Forecasting populations for 195 countries to 2100 – how to incorporate effects of climate change
BCEPS invites you to join our inaugural seminar series on Climate Change and Priority Setting in Health. We aim to examine to what extent climate change can, and should, be integrated into priority setting in health.
Lecturer: Stein Erik Vollet
Professor Stein Emil Vollset leads the Future Health Scenarios team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), IHME produces forecasts of disease and injuries burden, burden of risk factors, and population size and composition.
The presentation includes key findings and methods for IHME’s forecasts of fertility, mortality, and migration across 195 countries 2017-2100. In future iterations of population forecasts the aim is to include climate change. Forecasts of disease burden due to non-optimal temperatures will be presented, and additional strategies for including climate change in the forecasting framework will be discussed.
Relevant background reading:
- Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study, The Lancet 2020
- Forecasting life expectancy, years of life lost, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 250 causes of death: reference and alternative scenarios for 2016–40 for 195 countries and territories, The Lancet 2018. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(18)31694-5/fulltext