Ukrainian return under conditions of uncertainty

Nearly 10 million Ukrainians are displaced as of February 2026, according to the United High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).

The question of whether and how Ukrainians will return is shaped by foreign policy, domestic politics, security concerns, and migration governance. In this seminar, three Ukrainian scholars explore the lived realities of Ukrainian refugees, their integration and transnational ties, and the broader geopolitical forces that influence prospects for return.

Across Europe—and in Norway in particular—Ukrainians represent the largest refugee movement since the Second World War. Their sustainable and dignified return will be crucial both for Ukraine’s long-term recovery and for how European host countries manage this crisis. Norwegian authorities currently view temporary protection as exactly that—temporary—and expect returns once the war ends.

This raises several questions.

• Under what conditions will Ukrainians want to return?
• How many are likely to go back, and how many may instead seek alternative ways to remain connected across borders?
• What will different return scenarios mean for local communities in Norway and Europe?
• And how will patterns of return shape the reconstruction of a war-torn Ukraine?

There will be three short presentations before we open up for Q&A:

• Five ways of adapting to uncertain integration between stay and return
  Tetyana Panchenko, Professor, Karazin Kharkiv National University

• Transnational practices among Ukrainian refugees in Germany
  Iryna Lapshyna, Associate Professor, Ukrainian Catholic University (Lviv)

• The geopolitics of Ukrainian return
  Victoria Vdovychenko, Co-Director, Future of Ukraine Programme (Cambridge

Moderator: Erlend Paasche, Senior Research Fellow, Institute for Social Research

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The seminar is part of a national lecture tour in the project Ukrainian Returns (2021-2027), funded by the Norwegian Directorate for Higher Education and Skills through the Nansen Support Programme for Ukraine.