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Bergen Centre for Ethics and Priority Setting (BCEPS)
Seminar Series | Climate Change

Forecasting populations for 195 countries to 2100 – how to incorporate effects of climate change

BCEPS invites you to join our inaugural seminar series on Climate Change and Priority Setting in Health. We aim to examine to what extent climate change can, and should, be integrated into priority setting in health.

Vollset - Climate Change and Priority Setting
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Lecturer: Stein Erik Vollet

Professor Stein Emil Vollset leads the Future Health Scenarios team at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD), IHME produces forecasts of disease and injuries burden, burden of risk factors, and population size and composition.

Abstract:
The presentation includes key findings and methods for IHME’s forecasts of fertility, mortality, and migration across 195 countries 2017-2100. In future iterations of population forecasts the aim is to include climate change. Forecasts of disease burden due to non-optimal temperatures will be presented, and additional strategies for including climate change in the forecasting framework will be discussed.

Relevant background reading: