-Action)
  • Shunya Koseki (STERCP, TRIATLAS)
  • Nour-Eddine Omrani (BCPU)
  • Mao-Lin Shen (STERCP)
  • Sunil Praiyar (Blue-Action, ARCPATH)
  • Lea Svendsen (BCPU)
  • Dandan Tao (Climate Futures)
  • Shuo Wang (STERCP)

Support staff

  • Ping-Gin Chui, software engineer (INES, BCPU, Climate-Futures)
  • Mahaut de Vareilles, project manager (BCPU)
  • Nilgun Kulan, project manager (BCPU)

Research groups