• E-mailNoel.Keenlyside@uib.no
  • Phone+47 55 58 20 32
  • Visitor Address
    Jahnebakken 3
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7803
    5020 Bergen


New CLIVAR Exchanges Special Issue on Tropical Atlantic Ocean Observing System (TAOS)

Current research interest

  • Decadal variability and predictability of climate
  • Tropical interannual climate variability and predictability
  • Extra-tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction
  • Super climate modelling
  • Climate-based predictions of marine ecosystems

Master projects

I can offer the following potential master thesis topics:

  • Why is the ITCZ North of the Equator? (Noel Keenlyside, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø)
  • Variability and predictability of the Atlantic Niño (Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki)
  • Atlantic decadal variability and prediction (Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon) 
  • Climate Services (Noel Keenlyside)

You can read more information here, or please contact me by email.

Five recent publications

  1. Schevenhoven, F., N. Keenlyside, .... (2023), Supermodeling: improving predictions with an ensemble of interacting models, BAMS, E1670–E1686
  2. Koseki, S., J. Tjiputra, F. Fransner, L. R. Crespo, and N. S. Keenlyside (2023), Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux, Nature Communications, 14(1), 3649, 10.1038/s41467-023-38718-9.
  3. Fransner, F., A. Olsen, M. Årthun, F. Counillon, J. Tjiputra, A. Samuelsen, and N. Keenlyside, 2023: Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 141.
  4. Nnamchi, H. C., R. Farneti, N. S. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, M. Latif, A. Reintges, and T. Martin, 2023: Pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation linked to ocean circulation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 121
  5. Crespo, L. R., A. Prigent, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki, L. Svendsen, I. Richter, and E. Sánchez-Gómez (2022), Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y

Book chapters

Master projects

I can offer the following potential master thesis topics:

  • The Indian summer monsoon in the Norwegian earth system model (Lea Svendsen, Noel Keenlyside)
  • Why is the ITCZ North of the Equator? (Noel Keenlyside, Nils Gunnar Kvamstø)
  • Variability and predictability of the Atlantic Niño (Noel Keenlyside, Shunya Koseki)
  • Atlantic decadal variability and prediction (Noel Keenlyside, Francois Counillon) 
  • Marine heatwaves, their predictability and implications to Norwegian fishery (Jana Sillman (CICERO), Noel Keenlyside)
  • Hemispheric atmospheric wave resonance and the effect on Nordic energy production (Noel Keenlyside, Tarjei Breiteig (Agder Energi))

You can read more information here, or please contact me by email.


GEOF348: Advanced Climate Dynamics


GEOF327: The General Circulation of the Atmosphere

GEOF212Physical Climatology

Google user profile

Researcher ID

Submitted manuscripts

  • Cai, W., .... , N.S. Keenlyside, ..... (2024), Impact of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on African climate, submitted
  • Drews, A., T. Schmith, T. Tian, Y. Wang, M. Devilliers, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Yang, S. M. Olsen (2024) The Crucial Role of the Subpolar North Atlantic for Skillful Decadal Climate Predictions, submitted to GRL
  • Tian, F., N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, P. Fernández, S. Koseki, F. Li (2024) Resolution-Dependent Sensitivity of Tropical Precipitation and Latent Heat Flux in the NorESM Model, submitted to JAMES
  • Tomety, F. S., S. Illig, M. Ostrowski, F. M. Awo, M.-L. Bachèlery, N. Keenlyside, and M. Rouault (2024), Long-term climatological trends driving the recent 1 warming along the Angolan and Namibian coasts, submitted
  • Koseki, S., L. R. Crespo, J. Tjiputra, F. Fransner, N. S. Keenlyside, and D. Rivas (2023) Research articleAssessing the tropical Atlantic biogeochemical processes in the Norwegian Earth System Model, submitted
  • Rodriguez-Fonseca, B., ... N. Keenlyside, ... (2024) ENSO Impact on marine ecosystems and fisheries in the tropical and South Atlantic, NREE, submitted
  • Semenov, V., T. A. Aldonina, F. Li, N. S. Keenlyside, and L. Wang (2023) Arctic sea ice variations in the first half of the 20th century: a new reconstruction based on hydrometeorological data, AAS, submitted
  • Imbol Koungue, R., P. Brandt, A. Prigent, L. Costa Aroucha, J. Lübbecke; A. S. N. Imbol Nkwinkwa, M. Dengler, N. Keenlyside (2023) Drivers and impact of the 2021 extreme warm event in the tropical Angolan upwelling system, submitted
  • Nair, A, F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, A Global Land Reanalysis System with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model: NorCPM-Land, submitted
  • Omrani, N.-E., S. W. Lubis, N. Keenlyside, F. Ogawa (2022) Response of Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar night jet to climate change: key role of tropical Ocean and diffusive mixing, submitted
  • Rodrıguez-Fonseca, B., I. Polo, E. Mohino, T. Losada, M. Martın-Rey, C.R. Mechoso,  N. Keenlyside (2021) Multidecadal Modulation of Tropical Atlantic Impacts on ENSO, submitted
  • Crespo, L. R., S. Koseki, N. Keenlyside and Y.-C. He (2021). Thermodynamic ocean-atmosphere interactions control the equatorial Atlantic seasonal cycle, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science: submitted.


