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  • E-mailSveinung.Arnesen@uib.no
  • Phone+47 55 58 25 58+47 995 32 496
  • Visitor Address
    Christiesgt. 17
  • Postal Address
    Postboks 7802
    5020 BERGEN

My research interests revolve around political behavior and democratic theory. More specifically, they include political and civic participation, voting behavior, public opinion, election forecasting, collective wisdom, political legitimacy, and more. I also take an interest in political methodology, and have conducted studies based on survey experiments, time series data, and multi level structured data.

Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences

The American Political System

 

Academic article
  • 2019. Påvirker det å bli informert om konsekvenser av endringer i stortingvalgordningen velgernes holdninger til den? En surveyeksperimentell tilnærming. Norsk Statsvitenskapelig Tidsskrift. 62-76.
  • 2019. Do immigration scenarios influence Norwegians’ attitudes towards immigrants? A survey experiment. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 123-139.
  • 2019. Do citizens make inferences from political candidate characteristics when aiming for substantive representation? Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 46-60.
  • 2019. Conditional Legitimacy: How Turnout, Majority Size and Outcome Affect Perceptions of Legitimacy in EU Membership Referendums. European Union Politics. 176-197.
  • 2018. Explaining variance in the accuracy of prediction markets. International Journal of Forecasting. 408-419.
  • 2018. Could information about herd immunity help us achieve herd immunity? Evidence from a population representative survey experiment. Scandinavian Journal of Public Health. 854-858.
  • 2017. The Legitimacy of Representation: How Descriptive, Formal, and Responsiveness Representation Affect the Acceptability of Political Decisions. Comparative Political Studies. 868-899.
  • 2017. Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favourability: Results from General Population Survey Experiments. Political Studies. 146-161.
  • 2017. Do Polls Influence Opinions? Investigating Poll Feedback Loops Using the Novel Dynamic Response Feedback Experimental Procedure. Social science computer review. 735-743.
  • 2016. Using prediction market data for measuring the expected closeness in electoral research. Electoral Studies: an international journal on voting and electoral systems and strategy. 144-150.
  • 2016. Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. Nordiske organisasjonsstudier. 53-73.
  • 2014. Prediction Markets vs Polls – an Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections. The Journal of Prediction Markets. 24-33.
  • 2013. ACCURACY AND BIAS IN EUROPEAN PREDICTION MARKETS. Statistica Applicata. 123-138.
  • 2012. Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office. International Journal of Forecasting. 789-796.
  • 2011. Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 99-121.
  • 2011. How prediction markets help us understand events‵ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections. The Journal of Prediction Markets. 42-63.
Report
  • 2019. Frivillighetens grunnfjell: Hvem gir mest tid og penger til frivillige organisasjoner? 2019:1. 2019:1. .
  • 2018. Organisasjonsengasjement blant innvandrarar. 3. 3. .
  • 2018. Norwegian Citizen Panel 2018: Study Documentation and data set. .
  • 2017. Do Polls Influence Opinions? Testing the Spiral of Silence using a Dynamic Response Feedback Algorithm. 1. 1. .
  • 2013. Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. 2013:001. 2013:001. .
  • 2013. Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. .
  • 2013. Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. .
  • 2013. Frivillig deltakelse i Norden : Et komparativt perspektiv. 2013-2. 2013-2. .
  • 2009. Penger og politikk. .
Popular scientific lecture
  • 2008. Prediksjon av det amerikanske presidentvalget 2008.
Academic lecture
  • 2019. The Bounded Legitimacy of Majority Rule.
  • 2018. By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums.
  • 2018. By What Authority? Uncovering the Conditional Mandate from Referendums.
  • 2017. Referendums as the wiggle room of democracy.
  • 2015. Opinion Polls’ Effect on Public Opinion - Presentation of A Time Series Survey Experiment Design.
  • 2015. Opinion Polls' Effect on Political Attitudes - Results from a time-series survey experiment in a general population web panel.
  • 2015. Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion? A time-series surey experiment on the effect of polls on public opinion.
  • 2014. The legitimacy of collective decisions – Results from a real money experiment in a general population survey.
  • 2014. The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy.
  • 2014. The legitimacy of collective decisions – A survey experimental approach to the micro foundations of political legitimacy.
  • 2012. Valgdeltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011.
  • 2011. How prediction markets can help us understand events´impact on the vote in presidential elections.
  • 2009. Kan man forutsi valgresultater? Resultater fra de amerikanske presidentvalgene i 2004 og 2008.
Reader opinion piece
  • 2008. Ingen sviktende prediksjoner. Morgenbladet.
Book review
  • 2009. Amerikansk politikk - politisk system og politisk tenkning. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 403-405.
Feature article
  • 2015. Valgets egentlige helter. Bergens Tidende.
Doctoral dissertation
  • 2012. Leaping into the unknown: Comparing, testing and applying methods of predicting elections.
Interview
  • 2013. Valg i P2.
  • 2013. Pølser og politikk.
  • 2013. Norway's centre-right on course for election win.
  • 2013. History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September’s elections.
  • 2013. Following Monday’s elections, Norway has taken a firm step to the right.
  • 2013. Els candidats han eludit la massacre d'Utoya en campanya.
  • 2013. Dette står på spill.
  • 2011. Valgkommentar i Vestlandsrevyen, NRK Hordaland.
  • 2008. Kjøpe aksjar på valresultat?
  • 2008. Kjøpe Siv-aksjer?
Programme participation
  • 2013. TV-intervju om regjeringssammensetningen.
  • 2013. Studio BT, valgsending.
  • 2013. Studio BT, valgsending.
  • 2013. Studio BT, valgsending.
Academic chapter/article/Conference paper
  • 2017. Har kommunevalgkampen noen betydning? 18 pages.
  • 2015. Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkte und in Umfragen. 23 pages.
  • 2013. Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. 26 pages.
  • 2012. Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner. 23 pages.
  • 2012. Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse. 34 pages.
Academic literature review
  • 2008. Always with the drama. 20-22.