  1. Sarre, A., P. Brehmer, H. Demarcq, N. Keenlyside, and others, 2024: Spatial shift of small pelagic fish as early warning for food security in North-West Africa. accepted
  2. Garcia-Oliva, L., F. Counillon, I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside (2024) Intercomparison of initialization methods for Seasonal-to-Decadal Climate Predictions with the NorCPM, accepted
  3. Steenbeek, J ..... N. Keenlyside, (2024) Making ecosystem modelling operational - a novel distributed execution framework to systematically explore ecological responses to divergent climate trajectories, Earth's Future, 12, e2023EF004295. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF004295
  4. Ogilvie, A., L. King, N. Keenlyside, .... (2024), Recent Ventures in Interdisciplinary Arctic Research: The ARCPATH Project. Adv. Atmos. Sci. (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3333-x
  5. Wu, J., H. Fan, S. Lin, W. Zhong, S. He, N. Keenlyside, and S. Yang, (2024) Boosting effect of strong western pole of the Indian Ocean Dipole on the decay of El Niño events, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 7, 6, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-023-00554-5 
  6. Chandra, A., N. Keenlyside, L. Svendsen, A. Singh (2024), Processes driving subseasonal variations of upper Ocean Heat Content in the equatorial Indian Ocean, Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, 129, e2023JC020074. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JC020074
  7. Paolini, L. F., N.-E. Omrani, A. Bellucci, P. J. Athanasiadis, P. Ruggieri, C. R. Patrizio, N. Keenlyside (2024) Non-stationarity in the NAO–Gulf Stream SST front interaction, 37, 1629–1650, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0476.1
  8. Zheng, Y., N. Keenlyside, S. Li, S. He, and L. Suo (2024), Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir based on Treble-Nested dynamical downscaling. Adv. Atmos. Sci., https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-023-3118-2
  9. Boljka, L., N. E. Omrani, and N. S. Keenlyside (2023), Identifying quasi-periodic variability using multivariate empirical mode decomposition: a case of the tropical Pacific. Weather Clim. Dynam., 4, 1087-1109.
  10. Schevenhoven, F., N. Keenlyside, .... (2023), Supermodeling: improving predictions with an ensemble of interacting models, BAMS, E1670–E1686
  11. Rivas, D., F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside (2023), On dynamical downscaling of ENSO-induced oceanic anomalies off Baja California Peninsula, Mexico: Role of the air-sea heat flux, Front. Mar. Sci., 10, 10.3389/fmars.2023.1179649
  12. Tseng, W.-L., Y.-C. Lee, Y.-C. Wang, H.-H. Hsu, and N. Keenlyside (2023), Characterizing Atlantic interhemispheric teleconnection established by South American monsoon in austral summer, Environmental Research Letters, 18(7), 074003, 10.1088/1748-9326/acdbdf.
  13. O'kane, T., ..... N. Keenlyside, ...... 2023: Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions, Front. Clim., 5, 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
  14. Cheung, H.-N., N.-E. Omrani, F. Ogawa, N. Keenlyside, H. Nakamura, and W. Zhou (2023), Pacific oceanic front amplifies the impact of Atlantic oceanic front on North Atlantic blocking, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 6(1), 61, 10.1038/s41612-023-00370-x
  15. Koseki, S., J. Tjiputra, F. Fransner, L. R. Crespo, and N. S. Keenlyside (2023), Disentangling the impact of Atlantic Niño on sea-air CO2 flux, Nature Communications, 14(1), 3649, 10.1038/s41467-023-38718-9.
  16. Fransner, F., A. Olsen, M. Årthun, F. Counillon, J. Tjiputra, A. Samuelsen, and N. Keenlyside, 2023: Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 141.
  17. Nnamchi, H. C., R. Farneti, N. S. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, M. Latif, A. Reintges, and T. Martin, 2023: Pan-Atlantic decadal climate oscillation linked to ocean circulation. Communications Earth & Environment, 4, 121
  18. Counillon, F., N. Keenlyside, S. Wang, M. Devilliers, A. Gupta, S. Koseki, and M.-L. Shen, 2023: Framework for an Ocean-Connected Supermodel of the Earth System. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 15, e2022MS003310.
  19. King, M. P., N. Keenlyside, and C. Li, 2023: ENSO teleconnections in terms of non-NAO and NAO atmospheric variability. Climate Dynamics.
  20. Shin, S.-J., S.-W. Yeh, S.-I. An, N. Keenlyside, S.-P. Xie, and J.-H. Park (2023), Southern Ocean Control of 2°C Global Warming in Climate Models, Earth's Future, 11(1), e2022EF003212, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003212.
  21. Crespo, L. R., A. Prigent, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki, L. Svendsen, I. Richter, and E. Sánchez-Gómez (2022), Weakening of the Atlantic Niño variability under global warming, Nat. Clim. Change, 10.1038/s41558-022-01453-y
  22. Athanasiadis, P. J., .... N. Keenlyside, .... et al. (2022), Mitigating climate biases in the mid-latitude North Atlantic by increasing model resolution: SST gradients and their relation to blocking and the jet. J. Climate, 1-61.
  23. Pariyar, S. K., N. Keenlyside, W.-L. Tseng, H.-H. Hsu, and B.-J. Tsuang (2022), The role of air–sea coupling on November–April intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06354-6
  24. Crespo, L., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Polo, N. Keenlyside, D. Dommenget (2022), Multidecadal variability of ENSO in a recharge oscillator framework, ERL, 17(7), 074008.
  25. Omrani, N.-E., N. Keenlyside, K. Matthes, L. Boljka, D. Zanchettin, J. H. Jungclaus, and S. W. Lubis (2022), Coupled stratosphere-troposphere-Atlantic multidecadal oscillation and its importance for near-future climate projection, npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 5(1), 59, 10.1038/s41612-022-00275-1.
  26. Payne, M. R., G. Danabasoglu, N. Keenlyside, D. Matei, A. K. Miesner, S. Yang, and S. G. Yeager (2022), Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts, Nature Communications, 13(1), 2660, 10.1038/s41467-022-30280-0
  27. Hermanson, L, ..... Keenlyside, N., (2022), WMO Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update: A prediction for 2021-2025, BAMS, 103(4), E1117-E1129, 10.1175/BAMS-D-20-0311.1.
  28. Cheung, HN., Keenlyside, N., Koenigk, T. et al. (2022), Assessing the influence of sea surface temperature and arctic sea ice cover on the uncertainty in the boreal winter future climate projections, Climate Dynamics, 10.1007/s00382-022-06136-0
  29. Langehaug, H. R., Ortega, P., Counillon, F., Matei, D., Maroon, E., Keenlyside, N., Mignot, J., Wang, Y., Swingedouw, D., Bethke, I., Yang, S., Danabasoglu, G., Bellucci, A., Ruggieri, P., Nicolì, D., & Årthun, M. (2022). Propagation of Thermohaline Anomalies and their predictive potential along the Atlantic water pathway, J. Climate, 2111–2131, https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-1007.1
  30. Bethke, I., Y. Wang, F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimmritz, F. Fransner, A. Samuelsen, H. Langehaug, L. Svendsen, P. G. Chiu, L. Passos, M. Bentsen, C. Guo, A. Gupta, J. Tjiputra, A. Kirkevåg, D. Olivié, Ø. Seland, J. Solsvik Vågane, Y. Fan and T. Eldevik (2021). NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP. Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss. 2021: 1-84.
  31. Silva, E., F. Counillon, J. Brajard, A. Korosova, L. Pettersson, A. Samuelsen, N. Keenlyside, 2021: Twenty-one years of phytoplankton bloom phenology in the Barents, Norwegian and North seas, Frontiers in Marine Science, 8(1626), 10.3389/fmars.2021.746327.
  32. Nkwinkwa Njouodo, A. S. I., M. Rouault, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki (2020) Impact of the Agulhas current on southern Africa precipitation: a modelling study, J. Climate, 1-50. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0627.1
  33. Svendsen, L., N. Keenlyside, M. Muilwijk, I. Bethke, N.-E. Omrani, and Y. Gao (2021), Pacific contribution to decadal surface temperature trends in the Arctic during the twentieth century, Climate Dynamics, 57(11), 3223-3243, 10.1007/s00382-021-05868-9
  34. Counillon, F., N. Keenlyside, T. Toniazzo, S. Koseki, T. Demissie, I. Bethke, Yiguo Wang (2021), Relating model bias and prediction skill in the equatorial Atlantic, Clim Dyn 56, 2617–2630
  35. Nnamchi, H. C., M. Latif, N. S. Keenlyside, J. Kjellsson, and I. Richter (2021): Diabatic heating variability controls the seasonality of the Atlantic Niño. Nat Commun 12, 376 
  36. Smith, D. M., ... N. Keenlyside ... (2020). North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply. Nature, 583(7818), 796-800. doi:10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0
  37. Pariyar, S. K., N. Keenlyside, A. Sorteberg, T. Spengler, B. Chandra Bhatt, and F. Ogawa, 2020: Factors affecting extreme rainfall events in the South Pacific. Weather and Climate Extremes, 29, 100262.
  38. Akinsanola, A. A., W. Zhou, T. Zhou, N. Keenlyside, 2020, Amplification of synoptic to annual variability of West African summer monsoon rainfall under global warming. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, 3, 21.
  39. López-Parages, J., P.-A. Auger, B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, N. Keenlyside, C. Gaetan, A. Rubino, M. Woldeyes Arisido, and T. Brochier, 2020: El Niño as a predictor of round sardinella distribution along the northwest African coast. Progress in Oceanography, 186, 102341.
  40. Luo, H., F. Zheng, N. Keenlyside, and J. Zhu, 2020: Ocean–atmosphere coupled Pacific Decadal variability simulated by a climate model. Climate Dynamics, 54, 4759-4773.
  41. Nnamchi, H. C., M. Latif, N. S. Keenlyside, and W. Park, (2020) A satellite era warming hole in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean. JGRO, e2019JC015834.
  42. Yang, X.-Y., G. Wang, N. Keenlyside, (2020) The Arctic sea ice extent change connected to Pacific decadal variability, The Cryosphere, 14, 693–708, 2020
  43. Schevenhoven, F., F. Selten, A. Carrassi, and N. Keenlyside (2019), Improving weather and climate predictions by training of supermodels, Earth Syst. Dynam., 10(4), 789-807, 10.5194/esd-10-789-2019.
  44. Kimmritz, M., F. Counillon, L. H. Smedsrud, I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, F. Ogawa, and Y. Wang (2019), Impact of ocean and sea ice initialisation on seasonal prediction skill in the Arctic, Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, 10.1029/2019MS001825.
  45. Wohland, J., N. E. Omrani, N. Keenlyside, and D. Witthaut (2019), Significant multidecadal variability in German wind energy generation, Wind Energ. Sci., 4(3), 515-526, 10.5194/wes-4-515-2019.
  46. Wu, C.-R., Y.-F. Lin, Y.-L. Wang, N. Keenlyside, and J.-Y. Yu (2019), An Atlantic-driven rapid circulation change in the North Pacific Ocean during the late 1990s, Scientific Reports, 9(1), 14411, 10.1038/s41598-019-51076-1.
  47. Li, F., Y. J. Orsolini, N. Keenlyside, M. L. Shen, F. Counillon, and Y. G. Wang, 2019: Impact of Snow Initialization in Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Winter Forecasts With the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 124, 10033-10048
  48. Wang, Y., F. Counillon, N. Keenlyside, L. Svendsen, S. Gleixner, M. Kimmritz, P. Dai, and Y. Gao 2019: Seasonal predictions initialised by assimilating sea surface temperature observations with the EnKF, Climate Dynamics, 53, 5777–5797
  49. Jia, F., W. Cai, L. Wu, B. Gan, G. Wang, F. Kucharski, P. Chang, and N. Keenlyside, 2019: Weakening Atlantic Niño-Pacific connection under greenhouse warming, Science Advances, 5(8), eaax4111, 10.1126/sciadv.aax4111.