More information in national current research information system (CRIStin)

Published or forthcoming in refereed journals

Strijbis, Oliver, Sveinung Arnesen, and Lauren Bernhard (2016): "Using Prediction Market Data for Measuring Expected Closeness in Electoral Research.", Electoral Studies.

Arnesen, Sveinung (in press): "Legitimacy from Decision-Making Influence and Outcome Favorability", Political Studies.

Arnesen, Sveinung and Oliver Strijbis (2015):"Accuracy and Bias in European Prediction Markets", in Statistica Applicata - Italian Journal of Applied Statistics. Special issue on election forecasting techniques.

Arnesen, Sveinung and Ole J. Bergfjord (2015): "Prediction Markets vs Polls - An Examination of Accuracy for the 2008 and 2012 Elections." Journal of Prediction Markets, 8(3), p. 24-33.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Forecasting Norwegian elections: Out of work and out of office". International Journal of Forecasting 01/2012; 28(4):789–796. Full-text freely available here.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "Informasjon, motivasjon, prediksjon: Eit forsøk med prediksjonsmarknad før stortingsvalet 2009". Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning. 2011 ;Volum 52.(1) s. 99-121

Arnesen, Sveinung (2011): "How prediction markets help us understand events‘ impact on the vote in US Presidential Elections". Journal of Prediction Markets. 5(3), 42-63.

 

Book chapters
Arnesen, Sveinung (2015): Aktivierung und Überzeugung auf Prognosemärkten und in Umfragen, in Oliver Strijbis and Kai-Uwe Schnapp (Eds.), Aktivierung und Überzeugung im Bundestagswahlkampf 2013, Springer DE.

Christensen, Dag Arne, and Sveinung Arnesen (2013): Deltakelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011, in Et robust lokaldemokrati - lokalvalget i skyggen av 22. juli 2011. Abstrakt forlag 2013, ISBN 978-92-7935-342-3. s. 47-72.

 

Most recent conference paper

Arnesen, Sveinung, Stefan Dahlberg, and Jonas Linde (2015): "Not only measuring but also shaping the opinion?" The 2015 American Political Science Association Conference, at San Fransisco, CA.

Arnesen, Sveinung, and Yvette Peters (2015): "The Legitimacy of Representation. Selection Procedures and Socio-economic Characteristics of Representatives in Decision-making Processes." Paper presented at the 5th Annual General Conference of the European Political Science Association, At Wien, Austria.