  50. Pariyar, S, N. Keenlyside, B. Bhatt, N.-E. Omrani: The dominant patterns of intra-seasonal boreal summer and winter Tropical western Pacific rainfall variability, Monthly Weather Review, 147, 2941-2960
  51. Foltz, G. R., ....... N. Keenlyside ...... 2019: The Tropical Atlantic Observing System. Frontiers in Marine Science, 6, 206.
  52. Voldoire, A., E. Exarchou, E. Sanchez-Gomez, T. Demissie, A.-L. Deppenmeier, C. Frauen, K. Goubanova, W. Hazeleger, N. Keenlyside, S. Koseki, C. Prodhomme, J. Shonk, T. Toniazzo, A.-K. Traoré. 2019: Role of wind stress in driving SST biases in the Tropical Atlantic. Clim. Dyn., 53, 3481–3504
  53. Wohland, J., N.-E. Omrani, D. Witthaut, and N. S. Keenlyside 2019: Inconsistent wind speed trends in current 20th century reanalyses, JGR Atmos, 124
  54. Yan, Y., L. Svendsen, C. Wang, N. Keenlyside, Y. Qi, 2019: Did the global warming slowdown cause the north-south contrast of subsurface salinity anomalies in the Northwestern Pacific?, JGR Oceans,  124, 1795–1806
  55. Cai, W., ...., N. Keenlyside, et al., 2019: Pan-tropical climate interactions, Science, 363, eaav4236.
  56. Omrani, N.-E., F. Ogawa, H. Nakamura, N. Keenlyside, S. Lubis, K. Matthes, 2019: Key role of the Ocean Western Boundary Currents in shaping the Northern Hemisphere climate, Scientific Reports, 9, 3014
  57. Crespo, L. R., N. Keenlyside, and S. Koseki, 2019: The role of sea surface temperature in the atmospheric seasonal cycle of the equatorial Atlantic. Climate Dynamics, 52, 5927-5946.
  58. Koenigk, T., Y. Gao, G. Gastineau, N. Keenlyside, T. Nakamura, F. Ogawa, Y. Orsolini, V. Semenov, L. Suo, T. Tian, T. Wang, J. J. Wettstein, and S. Yang, 2019: Impact of Arctic sea ice variations on winter temperature anomalies in northern hemispheric land areas. Clim. Dyn., 52, 3111-3137 
  59. Årthun,  M., B. Bogstad, U. Daewel, N. S. Keenlyside, A. B. Sandø, C. Schrum, and G. Ottersen, 2018: Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock. PLOS ONE, 13, e0206319.
  60. Koseki, S., B. Pohl, B. C. Bhatt, N. Keenlyside, and A. S. Nkwinkwa Njouodo, 2018: Insights into the Summer Diurnal Cycle over Eastern South Africa. Monthly Weather Review, 146, 4339-4356
  61. Luo, F., S. Li, Y. Gao, L. Svendsen, T. Furevik, and N. Keenlyside, 2018: The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon since the Industrial Revolution is intrinsic to the climate system. Environmental Research Letters, 13, 094020.
  62. Svendsen, L., N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, and Y. Gao, 2018: Pacific contribution to the early 20th century warming in the Arctic. Nat. Clim. Change, 8, 793-797
  63. Nkwinkwa Njouodo, A. S., S. Koseki, N. Keenlyside, M. Rouault, Atmospheric signature of the Agulhas Current, GRL, 45, 5185-5193
  64. Lübbecke, J. F., B. Rodríguez-Fonseca, I. Richter, M. Martín-Rey, T. Losada, I. Polo, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2018: Equatorial Atlantic variability—Modes, mechanisms, and global teleconnections. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, 9, e527.
  65. Årthun, M., E.W. Kolstad, T. Eldevik, N.S. Keenlyside, 2018, Time scales and sources of European temperature variability, GRL, 45, 3597-3604.
  66. Hand, R., N.S. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani, J. Bader, and R. J. Greatbatch, 2018: The role of local sea surface temperature pattern changes in shaping climate change in the North Atlantic sector. Clim Dyn., published online 
  67. Ogawa, F., N. Keenlyside, Y. Gao, T. Koenigk, S. Yang, L. Suo, T. Wang, G. Gastineau, T. Nakamura, H. N. Cheung, N.-E. Omrani, J. Ukita, and V. Semenov, 2018: Evaluating impacts of the Arctic sea-ice loss on the northern hemisphere climate changes, GRL, 45, 3255-3263.
  68. Tchipalanga, P.,  M. Dengler, P. Brandt, R. Kopte, M. Macuéria, P. Coelho, M. Ostrowski, N.S. Keenlyside, 2018: Eastern boundary circulation and hydrography off Angola – building Angolan oceanographic capacities, BAMS, in press
  69. King, M. P., I. Herceg-Bulić, I. Bladé, J. García-Serrano, N. Keenlyside, F. Kucharski, C. Li, S. Sobolowski, 2018: Importance of late fall ENSO teleconnection in the Euro- Atlantic sector, BAMS, in press
  70. Collins, M., S. Minobe, M. Barreiro, S. Bordoni, Y. Kaspi, A. Kuwano-Yoshida, N. Keenlyside, E. Manzini, C. H. O’Reilly, R. Sutton, S.-P. Xie, and O. Zolina, 2018: Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics. Nature Climate Change, 8, 101-108.
  71. Luo, F., S. Li, Y. Gao, N. Keenlyside, L. Svendsen, T. Furevik, 2018: The connection between the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Indian Summer Monsoon in the CMIP5 models, Clim. Dyn., 1-17.
  72. Cheung, H. H. N., N. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani, and W. Zhou, 2018: Remarkable link between projected uncertainties of Arctic sea-ice decline and winter Eurasian climate. Adv. Atm. Sci., 35, 38-51.
  73. King, M. P., I. Herceg-Bulić, F. Kucharski, and N. Keenlyside, 2018: Interannual tropical Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies teleconnection to Northern Hemisphere atmosphere in November. Climate Dynamics, 50, 1881-1899. 
  74. Shen, M.-L., N. Keenlyside, B. C. Bhatt, and G. S. Duane, 2017: Role of atmosphere-ocean interactions in supermodeling the tropical Pacific climate. Chaos: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Nonlinear Science, 27, 126704.
  75. Sillmann, J., T. Thorarinsdottir, N. Keenlyside, N. Schaller, L. V. Alexander, G. Hegerl, S. I. Seneviratne, R. Vautard, X. Zhang, and F. W. Zwiers, 2017: Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities. WACE, 18, 65-74.
  76. Gleixner, S., N. S. Keenlyside, T. D. Demissie, F. Counillon, Y. Wang, and E. Viste, 2017: Seasonal predictability of Kiremt rainfall in coupled general circulation models. ERL, 12, 114016.
  77. Zanchettin, D., C. Gaetan, M. W. Arisido, K. Modali, T. Toniazzo, N. Keenlyside, and A. Rubino, 2017: Structural decomposition of decadal climate prediction errors: A Bayesian approach. Scientific Reports, 7, 12862.
  78. Nnamchi, H. C., F. Kucharski, N. S. Keenlyside, and R. Farneti, 2017: Analogous seasonal evolution of the South Atlantic SST dipole indices. ASL, 18, 396-402.
  79. Koseki, S., N. Keenlyside, T. Demissie, T. Toniazzo, F. Counillon, I. Bethke, M. Ilicak, and M.-L. Shen, 2018: Causes of the large warm bias in the Angola-Benguela Frontal Zone in the Norwegian Earth System ModelClim. Dyn., 50(11), 4651-4670, 10.1007/s00382-017-3896-2.
  80. Tseng, W.-L., H.-H. Hsu, N. Keenlyside, C.-W. June Chang, B.-J. Tsuang, C.-Y. Tu, and L.-C. Jiang, 2017: Effects of Surface Orography and Land–Sea Contrast on the Madden–Julian Oscillation in the Maritime Continent: A Numerical Study Using ECHAM5-SIT. J. Clim., 30, 9725-9741
  81. Richter, I., T. Doi, S. K. Behera, and N. Keenlyside, 2017: On the link between mean state biases and prediction skill in the tropics: an atmospheric perspective. Climate Dynamics.
  82. Årthun, M., T. Eldevik, E. Viste, H. Drange, T. Furevik, H. L. Johnson, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2017: Skillful prediction of northern climate provided by the ocean. Nature Communications, 8, 15875.
  83. Wang, Y., Counillon, F., I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, Marc Bocquet, and Mao-lin Shen, 2017: Optimising assimilation of hydrographic profiles into isopycnal ocean models with ensemble data assimilation, Oce. Mod., 114 33–44
  84. Gleixner, S., N. Keenlyside, E. Viste, and D. Korecha, 2017: The El Niño effect on Ethiopian summer rainfall. Clim. Dyn., 49, 1865-1883.
  85. Cabos, W., D. V. Sein, J. G. Pinto, A. H. Fink, N. V. Koldunov, F. Alvarez, A. Izquierdo, N. Keenlyside, and D. Jacob, 2017: The South Atlantic Anticyclone as a key player for the representation of the tropical Atlantic climate in coupled climate models. Climate Dynamics, 48, 4051-4069.
  86. Counillon, F., N. Keenlyside, I. Bethke, Y. Wang, S. Billeau, M.-L. Shen, and M. Bentsen 2016: Flow dependent assimilation of SST in isopycnal coordinate with the Norwegian Climate Prediction Model. Tellus A, 68, 32437
  87. Mohino, E., N.Keenlyside, H.Pohlmann, 2016: Decadal prediction of Sahel rainfall: where does the skill (or lack of) come from?, Clim. Dyn. 47 (11), 3593-3612
  88. Mechoso, C. R., T. Losada, S. Koseki, E. Mohino-Harris, N. Keenlyside, A. Castaño-Tierno, T. A. Myers, B. Rodriguez-Fonseca, and T. Toniazzo, 2016: Can reducing the incoming energy flux over the Southern Ocean in a CGCM improve its simulation of tropical climate? Geophysical Research Letters, 43, 11,057-11,063.
  89. Reintges, A., T. Martin, M. Latif, and N. S. Keenlyside, 2016: Uncertainty in 21st Century Projections of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CMIP3 and CMIP5 models. Clim. Dyn., 1-17
  90. Dieppois, B., B. Pohl, M. Rouault, M. New, D. Lawler, and N. Keenlyside, 2016: Interannual to Interdecadal variability of winter and summer southern African rainfall, and their teleconnections. JGR Atmos., 121, 6215-6239.
  91. Nnamchi, H. C., J. Li, F. Kucharski, I.-S. Kang, N. Keenlyside, P. Chang, and R. Farneti, 2016: An equatorial-extratropical dipole structure of the Atlantic Niño. J. Clim.29, 7295-7311.
  92. Shen, M.-L., N. Keenlyside, F. Selten, W. Wiegerinck, and G. S. Duane, 2016: Dynamically combining climate models to “supermodel” the tropical Pacific. GRL, 43, 359-366.
  93. Ogawa, F., N.-E. Omrani, K. Nishii, H. Nakamura, and N. Keenlyside, 2015: Ozone-induced climate change propped up by the Southern Hemisphere oceanic front. Geophys. Res. Lett, 42, 10,056-10,063.
  94. Nnamchi, H.C., J. Li,, F. Kucharski, I.-S. Kang , N.S. Keenlyside, P. Chang and R.Farneti, Thermodynamic Controls of the Atlantic Niño, Nat. Comm. 6:8895 
  95. Mecking, J., N.S. Keenlyside, R.J. Greatbatch, Multiple Timescales of Stochastically Forced North Atlantic Ocean Variability: A model study, Oce. Dyn., 1-15
  96. Chang, C.-W. J., W.-L. Tseng, H.-H. Hsu, N. Keenlyside, and B.-J. Tsuang, 2015: The Madden-Julian Oscillation in a warmer world. GRL, 42, 6034-6042.
  97. Omrani, N. E., J. Bader, N. S. Keenlyside, and E. Manzini, 2016: Troposphere–stratosphere response to large-scale North Atlantic Ocean variability in an atmosphere/ocean coupled model. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1397-1415.
  98. King, M. P., M. Hell, and N. Keenlyside, 2016: Investigation of the atmospheric mechanisms related to the autumn sea ice and winter circulation link in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn., 46, 1185-1195.
  99. Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, W. Park, and S. Wahl, 2015: The Impact of Mean State Errors on the Simulated Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability. JGR Oceans, 120, 1133-1151
  100. Bellucci, A., R. Haarsma, N. Bellouin, B. Booth, C. Cagnazzo, B. v. d. Hurk, N. Keenlyside, T. Koenigk, F. Massonnet, S. Materia, and M. Weiss, 2015: Advancements in decadal climate predictability: the role of non-oceanic drivers. Rev. of Geophy., 53, 165–202
  101. Gao, Y., J. Sun, F. Li, S. He, S. Sandven, Q. Yan, Z. Zhang, K. Lohmann, N. Keenlyside, T. Furevik, and L. Suo, 2015: Arctic sea ice and Eurasian climate: A review. Adv. Atm. Sci., 32, 92-114.
  102. Tseng, W.-L., B.-J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, H.-H. Hsu, and C.-Y. Tu, 2015: Resolving the upper-ocean warm layer improves the simulation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Clim. Dyn., 44, 1487-1503.
  103. Svendsen, L., S. Hetzinger, N. S. Keenlyside, and Y. Gao, 2014: Marine-based multi-proxy reconstruction of Atlantic multi-decadal variabilityGRL, 41, 2013GL059076.