Degree dissertation

 Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): Leaping into the unknown - Comparing, testing and applying methods of predicting elections. PhD thesis, University of Bergen.

Book reviews
Josefsen, Eva og Jo Saglie (red): Sametingsvalg – Velgere, partier, medier. Oslo: Abstrakt forlag. 2011. 273 pages. Reviewed in Norwegian Journal of Political Science 2013, No. 1:75-78.

Bjørn Erik Rasch (red.): Amerikansk politikk – politisk system og politisk tenkning. Oslo:Abstrakt forlag. 2008. 326 pages. Tidsskrift for samfunnsforskning 2009 - 3:403-405

 

Reports
Christensen, Dag Arne, Sveinung Arnesen, Guro Ødegård, and Johannes Bergh (2013): Valgdeltagelsen ved kommunestyrevalget 2011. Oslo: Institute for social research 2013 (ISBN 978-82-7763-405-0) 117 pages. ISF report (2013:001).

Klausen, Jan Egil, Sveinung Arnesen, Dag Arne Christensen, Bjarte Folkestad, Gro Sandkjær Hanssen, Marte Winswold, and Jacob Aars (2013): Medvirkning med virkning? Innbyggermedvirkning i den kommunale beslutningsprosessen. Joint report NIBR/Uni Rokkan Centre. 

Arnesen, Sveinung, Bjarte Folkestad and Dag Arne Christensen (2012): "Sosial forankring og aktivt medlemskap i frivillige organisasjoner", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p. 27-49.

Wollebæk, Dag, and Sveinung Arnesen (2012): "Konsekvenser av organisasjonsaktivitet for yrkesdeltakelse", in Deltagelse i frivillige organisasjoner: Forutsetninger og effekter, Bernard Enjolras, K. Steen-Johnsen and G. Ødegård (eds.). Report, Centre for Research on Civil Society and Voluntary Research, Bergen/Oslo, Norway, p.125-158.

Rydland, Tore, Sveinung Arnesen and Åse Gilje Østensen (2008): "Contextual data for the European Social Survey. An Overview and assessment of extant resources." Report prepared for the European Social Survey. NSD Report No. 124, Norwegian Social Science Data Services (NSD).

 

Selected dissemination texts
Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "Following Monday ́s Election, Norway has taken a firm step to the right". Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2013): "History suggests that Norway is in line for a change of government in September ́s elections." Comment article on London School of Economics ́ EUROPP blog.

Arnesen, Sveinung (2012): "Velgerpreferanser og valgkamp", in Replikk, No. 34, 21-36.

 

 

 

 

 

PhD in Comparative Politics.

The European Internet Panel Study - EIPS

 

The Digital Social Science Core Facilities - DIGSSCORE

The Digital Social Science Core Facility (DIGSSCORE) is an infrastructure for advanced social science data collection and multi-disciplinary research at the University of Bergen. DIGSSCORE extends the successful probability-based internet-panel which was established at the University of Bergen in 2012, The Norwegian Citizen Panel, and will integrate it with a fully equipped on-site social science digital research lab, The Citizen Lab, starting August 2016. The facility takes advantage of changes in technology and research methodology that combine to bring computer laboratory research and survey studies ever closer together. This environment is designed to maximize opportunities for scientific innovation and collaboration in the social sciences and multidisciplinary research.

 

The Norwegian Citizen Panel
Norwegian Citizen Panel is a web-based survey of Norwegians’ opinions toward important societal matters. Social scientists from the University of Bergen and The Rokkan Center run the panel, which is a non-profit project exclusively used for research purposes. The participants represent a cross-section of the Norwegian population, who will be invited a few times a year to give their opinion on important questions to Norwegian society and politics.

 

The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections - EPMIPE

The European Prediction Market Infrastructure for Political Elections develops and facilitates the use of prediction market software for use in relation to political elections and popular votes. The software has been employed to Norwegian national elections, German national elections, Spanish national and regional elections, and to Swiss national elections and popular votes. The data generated from this project have resulted in publications in peer reviewed channels such as Electoral Studies, International Journal of Forecasting, Italian Journal of Applied Statistics, Journal of Prediction Markets, Journal of Social Research.

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