  104. Counillon, F., I. Bethke, N. Keenlyside, M. Bentsen, L. Bertino, and F. Zheng, 2014: Seasonal-decadal prediction with the EnKF and NorESM: a twin experimentTellus A, 66, 21074
  105. Ba, J., N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, W. Park, H. Ding, K. Lohmann, J. Mignot, M. Menary, O. Otterå, B. Wouters, D. Salas y Melia, A. Oka, A. Bellucci, and E. Volodin, 2014: A multi-model comparison for Atlantic multidecadal variability. Clim. Dyn., 1-16
  106. Mecking, J.V., N.S. Keenlyside, and R.J. Greatbatch 2014: Stochastically-forced multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic: A model study, Clim. Dyn., 1-18
  107. Gleixner, S., N. Keenlyside, K. Hodges, W.-L. Tseng and L. Bengtsson 2014: An inter-hemispheric comparison of the Tropical Storm response to global warmingClim. Dyn., 42, 2147-2157
  108. Svendsen, L., N.G. Kvamstø, and N.S. Keenlyside, 2014: Weakening AMOC connects Equatorial Atlantic and Pacific interannual variability. Clim. Dyn., 1-11
  109. Omrani, N.-E., N. S. Keenlyside, J. Bader and E. Manzini, 2014: Stratosphere key for wintertime atmospheric response to warm Atlantic decadal conditionsClim. Dyn., 42:649–663
  110. Gulev, S.K., M. Latif, N. Keenlyside, W. Park, and K. P. Koltermann, 2013: North Atlantic Ocean Control on Surface Heat Flux at Multidecadal Timescales, Nature, 499, 464-467
  111. Keenlyside, N., H. Ding, and M. Latif, 2013: Potential of Equatorial Atlantic Variability to Enhance El Niño PredictionGRL, 40, 2278-2283.
  112. Hand, R., N. S. Keenlyside, N.-E. Omrani and M. Latif, 2013: Simulated response to inter-annual SST variations in the Gulf Stream region, Clim. Dyn., 1-17
  113. Pohlmann, H., D. Smith, M. A. Balmaseda, N. S. Keenlyside, S. Masina, D. Matei, W. A. Müller, and P. Rogel, 2013: Predictability of the mid-latitude Atlantic meridional overturning circulation in a multi-model system. Clim. Dyn., 41, 775-785
  114. Ba, J., N. Keenlyside, W. Park, M. Latif, E. Hawkins, and H. Ding, 2013: A mechanism for Atlantic multidecadal variability in the Kiel Climate Model. Clim. Dyn., 41, 2133-2144
  115. Ding, H., N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif (2012), Impact of the Equatorial Atlantic on the El Niño Southern OscillationClim. Dyn.38(9), 1965-1972.
  116. Meng, Q., M. Latif, W. Park, N. Keenlyside, V. Semenov, and T. Martin 2012: Twentieth century Walker Circulation change: data analysis and model experiments, Clim. Dyn.38(9), 1757-1773
  117. Hetzinger, S., J. Halfar, J. V. Mecking, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Kronz, R. S. Steneck, W. H. Adey, and P. A. Lebednik 2012: Marine proxy evidence linking decadal North Pacific and Atlantic climateClim. Dyn.39, 1447-1455
  118. Champion, A. J., K. I. Hodges, L. O. Bengtsson, N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Esch, 2011: Impact of increasing resolution and a warmer climate on extreme weather from Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones. Tellus, 63, 893-906.
  119. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, S. Koumoutsaris, M. Zahn, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: The changing atmospheric water cycle in Polar Regions in a warmer climate. Tellus, 63, 907-920.
  120. Bader, J., M. D. S. Mesquita, K. I. Hodges, N. Keenlyside, S. Østerhus, and M. Miles, 2011: A review on Northern Hemisphere sea-ice, storminess and the North Atlantic Oscillation: Observations and projected changes. Atmos. Res., 101, 809-834.
  121. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2011: A perspective on decadal climate variability and predictability. Deep Sea Research, 58, 1880-1894.
  122. Hawkins, E., J. Robson, R. Sutton, D. Smith, and N. Keenlyside, 2011: Evaluating the potential for statistical decadal predictions of sea surface temperatures with a perfect model approach. Clim. Dyn., 1-15.
  123. Tozuka, T., T. Doi, T. Miyasaka, N. Keenlyside, and T. Yamagata, 2011: Key factors in simulating the equatorial Atlantic zonal sea surface temperature gradient in a coupled general circulation model. JGR Oce., 116.
  124. Wahl, S., M. Latif, W. Park, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: On the Tropical Atlantic SST warm bias in the Kiel Climate ModelClim. Dyn., 36, 891-906
  125. Keenlyside, N. S., and J. Ba, 2010: Prospects for decadal climate prediction, WIRES, 1, 627-635
  126. Semenov, V. A., M. Latif, D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside, A. Strehz, T. Martin, and W. Park, 2010: The Impact of North Atlantic-Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature. J. Clim., 23, 5668-5677.
  127. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2010: Equatorial Atlantic interannual variability: the role of heat content, JGR Oce., 115, C09020
  128. Lübbecke, J. F., C. W. Böning, N. S. Keenlyside, and S.-P. Xie, 2010: On the connection between Benguela and Equatorial Atlantic Niños and the role of the South Atlantic Anticyclone, JGR Oce., 115, C09015
  129. Lan, Y. Y., B. J. Tsuang, N. Keenlyside, S. L. Wang, C. T. A. Chen, B.J. Wang, and T.H Liu, 2010: Error estimations of dry deposition velocities of air pollutants using bulk sea surface temperature under common assumptions. Atm. Env., 44, 2532-2542
  130. Weisheimer, A., F.J. Doblas-Reyes, T.N. Palmer, A. Alessandri, A. Arribas, M. Deque, N. Keenlyside, M. MacVean, A. Navarra, and P. Rogel, 2009: ENSEMBLES - a new multi-model ensemble for seasonal-to-annual predictions: Skill and progress beyond DEMETER in forecasting tropical Pacific SSTs, GRL, 36, L21711
  131. Meehl, G. A., L. Goddard, J. Murphy, R. J. Stouffer, G. Boer, G. Danabasoglu, K. Dixon, M. A. Giorgetta, A. Greene, E. Hawkins, G. Hegerl, D. Karoly, N. Keenlyside, M. Kimoto, B. Kirtman, A. Navarra, R. Pulwarty, D. Smith, D. Stammer, & T. Stockdale, 2009: Decadal Prediction: Can it be skillful? BAMS, 90, 1467-1485
  132. Doblas-Reyes, F. J., A. Weisheimer, M. Déqué, N. Keenlyside, M. McVean, J. Murphy, P. Rogel, D. Smith, T. N. Palmer, 2009: Addressing model uncertainty in seasonal and annual dynamical ensemble forecasts, QJRMS, 135, 1538 - 1559
  133. Latif, M., W. Park, H. Ding, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Internal and External North Atlantic Sector Variability in the Kiel Climate Model, Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 18, 433-443
  134. Ding, H., N. S. Keenlyside, and M. Latif 2009: Seasonal cycle in the upper equatorial Atlantic Ocean, JGR., 114, C09016, doi:10.1029/2009JC005418
  135. Hodson, D. L. R., R. T. Sutton, C. Cassou, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okumura, and T. Zhou, 2009: Climate impacts of recent multidecadal changes in Atlantic Ocean Sea Surface Temperature: A Multimodel comparison. Clim. Dyn., DOI  - 10.1007/s00382-009-0571-2
  136. Zhou, T., R. Yu, J. Zhang, H. Drange, C. Cassou, C. Deser, D. L. R. Hodson, E. Sanchez-Gomez , J. Li, N. Keenlyside, X. Xin, Y. Okumura, 2009: Why the Western Pacific Subtropical High has Extended Westward since the Late 1970s?, J. Clim., 22, 2199–2215
  137. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, and N. Keenlyside, 2009: Will extra-tropical storms intensify in a warmer climate? J. Climate, 22, 2276–2301
  138. Jansen, M. F., D. Dommenget, N. S. Keenlyside,2009: Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean Interactions in a Conceptual Framework, J. Clim., 22, 550–567
  139. Park, W., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Stroeh, R. Redler, E. Roeckner, G. Madec, 2009: Tropical Pacific Climate and its Response to Global Warming in the Kiel Climate Model, J. Clim., 22 (1), 71-92
  140. Latif, M. and N. S. Keenlyside, 2009: El Niño/Southern Oscillation Response to Global Warming, PNAS, 20578-20583
  141. Sanchez-Gomez, E., C. Cassou, D. L. R. Hodson, N. Keenlyside, Y. Okmura, and T. Zhou, 2008: Multi-model signature of the Indian and Western Pacific oceans warming in the occurrence of the North Atlantic weather regimes, GRL., 35, L15706
  142. Keenlyside, N. S., M. Latif, J. Jungclaus, L. Kornblueh, and E. Roeckner, 2008: Advancing Decadal-Scale Climate Prediction in the North Atlantic Sector. Nature, 453, 84-88
  143. Matei, D., N. S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Jungclaus, 2008: Subtropical Forcing of Tropical Pacific Climate and Decadal ENSO Modulation. J. Climate, 21, 4691-4709
  144. Hetzinger, S., M. Pfeiffer, W.-C. Dullo, N.S. Keenlyside, M. Latif, and J. Zinke, 2008: Caribbean Brain Coral Tracks Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and Past Hurricane Intensity. Geology, 36, 11-14
  145. Bengtsson, L., K. I. Hodges, M. Esch, N. S. Keenlyside, L. Kornblueh, J.-J. Luo and T. Yamagata, 2007: How may Tropical Cyclones Change in a Warmer Climate? Tellus, 59A, 539-561
  146. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, A. Dürkop, 2007: On Sub-ENSO variability. J. Clim., 20, 3452–3469
  147. Latif, M., N. Keenlyside, and J. Bader, 2007: Tropical Sea Surface Temperature, Vertical Wind Shear, and Hurricane Development, GRL, 34, L01710
  148. Keenlyside, N., and M. Latif, 2007: Understanding Equatorial Atlantic Interannual Variability, J. Clim., 20, 131-142
  149. Latif, M. M. Collins, H. Pohlmann, and N. Keenlyside, 2006: A Review of Predictability Studies of Atlantic Sector Climate on Decadal Time Scales, J. Clim., 19, 5971–5987
  150. Latif, M., C. Böning, J. Willebrand, A. Biastoch, J. Dengg, N. Keenlyside, and U. Schweckendiek, G. Madec, 2006: Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing?, J. Clim., 19, 4631-4637
  151. Jungclaus, J. H., N. Keenlyside, M. Botzet, H. Haak, J.-J. Luo, M. Latif, J. Marotzke, U. Mikolajewicz, and E. Roeckner, 2006: Ocean Circulation and Tropical Variability in the Coupled Model ECHAM5/MPI-OM, J. Clim., 19, 3952-3972
  152. Wetzel, P., E. Maier-Reimer, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, N. Keenlyside, and M. Latif, 2006: Effects of Ocean Biology on the Penetrative Radiation in a Coupled Climate Model, J. Clim., 19, 3973-3987
  153. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2005: Retrospective El Niño hindcasts/forecasts using an improved intermediate coupled model, Mon. Weath. Rev., 133, 2777-2802
  154. Keenlyside, N., M. Latif, M. Botzet, J. Jungclaus, and U. Schulzweida, 2005:A coupled method for initialising ENSO forecasts using SST, Tellus, 57A, 340-356
  155. Zhang, R.-H., R. Kleeman, S. E. Zebiak, N. Keenlyside, and S. Raynaud, 2005: An empirical parameterization of subsurface entrainment temperature for improved SST anomaly simulations in an intermediate ocean model, J. Clim., 18(2), 350-371
  156. Palmer, T.N., A. Alessandri, U. Andersen, P. Cantelaube, M. Davey, P. Délécluse, M. Déqué, E. Díez, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, H. Feddersen, R. Graham, S. Gualdi, J.-F. Guérémy, R. Hagedorn, M. Hoshen, N. Keenlyside, M. Latif, A. Lazar, E. Maisonnave, V. Marletto, A. P. Morse, B. Orfila, P. Rogel, J.-M. Terres and M. C. Thomson, 2004: Development of a European multimodel ensemble for seasonal-to-interannual prediction (DEMETER), BAMS, 85(6), 853-872
  157. Zhang, R.-H., S. E. Zebiak, R. Kleeman, and N. Keenlyside, 2003: A new intermediate coupled model for El Niño simulation and prediction, GRL, 30, 2012, doi:10.1029/2003GL018010
  158. Keenlyside, N., and R. Kleeman, 2002: Annual cycle of equatorial zonal currents in the Pacific, J. Geophys. Res., 107 (8), 10.1029/2000JC000711
  159. Arif, I., I. A. Newman, and N. Keenlyside, 1995: Theoretical paper: Proton flux measurements from tissues in buffered solution, Plant, Cell and Environment, 18,1319-1324 

Book chapters (peer reviewed)

Non-peer-reviewed publications


2023-2024, EU ERC Proof of Concept, Towards Operational Supermodel Climate Prediction (TOSCP)

2022-2026, EU Horizon Europe, Impetus4Change (I4C): Improving Near-Term Climate Predictions For Societal Transformation

2022-2026, NFR CHINOR, Accelerated Arctic and Tibetan Plateau Warming: Processes and Combined Impact on Eurasian Climate (COMBINED)

2022-2026, BCCR strategic project, Proxy Assimilation for Reconstructing Climate and Improving Model (PARCIM)

2021-2023, Russian MEGAGRANT, Climate predictability in Northern Eurasia: revealingmechanisms of variability to improve skill

2021-2025, EU H2020, NextGEMS - Next Generation Earth Modelling Systems

2021-2023, EU H2020, MSCA IF BENGUP - Climate and marine-ecosystem predictions in the Angola-Benguela Upwelling System

2020-2028, RCN SFI Climate Futures

2019-2023, EU H2020, South and Tropical Atlantic Climate-Based Marine Ecosystem Prediction for Sustainable Management (TRIATLAS)

2018-2023, Trond Mohn Foundation, Bjerknes Climate Prediction Unit (BCPU)

2020-2023, JPI Climate JPI Oceans, The Role of Ocean Dynamics and Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions in Driving Climate Variations and Future Projections of Impact-Relevant Extreme Events (ROADMAP)

2020-2023, JPI Climate JPI Oceans, Improving the representation of small-scale nonlinear ocean-atmosphere interactions in Climate Models by an innovative joint observing and modelling approaches (EUREC4AOA)

2020-2023, Belmont Forum, Rapid Arctic environmental Changes: implications for well-being, resilience and Evolution of Arctic communities (RACE)

Previous projects that I have led

2015-2021, ERC Consolidator Grant, Synchronisation to enhance reliability of climate prediction (STERCP)

2014-2016 NordForsk TRI, Impact of Future Cryospheric Changes on Northern Hemisphere. Climate, Green Growth and Society (GREENICE)

2013-2017 NFR, Enhancing seasonal-to-decadal Prediction Of Climate for the North Atlantic Sector and Arctic (EPOCASA)

2014-2017 EU FP7, Enhancing prediction of Tropical Atlantic climate and its impacts (PREFACE)

2008-2013 Emmy Noether research group funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG): "Mechanisms and predictability of North Atlantic Decadal Climate variability"


How predictable is climate? Answering this question is my long-term research goal and that of my research group—Climate Dynamics and Predictability Laboratory

About me

I am a climate researcher with a broad range of interests that extend from climate dynamics to understand the impacts of climate on marine ecosystems, and to the development of climate services. I received a PhD in meteorology from Monash University in 2002. I am a professor in Tropical Meteorology at the University of Bergen since 2011. Prior to this I worked in German at the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology (2001-2003) and at GEOMAR (2003-2011). I have received prestigious the German Research Foundation (DFG) Emmy Noether Award, the European Research Council (ERC) Consolidator Grant, and a Mega-grant of the Government of the Russian Federation. I am currently co-chair of the WCRP CLIVAR Climate Dynamics Panel. I have led major national and international projects, including from the European Union, NordForsk, Resarch Council of Norway, and the Trond Mohn Foundation.

My research focuses on the role of the ocean in climate system, with studies on ocean-atmosphere interaction in all of the ocean basins and from diurnal to centennial timescales. To gain a deeper understanding of climate dynamics I combine numerical models (conceptual to full complexity Earth System Models) and observations, using advanced statistical analysis and novel experimental designs. Among my key achievements is to be the first to show that North Atlantic climate could be predicted on decadal timescales (Keenlyside et al., Nature, 2008), a result that helped initiate the field of near-term climate prediction. I have led the development of the Norwegian Prediction model and of novel approaches to reduce model systematic error (i.e., supermodelling). I have a great interest in interdisciplinary research, and have collaborated with ecologists, social anthropologists, climate historians, political scientists and economists. I have also played a leading role in the development of applied research in the field of climate services (e.g., SFI Climate Futures). 

My group

My research group is mainly supported by external funding (projects indicated in brackets) 

PhD students

  • Ashneel Chandra (UiB, Ocean States)
  • Hsin-Yu Chu (Climate Futures)
  • Lilian Carolina Garcia Oliva (UiB/NERSC, BCPU)
  • Marianne Williams-Kerslake (NERSC, PRIMA)

Postdoctoral Scientists

  • Akhilesh Nair (Climate Futures)
  • Fangxing Tian (NextGEMS, EURECAA4OA)


  • Sebastien Barthelemy (BCPU, I4C)
  • Ingo Bethke (BCPU, Climate Futures)
  • Filippa Fransner (TRIATLAS)
  • Shunya Koseki (EURECA4OA, TRIATLAS)
  • Fei Li (COMBINED, Nansen Legacy)
  • Nour-Eddine Omrani (BCPU, ROADMAP)
  • David Rivas (TRIATLAS)
  • Francine Schevenhoven (ERC POC, I4C)
  • Mao-Lin Shen (ROADMAP)

Support staff

  • Ping-Gin Chui, software engineer (INES, BCPU, Climate Futures)
  • Mariko Koseki, software engineer (BCPU, Climate Futures)
  • Mahaut de Vareilles, project manager (BCPU)

Research groups